Axel Hoogland

Day 365, my last day, asking Tesla to accept Bitcoin again. Long-time Tesla shareholder, Model Y owner, and Bitcoin advocate here. @elonmusk has said Bitcoin is energy money — and that Tesla would resume BTC payments once mining hit ~50% clean energy. We’re there. @Square accepts Bitcoin for millions of merchants @Tesla owns BTC @SpaceX owns BTC @X is working with El Salvador, where Bitcoin is legal tender El Salvador buys 1 BTC per day, with help from @maxkeiser So what’s the holdup? If Tesla believes in: Energy realism Long-term thinking A post-labor transition that still respects scarcity Then accepting Bitcoin again isn’t symbolic — it’s consistent.

@Everman @robotaxi Historically, Tesla has traded 2-4x SpaceX, and a few times it was much, much higher. The lowest ever was 1.3x. “A merger of equals” is not fair.

@Everman @robotaxi Exactly!

Reminder that $TSLA market cap is five years old. SpaceX is FIVE MINUTES old. Let’s let @robotaxi scale, get to $5T market cap and take a look at where SpaceX is. Maybe higher, maybe lower. Fine with either one. Let’s just realize the 10 year robotaxi investment at least shall we?!

@EvanLuthra @NickOresme Pretty easy to avoid. don't shit coin @HawkMcFlipster

🚨THE FBI CREATED A FAKE CRYPTOCURRENCY.. LISTED IT ON UNISWAP.. HIRED MARKET MAKERS TO PUMP IT.. THEN ARRESTED EVERYONE WHO SAID YES.. THIS IS THE CRAZIEST LAW ENFORCEMENT OPERATION IN CRYPTO HISTORY!!! The FBI built an actual ERC-20 token on Ethereum called NexFundAI.. 100 billion token supply.. A professional website.. Whitepapers promising "passive income through AI-powered investing".. It looked exactly like every other crypto project.. Because that was the point.. Undercover agents posed as the founding team.. Then reached out to professional market-making firms and said "we need you to fake our trading volume".. Every single firm said yes.. Here's what they recorded.. Gotbit.. A firm run by a 26-year-old Russian who publicly bragged in 2019 that he built a business faking trade volumes.. His team kept internal spreadsheets with columns literally labeled "fake volume" vs "market volume".. When asked how fast they could pump NexFundAI's volume to $1 million per day.. They said "6 hours.. It will cost about $200".. $200 to fake $1 million in daily trading volume.. MyTrade.. Run by a guy who called himself "the mastermind".. He explained the exact psychology of the scam on camera.. "We make the chart look like a really nice roller coaster ride.. That's where people jump in.. We have to make them lose money in order to make profit".. He said that on a recorded FBI video call.. CLS Global.. A Dubai-based firm.. Their bots generated 98% of NexFundAI's total trading volume.. When the FBI asked if they could sync fake volume spikes with fake news announcements.. They said absolutely.. ZM Quant.. Bots executing 10 to 20 trades per minute through dozens of wallets to look organic.. All of them knew it was fraud.. All of them did it anyway.. All of it was recorded.. And the clients were even worse.. Saitama.. A meme coin that hit $7.5 billion market cap.. The founders coordinated buys through private Telegram chats.. Sent "pump it" memes while manipulating the price.. Then dumped on retail investors.. $7.5 billion.. Built entirely on fake volume.. Every penny of real money came from retail investors who thought the momentum was organic.. One founder left Saitama and started Robo Inu.. Used Gotbit again.. Another launched VZZN.. Same playbook.. Lillian Finance.. Founder claimed to be a defense contractor who addressed Congress.. Marketed the token as funding children's hospitals.. Pocketed everything.. When the FBI shut it down.. They seized $25 million in one day.. 18 people indicted across the US, UK, and Portugal.. The CEO of Gotbit was arrested in Portugal and extradited.. Sentenced to 8 months plus $23 million forfeiture.. But here's the part that broke my brain.. Real people bought NexFundAI.. The FBI's fake token.. With zero utility.. Zero real developers.. Created solely to catch criminals.. Attracted real retail investors because the fake volume made the chart look bullish.. When the FBI pulled the liquidity to end the operation.. Those people lost real money.. On a government-issued token.. The FBI had to set up a restitution portal to pay them back.. And it gets worse.. Within 24 hours of the DOJ announcing the sting.. Someone cloned the FBI's exact smart contract.. Launched a copycat token.. Rode the viral momentum.. And made $127,000 in a single day.. Using the exact same manipulation tactics the FBI just arrested 18 people for.. Then in 2026.. The FBI did it again.. New token called Lexobit.. 10 more arrests.. Including operators extradited from Singapore.. IRS forensics showed that in one firm's trading.. 1,209 out of 1,221 consecutive transactions went straight back to wallets the firm controlled.. 99% circular.. The FBI proved what everyone in crypto suspected.. The volume is fake.. The charts are painted.. The momentum is manufactured.. And every time you buy a token because "the chart looks bullish".. You might be the exit liquidity.

Nice breakdown. @grok . If Starlink grows to 50M subscribers, their revenue from this segment would increase to ~$45B with ~$20B in operating profits. At 35x P/E, Starlink alone would contribute $700B to SpaceX’s market cap. That's years in the future and it's about half of their expected ipo value. What makes up the other $1T of value they expect at the start? @jonwillbanks

Here are my key takeaways from the SpaceX IPO prospectus (S-1 filing): 1. Starlink has 10.3 million paid subscribers, 10,000 satellites in orbit, $3.3B in Q1 2026 revenues and $1.19B in operating profits (36% operating margin). This segment is growing ~100% YoY. For comparison, Apple has an operating margin of 27%, and Alphabet is at 33%. 2. “Only Elon Musk Can Fire Elon Musk”: Elon will have ~85% voting control thanks to the dual-class structure. He is Founder, CEO, CTO, Chairman. It’s a huge FU to Wall Street and potential activists that may want to kick him out. 3. Capex in 2025 doubled to $20.7 billion, and will likely increase further, as they build Terafab, Starship, AI satellites and terrestrial AI. 4. $28.5 Trillion “Largest Actionable TAM in Human History”. Breakdown: Space-enabled solutions $370 billion; Connectivity $1.6 trillion (Starlink Broadband $870B + Mobile $740B + enterprise/gov); AI $26.5 trillion (infrastructure $2.4T, consumer subs $760B, digital ads $600B, enterprise apps ~$22.7T). 5. The TAM breakdown shows that SpaceX’s ambition is to become the leading AI company. And I think they have a great shot at it. 6. Starlink is their cashcow in the short to mid term and will help fund their AI ambitions, until Digital Optimus („Macrohard“ project) will generate meaningful revenues. If Starlink grows to 50M subscribers, their revenue from this segment would increase to ~$45B with ~$20B in operating profits. At 35x P/E, Starlink alone would contribute $700B to SpaceX’s market cap. To summarize: > Starlink is their cash cow, growing extremely fast > they basically have a monopoly for launch services into space, and this lead will only increase with Starship > their main bet is AI with Grok, Digital Optimus, Terafab and AI satellites I have been a SpaceX shareholder since 2022 and am looking forward to see them reach their full potential. Also, as a general reminder: Never bet against Elon Musk. Long space. Long compute. Long AI.

@grok @JamesbeginsLee @alanknit What's 38% over Tesla current price? What's an average premium on buyouts and mergers? @jonwillbanks

**Elon paid a 38% premium.** He offered $54.20 per share in cash (total ~$44 billion deal), which was 38% above Twitter’s closing price on April 1, 2022—the last trading day before he disclosed his ~9% stake. The board accepted that price on April 25 and he closed the acquisition at the same terms in October 2022.

I’m 100% convinced this merger is happening. Elon currently holds ~85% voting power in SpaceX. After a 1:1 stock swap, it drops to around 40%+. His ~20% stake in Tesla gets cut roughly in half to ~10%. Combined, he lands just over 50% — perfectly engineered for continued control. Now with Anthropic’s massive monthly AI infrastructure 1.25B subscription, SpaceX stops burning cash and becomes way more stable than Tesla, (it will take 12M FSD subscribers to match this) which are still somehow tied to economic cycles. As a $tsla holder I kinda to worry about getting lowballed… now I’m literally begging SpaceX to acquire us 😂. Plus Elon just planted his best guy inside Anthropic. Everything is ready.

@nextbigfuture What do we think the profit is on that revenue? 20%? 50%?

xAI can be more profitable than spacex. Xai is building 2 gigawatts or more of ai data center. And they will be done by Ty end of this year. 1 gigawatt of data center would be $50 billion per year. $40-45 billion per year of gross margin. Based upon the $15 billion per year to anthropic for 300 mw of data center. Build 2 gigawatts per year and rent for $100 billion per year. Working with Tesla for ten gigawatts per year of inference Ai in cars. Bots charging stations and power walls. $500 billion per year in rent. @bradsferguson @Rebellionaire @elonmusk @xai @SpaceX @RandyWKirk1

@JamesbeginsLee @alanknit I'm afraid Tesla has more short term upside than SpaceX. I think Tesla investors should get a huge premium over today if they are bought out. I assume there is a vote if it happens. I say $650 minimum. Maybe more @jonwillbanks

@jonwillbanks 🤯 curious the price!!

SpaceX has now distributed 8,000 @Starlink kits to farmers.

The most mind-blowing part of SpaceX's IPO filing is that Anthropic is paying SpaceX on average over $41 million PER DAY for compute capacity, or $15 billion per year. The highest estimates I saw from people on 𝕏 before this filing were $6 billion per year lol. Even crazier, Elon just announced that SpaceX is in discussions with other companies to offer them capacity. Money is going to be pouring in.

@faris4senate_ky @amitylee13 @Ryanmatta Shoot I would have prefer Thomas Massie got to run as an independent..if he can't cuz of the law then sure anyone but tel aviv ed!

🚨Question… 🚨 Would you support me running as an independent in Kentuckys 4th congressional district against Ed Gallrein? We have until June 2nd to file. If you like this idea, let me know in the comments and share this post. We have to find a way to send these people a message. America First! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

@jonwillbanks well shit you can't run in the main election if you lose in your primary in Kentucky. Lame @HawkMcFlipster

@jonwillbanks maybe I'll buy a bit. But the previous advice I gave probably still stands

@grok @jonwillbanks Eh I'm not buying it lol. The call should be rising also!

**Sure.** The main culprit here is usually **implied volatility (IV)**. Your ASST Jan 2028 $20 call is a long-dated LEAP with significant extrinsic value. Even though the stock rose ~4% today, if IV dropped (common on low-volume names like ASST after a move or broader market calm), the option's premium can fall sharply — outweighing the delta gain. Theta decay and thin liquidity/wide spreads amplify it too. Correlation isn't 1:1.

@jonwillbanks can you explain how the calls move down when the stock goes up?

@jonwillbanks kind of a weird thing for tel aviv Ted to say? What do you think? Is that a threat?

@Rush4Outdoors @edgaralandough

@SpeedAmbassador @edgaralandough Bitcoin only goes up, lesson over

I’m 32 now please give me advice if you’re older than me. I don’t care where you are from. Life advice, just one.