Steve Leslie

Just ran one of my weekly stock screeners... Criteria: 2026 revenue growth above 30% 2027 revenue growth above 25% 2026 ebitda growth above 40% 2027 ebitda growth above 30% 2026 ev/ebitda multiple below 25x 2027 ev/ebitda multiple below 20x Current market cap above $1 billion Results: $ALHC $APP $AVGO $BTDR $CRWV $DQ $HROW $IREN $MU $NBIS $NVDA $QXO $RDDT $SEI $SLNO $TBBB $TGTX $VSEC *for stocks with high capex it might be better to use EBIT If you see any stocks missing (that meet the criteria), feel free to comment with the ticker and I'll look it up but please double check the consensus estimates.

If Iran was strong and menacing, it has to be attacked to deal with the threat. If Iran is weak and isolated, it has to be attacked because it’s the moment of vulnerability. Is there any threshold of Iranian power that would *not* have called for attack?

Is Google search toast? Not so fast. Let's talk about $GOOG's REAL AI advantage. Alphabet has seven two-billion user products. One of these, Android, powers roughly 71-72% of all mobile handsets globally. This isn't just market share, it's: * An Unmatched Data Stream: Billions of users generate contextual signals through app usage, location data (with permission), device interactions, and more. This real-world, real-time data provides insights far richer than web searches alone. * A Direct Distribution Channel: Google can deploy its AI innovations (like Gemini) directly onto the device, integrating them seamlessly into the operating system and core apps like Maps, Photos, and the Play Store. The smartphone is the key battleground for AI integration. Combine this Android foundation with data from Search, YouTube (the world's second-largest search engine), Maps, Gmail, Chrome, etc, and you have a holistic understanding of user context, behaviour, and intent that is simply unparalleled. The future isn't necessarily fewer ads, it's better, more valuable ads powered by AI. Google is actively shifting towards this: * Beyond Search Queries: AI like Gemini can synthesise signals across the entire ecosystem. Imagine searching Maps for "pizza near me." Google's AI could see your recent searches for "healthy recipes," your fitness app usage via Android, and your YouTube history of nutrition videos. * Inferring Holistic Intent: The AI doesn't just see "pizza." It infers "pizza, but make it align with my health goals." * The High-Value Ad: Instead of just showing the closest pizzeria, Gemini (integrated into Maps) recommends one with noted healthy options (whole wheat crust, great salads), explaining why this is a great recommendation for the user. This recommendation is the ad – a highly relevant, high-intent suggestion served at the moment of need. * This hyper-personalised, high-conversion-probability lead is auctioned through Google's adtech. Advertisers could pay significantly more for this qualified lead than for a generic keyword click, potentially boosting revenue per interaction even if overall traditional search volume plateaus or dips. This is "Win-Win-Win": * Users: Get genuinely useful recommendations that match immediate needs and broader (often unstated) goals. * Advertisers: Reach exceptionally qualified customers at the point of decision, potentially improving ROAS. * Alphabet: Monetises its ecosystem more effectively through high-value, AI-driven interactions, offsetting shifts in traditional search. Of course, it's not simple and the transition faces hurdles: * Privacy is Paramount. Leveraging cross-platform data demands extreme care, transparency, user control, and navigating complex regulations. Missteps are costly. * Accurately inferring complex goals and delivering seamless AI experiences at scale is hard. Early integrations show potential but also hiccups. Alphabet needs continual heavy investment in AI Capex to fight this battle. * User Acceptance. There's a fine line between helpful personalisation and feeling "creepy." The Bottom Line: Don't underestimate Alphabet. While OpenAI makes waves, Google's deep integration across Android and its suite of two billion-user products gives it a foundational advantage in data and distribution. By leveraging AI to translate this advantage into hyper-personalised, high-value advertising moments, it has a clear pathway to not just weather the disruption, but potentially build an even more powerful and profitable advertising ecosystem for the AI era. The game is changing, but Google holds some incredibly strong cards. Disc: long $GOOG $GOOGL since 2010.