Stock Notebook

@WarMonitor3 • US/Israel hitting 500+ targets daily • Iran using direct Russian intel to strike US bases • 4,500+ US troops arrive in Middle East • Ground invasion prep underway (Kharg Island, Hormuz, or nuke raids) to break the stalemate. Massive escalation.

Iran War Update 29/03/2026: US and Israeli airforce continue widespread strikes on Iranian military production and basing, settled in at a tempo of just over 500 targets being hit a day with a wide range of bombers, sea and air launched missiles and fighter released bombs. -Iran is firing not as many but routine daily attacks on the Gulf nations using a combination of missiles and drones, it has moved its ballistic missile launch systems deep into the interior of the country and dispersed them considerably after taking heavy losses early on in the campaign on the Southern coast and near the Persian Gulf, it now aims to prolong the conflict and preserve its rocket systems in doing so. It strikes are less numerous but are getting more accurate as allied air defence munitions dwindle and its receives targeting data from Russia. -Israeli airforce has diverted focus onto Iranian conventional capabilities rather than hitting regime outposts to instigate an uprising, US has deployed 23 bombers to the UK RAF FAIRFORD which are routinely flying missions using heavy munitions to bomb underground missile production complexes, looks like their is softening operations going on around the South coast potentially to make them more weaker before a ground invasion. -Russia is supply Iran with advances intelligence data including targeting data and drones which are being shipped in through the Caspian Sea. Russian intelligence is said to behind data that lead to the Iranian missiles targeting of Prince Sultan Airbase and British Diego Garcia. -US forces are preparing for a ground invasion, this could involve capturing the Kharg island to economically strangle Iran, or the Islands immediately around the strait of Hormuz to regain control, a lot these islands host IRGC naval coastal positions which would be used to fire upon American ships, the third options involves seizing airports in the south and the North of the country possibly to perform operations to extract nuclera materials the forth and final represents a daring special forces raids into the numerous nuclear facilites. 3500 Marines and 1000 paratroopers along with several special forces detachments have already arrived in the Middle East with a lot more troops coming, US has also sent the Bush aircraft carrier to the region to replace the Gerald R Ford which is damaged and likely is out of action temporarily. The ground invasion is likely initially going to be focused on a Raid in order to force Iran to the negotiating table, it will also involve an extensive air campaign before and during it to best protect American troops on the ground.

• Tech/Mag7 down, Oil hit $113 (rate hike risk rising). • MESI sectors (Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) are the play: +13% YTD. • Strait of Hormuz escalating. • New buys: $INTC (Agentic AI CPU demand) & $META (cheap at 16x PE).

Last wk S&P/Nas/Mag7 -2.1%/-3.2%/-4.9% w/ minimal progress on Iran. Tech was under pressure: 1) Anthropic’s Mythos helped drive $IGV -7%, & 2) $GOOGL memory algorithm drove a selloff in semis led by memory $MU/$SNDK -16%/-13%, 3) $Meta & $GOOGL -11%/-9% on court rulings. Brent closed at a new high on Friday of $113 vs the prior closing high of $112 last Friday. The longer oil stays at higher levels, the more risk there is that Central Banks start to raise rates. Most only have an inflation mandate vs the Fed with also an unemployment mandate. While the US Fed Funds rate is at 3.5-3.75%, the ECB in only at 2.0%, and BOJ is at 0.75% and both seem to have a hiking bias at this point. With 2yr treasury yields in the US at 3.9%, up over 50bps since the end of February, a hike is also implied in the US. Bond yields were up last week between 1-6 bps across the curve between 2-30yr tenors. One surprising bright spot was the R2K finished the week +0.5%. But this also ties with its greater exposure outside of the technology sector. I have been recommending that, U need to get MESI (Utilities, Materials, Energy, Staples, Industrials) in the current environment. Four of the five S&P500 subgroups above were up last week and on average returned 2.7%. They are now up 13% on average YTD (and all are up individually as well) versus the S&P decline of 7%. Even prior to the Iran war, they were up 17% YTD vs flattish for the S&P. These sectors are asset heavy and have the least risk of being disintermediated by AI and in many cases are helped by increased efficiency. As I have written for the past couple of weeks, “It takes one to start a war but two to end it. Iran does not seem to want that.” The bid ask spread on the Strait of Hormuz is very wide right now with the US wanting a “Free Maritime Zone” under international oversight while Iran wants sovereignty over the Strait with the right to transition it into a defacto toll booth. Iranian strikes on aluminum plants in Bahrain and the UAE over the weekend plus the Houthis entering the war on the side of Iran portend potentially another rough start to the week. With more US ground troops getting moved to the region, boots on the ground cannot be ruled out if the current April 6th deadline fails. Two new ideas after the events of last week are $META and $INTC. Intel- Since late 2022 when ChatGPT was launched, CPUs have given way in importance to GPUs in the move to accelerated computing from general purpose computing. Recently, the stock declined 17% the next day in reaction to yet another disappointing earnings result. Then last week, aggressive forecasts given by $ARM during their analyst day points to increasing competition in the future for current micro-processor vendors. But the tide may be turning. On January 30th, the final rebrand to OpenClaw occurred with it reaching 100K stars on Github in sixty days which was faster than anything before it. Agentic AI, as captured in the public’s interest in OpenClaw, due to the greater need for orchestration improves the amount of server CPUs per Gigawatt of infrastructure versus AI training and Chat-based inference. There could be 2-4x more CPUs per GigaWatt needed for agentic AI. Server CPUs could become an emerging bottleneck in 2026. This should bridge the gap until Intel signs a new meaningful advanced packaging customer later this year and foundry customers by early next year. The war in Iran once again brings to the forefront the importance of domestic supply whether it is oil today or advanced semiconductor chips in the future. META- Their stock had the best next day response (+10%) to earnings results of all of the megacaps in CQ4. They demonstrated solid ROI with higher AI capex being matched with higher revenue and profits. But since results were reported, the development of their latest LLM does not seem to be going well despite the high capex. In addition, increasing pressure on the consumer from higher oil prices for longer would affect advertising revenues. Finally, the court cases against them last week are not good but teen users are below 10% of their revenues. The 11% decline in the stock last week has the stock down 34% from its 52 week high, making this an attractive entry point. The stock trades at just a 16x PE vs the S&P at 20x for CY26. The upcoming World Cup event and mid-term elections in the US should provide a bit of help later this year. Ultimately, as shown in late 2022 with their Metaverse investments, if the stock declines enough, I think capex could be cut back, especially on their non-AI investments. Best wishes for your investing in the week ahead.

