Kali
5.5K posts

Kali
@StevenMogavero
NASM CPT-CES-PES-WLS Personal trainer. Filipino martial arts instructor for hire. Please check out you tube link below.
FL Katılım Mayıs 2010
928 Takip Edilen407 Takipçiler

I’ve been wrong on $TSLA for three years now. TSLA has been my worst performing long during this time frame: down -19% vs +32% for NDX overall.
On the positive side, I got FSD right: That it would not to get to L4 for many years after Elon predicted FSD would drive itself and so I always assumed zero value for Robotaxi in my valuation. And FSD take rates have remained in the low teens even as FSD has improved significantly as a driver assist tool. I estimate FSD currently adds $.14/share to 2024 eps assuming a 12.5% global take rate, which is likely too rich.
Where I was wrong was on sharply decelerating TSLA volume growth - TSLA volume growth has slowed despite massive price cuts and EV credits. TSLA is now looking at just +15% YoY vol growth in 2024 (vs +38% YoY in 2023) including +13% in 1Q. Where I’ve been massively wrong is not anticipating that TSLA would start a price war, which has caused TSLA 2024 and 2025 earnings power to collapse (-45% over past 12 months). This has been my greatest research mistake. I always thought the $25K “model 2” could satisfy the affordability issue in MP-1 but the $25K vehicle continues to get pushed back (now late-2025 earliest) so price cuts to drive volumes were in hindsight inevitable.
Looking forward I still think I will be vindicated on $TSLA (my PT remains $290) because other EV makers will either give up or cut back on their EV investments. That said, further TSLA price cuts would crush my investment thesis that auto gross margins bottomed at 16.3% in 3Q and are now headed upward as TSLA mgmt learns that they got little from last year’s price cuts. As modest TSLA bull and my fellow Chicagoan @thejefflutz advises, TSLA COGS declines are kicking in big this year.
Last point: When I make a bad trade as I have with $TSLA, I have only myself to blame. The shorts have done little to cause $TSLA price to decline; the damage to the stock has been largely self-inflicted which I should have foreseen. As we move forward we hopefully learn from our mistakes and that applies to TSLA management as well. I still believe TSLA can get to my $290 PT but that requires management to learn how to use marketing tools other than price to drive volume, which may be a bridge too far. But I am optimistic and remain a $TSLA bull.




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@jimcramer Good I hope all the shorts got murdered thought they were smart. And all the idiots that trim their positions the big guys.
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This is the end
thereformedbroker.com/2023/11/29/thi…
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The ole, one person side hug. Curb Your Enthusiasm is coming back early 2024! You ready???
- #CherylHines

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