Stephanie Kovalchik

Changing Places: 12-Month Adjustments at the Top of the Tennis Ratings, by @StatsOnTheT open.substack.com/pub/serioussta…

We all know about the concept of lucky losers in tennis. But what about 'lucky winners'? And were there any at the @usopen ? Find out here with the latest analysis at You Cannot Be Serious Stats open.substack.com/pub/serioussta…

Who are the top @WTA prospects for the @usopen title? Who could get the most help from the luck of the draw? Get the lowdown on these questions and more at You Cannot Be Serious Stats open.substack.com/pub/serioussta…

Do Djokovic or Alcaraz have the edge for the last Major title of 2023? And who has the tougher draw? See what the ratings breakdown of the @usopen men's seeds say at You Cannot Be Serious Stats open.substack.com/pub/serioussta…

Jessica Pegula is the player of the moment but Coco Gauff's current serve and return skill ratings are 🔥 See the @WTA skill leaderboards on You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/shes-got-ski…

Who is up and who is down when it comes to overall serve and return on @atptour ? Find out with the current serve and return leaderboards at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/hes-got-skil…

Still buzzing from the latest additions to the list of @Wimbledon champions? See how the finals were won with this new analysis on You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/how-the-titl…

If anyone was going to have a chance to defer a 24 slam title from Djokovic it's @carlosalcaraz Are there signs that Alcaraz could make this a better contest than what we saw in Paris? I think so based on the latest at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/previewing-t…

@Ons_Jabeur has already had a fairytale 2023 @Wimbledon . Can she cap it off with a title (finally)? See what each finalist's serve & return performance going into the final suggests at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/round-by-rou…

Ratings momentum can indicate when a player is performing above their current rating. Which competitors have the most momentum on serve and return ahead of the @Wimbledon main draw? See who at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/whos-got-the…

Who are the top men's and women's prospects for the @Wimbledon title this year? Is anyone close to Novak and Iga? Find these answers and more with the current grass court leaderboard at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/where-the-gr…

@spazznolo Everyone starts at 1500 and the intercept is the tour serve average for a rolling 12 month window

Performance analysis without skill adjustment? You better check yourself before you wreck yourself, and here is why... seriousstats.substack.com/p/on-the-impor…

What’s going on? It's the dramatic confounding of opponent defensive skill and what can go wrong if we don’t adjust for this. e.g. Djokovic’s sample has multiple matches vs Nadal so he looks worse than he should. Bottom line (for all tennis stats really) - context matters. (3/3)

A cautionary stats tale in 3 threads.. leading up to the men’s final @rolandgarros I was interested in how the effectiveness of Ruud and Djokovic compare by serve location. 3 seasons of clay matches show a fairly similar picture, with Ruud looking fierce on 1st to Deuce (1/3)

Clearly those numbers look counterintuitive so I wondered how they have matched up against each other. From the MCP we have their 2022 SF meeting in Rome and here Ruud looks like a totally different server with limited effectiveness across the board. (2/3)

In the @rolandgarros women's final, expect Swiatek to have a 1st serve edge out wide to Ad court and Muchova to dominate the T. Neither have a clear weapon on 2nd serve. If 1st in % is low, rallies could be decisive for today's title

When it comes to the serve patterns of the top @WTA players at @rolandgarros , nearly everyone is doing her own thing. See the panoply of types on clay at You Cannot Be Serious Stats seriousstats.substack.com/p/what-are-the…

We'll be closing our data science and product roles on June 5th. Highly encourage those interested in joining our fully remote team to get their applications in while they can :)

Which servers at @rolandgarros will have the smartest choice of serve direction? Who will be the most predictable? The answers may surprise you. See the full analysis of the clay serve patterns of the top men's seeds on You Cannot Be Serious Stats. seriousstats.substack.com/p/which-serve-…