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Summary of the current outlook of the market:
Micro outlook: 👍
▪️Many decent Alts are down a lot from their ATH (some even up to 80%+)
▪️Sentiment on CT feels like peak bear with statements like "what if there is no more bull" or "what if there is no altseason this time?"
▪️$BTC choppin around in the formed range between 60-72K
▪️Upcoming $ETH ETFs that could be the needed trigger to start the real altseaon
Macro outlook (short-mid term):👍
▪️$SPX at ATHs
(so my assumption is that $BTC is lagging here and traditional investors might eventually rotate back into crypto)
▪️Election year
(which rarely was a bearish one for traditional markets)
▪️CPI steady falling and nearing the target of 2% the FED has for a while now (approx. 3,3%)
▪️ECB already cutting interest rates so a logical assumption is that FED will follow sooner or later
Macro outlook (mid-long term): ⚡️
▪️Biggest inverted yield curve in history of mankind
(every single one ended in a massive stock crash and recession)
Why?
An inverted yield curve occurs when yields on short-term bonds rise above the yields on longer-term bonds of the same credit quality, which has proven to be a relatively reliable indicator of an economic recession.
But now the good part about that:
the markets always pumped for a couple month more after the pivot.
That means the real consequences of this monetary policy won't appear instantly, they usually followed 4-6 months after FED stopped rate hikes and started cutting interest rates again.
Assuming the pivot will happen later this year, we would have approx. 8-12 months of upside and a potential further stock + crypto run.
So whats my conclusion looking at all the data:
▪️All signs are showing a high probability of the last parabolic phase of this cycle
▪️Buying Alts now could end up as one of the best decisions if you buy the right ones, even if we chop for a bit longer
▪️Press the sell button eventually or roundtrip everything to ground zero
▪️Probability of a nasty recession in the mentioned timeframe very likely imo
Dont fuck this up and stay consistant, don't give up when things get rough.
These are the market conditions that reward you if you keep pushing when the majority loses interest again.
Want outstanding returns?
Do something different than 99% of this market then.
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