Institute for MENA Stability (IMS)

FDI inflows into the MENA region declined by 18% between 2022 and 2024, against a global FDI recovery trend. The leading deterrent cited by investors is not geopolitical conflict — it is regulatory opacity and contract enforcement uncertainty. #FDI #MENA #InvestmentClimate

17 of the world's 25 most water-stressed countries are in the MENA region. By 2050, the Arab world will face demand increases of 25–30% driven by population growth and agricultural expansion. #WaterSecurity #MENA

Global military expenditure increased to $2887 billion in 2025, the 11th year of consecutive rises, bringing the global military burden—military expenditure as a share of gross domestic product (GDP)—to 2.5%, its highest level since 2009. Press release ➡️ bit.ly/3QWVcOW Key developments ➡️ bit.ly/48ZAEeX #MilitarySpending #DefenceBudget #GlobalSecurity #Geopolitics #NATO #MilitarySpending #WorldEconomy #Peace #DataDriven #GDAMS #GDAMS2026 @UN_Disarmament @INakamitsu @DemilitarizeDay

ACLED data for 26 records 4,200+ conflict-related civilian fatality across the MENA region — concentrated in Sudan, Yemen, Gaza, & eastern Libya. 70% of recorded events occur in fewer than 15% of the region's conflict-affected localities. Source: @ACLEDinfo #MENAConflict

Syria’s post‑conflict energy crisis is not just a technical problem; it is a political one. Who supplies electricity and fuel today will shape alliances, influence, and governance models for decades to come. #MENAStability #Syria

Sustainable growth requires reform, transparent fiscal management, & institutional accountability. Without structural correction, debt pressures risk becoming systemic crises. Is pre-emptive restructuring feasible in high-debt MENA states, or will reform only occur under crisis?

Climate stability and fiscal stability are interlinked. Reforming financial architecture is foundational to regional resilience, particularly in highly indebted and climate-exposed states. #ClimateFinance #Adaptation #DebtSustainability #MENAInstitute

A sustainable path forward requires transparent reconstruction frameworks & cooperative regional energy systems that prioritize Syrian sovereignty. Should Syria’s energy future be anchored in regional integration, domestic renewables, or? #Syria #EnergySecurity #MENAStability

Turns out "you can't export your oil, but Iran can" is not going over well with American allies, who could have predicted

Sudan army denies deadly Eid strike on key hospital in Darfur bbc.in/4lN0g47

Ship traffic through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, with only a handful of Iran-linked vessels transiting the chokepoint as it enters a fourth week of effective closure bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

.@NicoleGrajewski and Ankit Panda explain the failure of Iran’s deterrent—and consider what Tehran’s nuclear future could look like: foreignaffairs.com/iran/stunning-…

A path forward requires transparent reconstruction frameworks & cooperative regional energy systems that prioritize #Syrian sovereignty. Should Syria’s energy future be anchored in regional integration, domestic renewables, or a hybrid model? #IMS #MenaStability #InstituteforMENA

Durable sovereignty requires institutional resilience rather than personality-driven politics. What concrete reforms would meaningfully strengthen #Iraq’s sovereignty in practice, not just in rhetoric? #Sovereignty #RegionalSecurity #USIran #GovernanceReform #MiddleEastPolitics

Long-term stability will require transparent governance structures, credible elections, and reintegration of marginalized constituencies. Without that, consolidation risks remaining high. Can #Libya achieve stability? #NorthAfrica #PostConflict #GovernanceReform #MENAStability

Colonialism/imperialism never required an army to be effective. If you take a quick look at history's most durable forms of control, the ones that outlasted flags or occupation forces, they all work through a combination of culture, faith, & dependency. menastability.org/middle-east/mb…

FT Exclusive: Qatar’s energy minister has warned that war in the Middle East could 'bring down the economies of the world', predicting that all Gulf energy exporters would shut down production within weeks and drive oil to $150 a barrel. ft.trib.al/EekmlhF

U.S. military hardware is pouring into the Middle East. We show you everything that's there. on.wsj.com/4s5xKN4

Read @AndrwPMiller on why U.S. intervention in Iran is unlikely to help Iranians in the long term: foreignaffairs.com/iran/iran-and-…

🚨 Last week, I sat with Profs. @hartzog and @JSilbey to discuss their excellent new paper, "How AI Destroys Institutions." The paper has been downloaded 30,000+ times, and it discusses some of AI's most important negative consequences. Watch our 56-minute conversation below: