Steve

The minivan era is over. Elon just confirmed Tesla is working on something cooler than a minivan. Many are hoping it's a Cyber SUV built on the Cybertruck platform. Same durability. Same tech. Same futuristic design. This would be the next evolution of what an SUV should be. Who's ready to order theirs?

Falcon 1, flight one. 20 years ago today. Can you believe it? It looks like a beautiful flight until you look a little closer and see that the engine is on fire. Very short flight less than a minute up and back down to crash on the reef. We learned a lot that day.

Karin gets it right. Worth watching her interview here. The key enabler for orbital data centers is Starship V3. Long term investors are watching its flight cadence and payload dispensing capabilities. No reason to believe it won’t happen just mainly timeline implications for Starlink and AI sats. I don’t know what Fidelity spreadsheets say but for reference our initial stabs of when ODCs start to become economical are right around this green circle (depending on AI Sat power density and revenue models). Which suggests somewhere between 5-15 reuses and the beginning of scaled manufacturing. Considering booster is already in initial stages of reuse, I think 2-3 year timeframe isn’t as crazy as some would like you to believe.

China Is Repeating the Soviet Union’s Fatal Mistake Its economy looks strong on paper: a record $1.2 trillion trade surplus, dominance in EVs, solar, and shipbuilding. But the foundation is cracking. Its share of global GDP peaked at 18.5% in 2021—now down to 16.5% in 2025. Its economy has fallen from ~75% of the U.S. to under two-thirds. Why? Because Beijing shifted from wealth creation to state-driven tech and military expansion. Many of these sectors aren’t profitable. EV and solar industries are locked in brutal price wars. Chips and defense rely on massive subsidies. Meanwhile, real wealth creators are shrinking. This is the Soviet playbook: prioritize power over profit. It looked strong until it collapsed. Economics is simple: wealth first, strategy second. China reversed it. And now the cracks are showing.

For $TSLA bulls excited by a potential TSLA/SpaceX merger: If TSLA with a 100x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap buys SpaceX with a 200x EV/EBITDA and $1.5T market cap, the dilution math suggests a 20-25% reduction in TSLA value. Math: - TSLA issues $1.5T new equity for $1.5T SpaceX equity. - TSLA EBITDA of $15B/year combines with SpaceX EBITDA of $7.5B/year. - Combined entity now has $3.0T Equity and $22.5B EBITDA. TSLA has $30B net cash which is insignificant to this analysis. - Because stocks post-merger generally trade at the lowest common multiple and SpaceX future cash flows are highly uncertain, post merger TSLA/SpaceX should trade at a 100x EV/EBITDA so $2.25T. That’s a reduction of $750 billion in value (100 point multiple change x $7.5B EBITDA purchased = $750B) = 25% reduction. - The 25% value reduction is commonly referred to as a “conglomerate discount” since stocks trading separately on their own multiples and growth prospects almost always trade at higher multiples vs two companies merged together where the lowest common multiple generally prevails. - In my 30 years as a professional investor I have rarely seen post-merger companies trade at “blended multiples” based on the underlying companies’ respective multiples and growth prospects. - Financial history is littered with examples where unrelated companies with different multiples and growth prospects were merged together and the lowest common multiple won out (e.g. RJR/Nabisco, GE, ITT, Gulf & Western, Time Warner, Sara Lee, Fortune Brands, several others). - On the other hand, if SpaceX buys TSLA that could result in short term gains for TSLA shareholders but expect TSLA investors who bought TSLA for its upside in EVs, autonomy, and robots and who now own SpaceX stock to sell their shares post merger. - There can only be one multiple for a stock. With conglomerates, the least common multiple generally prevails. The notable exception to this rule has been Berkshire, because of the Warren Buffett premium that attaches to the company purchased. In short, a TSLA/SpaceX merger is a solution looking for a problem. It’s dilutive for $TSLA shareholders and so unlikely to happen.

First view of the 100kw AI Mini Sat with solar panels and heat radiator to scale. “And that’s just the Mini version. We expect future versions to go to the megawatt range.” — Elon The key missing ingredient is a terawatt of AI compute. Fully integrated fab with recursive improvement locally. Will explore non-traditional computing. Austin, TX. Optimus robots: 1-10 billion units/year. D3 chip optimized for space, designed to run hotter to minimize radiator mass. It will be the vast majority of the compute 100-200GW/yr on Earth. +1TW/yr in space because of power constraints on Earth.

Go follow Aaron. One of the best accounts on here with super high quality content 🔥

WSJ: Tesla Finally Has Its First Semi-Truck and It’s Already a Hit With Truckers. "Truckers who drove it in pilot tests say they loved features including a centered driving position, faster charging and longer range for about $100,000 less than other battery-electric trucks. Angel Rodriguez, a 56-year-old truck driver for Hight Logistics in Long Beach, Calif., recently swapped out a 13-gear diesel truck for a Tesla Semi, which is automatic, for a one-month pilot test. “It’s just easier on your body. It’s less stressful because you’re not really having to engage the clutch and the stick shift.” Big F Transport employs five mechanics to service more than 40 diesel-powered rigs and a fleet of trailer chassis in Wilmington, Calif. “If we go all EV we will only need one [mechanic] to service chassis,” said Geovanny Melendez, the carrier’s VP of operations, who went to see the Semi earlier this month at a ride-and-drive event near the Port of Long Beach. Jennie Abarca, co-founder and CEO of King Fio Trucking in Long Beach, Calif., once worked as a truck dispatcher and her husband is a truck driver, so she knows all too well the toll a diesel engine takes on people’s lungs and hearing. She eventually wants to swap out King Fio’s 27 diesel trucks to create an all-electric fleet. King Fio already has 11 battery-electric trucks from Volvo and Nikola. But the company limits those trucks to shorter trips to and from local ports because they only have a range of about 225 miles. The Semi, by contrast, can travel 500 miles on a single charge, according to Tesla. For King Fio that means two or three round-trips a day from Long Beach to warehouses in the nearby Inland Empire or a single round-trip to Las Vegas. She has 20 Semis on order. “The Teslas change everything,” Abarca said. “It opens up a whole different type of delivery that I can make.”

New Roadster unveil hopefully next month. It will be a banger next-level.