• 95% oil imports. • 5.1% inflation forecast. • The Philippines is the canary in the coal mine for emerging markets. 🇵🇭 This is a structural tailwind for global inflation that central banks cannot hike away. aljazeera.com/gallery/2026/3…

BREAKING: Inflation in the Philippines is now set to average 5.1% in 2026 amid surging oil prices and their recently declared "energy emergency," per FT. The Philippines imports 95% of its crude oil and is now facing its biggest energy crisis in history.

Barron's roundtable pros say AI is rewriting tech investing. Massive infrastructure demand makes semis and data platforms strong buys. Top picks to ride the AI wave include $NVDA, $AVGO, $ASML, $SNOW, $NET, $FROG, $META, & $AMZN. Investors must watch surging capex closely. barrons.com/articles/ai-te…

@IranObserver0 US decapitation strikes left decentralized Iranian forces fighting from invulnerable "missile cities." To forcibly reopen the blocked Strait of Hormuz, the US must deploy advanced Aegis naval tech, risking total war to force capitulation. #IranWar youtube.com/watch?v=JGchdm…

⚡️NEW IRGC warning a vessel in Hormuz: You are not allowed to pass through the Strait of Hormuz If you disobey, you will be destroyed Don’t put your life in danger, Captain

Swarmer $SWMR shares fell 28% to $26.36 Monday after a massive post-IPO surge. Despite the dip, the Erik Prince-backed drone tech firm remains up 420% from its $5 debut. Its AI software has powered 100k+ Ukrainian missions. $KRMN $SPX $DJIA #Drones #Investing barrons.com/articles/swarm…

Why South Korea's KOSPI violently dropped 5%: • Energy: Imports 98% of needs (70% via Hormuz) • Margins: $100+ oil instantly crushes profits for semis & heavy industry • Currency: The Won hitting 17-year lows triggers massive forced foreign liquidations

S. KOREA'S KOSPI FALLS 5% AS IRAN CRISIS ESCALATES This cartoon of a market is now 3x more volatile than bitcoin

@Geiger_Capital South Korea's KOSPI over the last 8 quarters: Q1'24: 2,746 Q2'24: 2,792 Q3'24: 2,605 Q4'24: 2,399 Q1'25: 2,483 Q2'25: 3,074 Q3'25: 3,424 Q4'25: 4,214 Today: 5,565 (down from 5,900)

No, this isn’t a crypto meme coin… It’s the South Korean stock market.

@KobeissiLetter Q1'24: $2,229 Q2'24: $2,326 Q3'24: $2,634 Q4'24: $2,644 Q1'25: $3,123 Q2'25: $3,269 Q3'25: $3,869 Q4'25: $4,319

BREAKING: Gold prices fall below $4,350/oz, now down over -5% since futures opened. That’s -$1.5 TRILLION in market cap in 3 hours.

@KobeissiLetter • 29 hours left. • Offensive strategy activated. • Energy, IT, and water targeted. The repricing when the Strait officially shuts is going to be violent.

BREAKING: Iran responds to President Trump's threat to "obliterate" Iranian power plants if the Strait of Hormuz is not opened "within 48 hours." Iran's response: 1. Iran will "completely close" the Strait of Hormuz 2. Iran will hit “vital” infrastructure in the Middle East 3. This includes energy, IT, and water desalination facilities 4. Iran’s senior military commander says the country’s military strategy has shifted from defensive to offensive 5. Iranian officials say the country has enough reserves of essential goods to last for up to one year Trump's deadline has 33 hours remaining.

Strait of Hormuz daily traffic has collapsed: Pre-crisis: 60-70 tankers moving 20M barrels (20% of global supply). Today: 0-2 tankers. Only the shadow fleet and a few cleared vessels are crossing. 125 million barrels of crude are now stranded in the Gulf.

BREAKING: President Trump says the US will "obliterate" Iran's power plants if Iran does not open the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours.

Targeting Middle East desalination plants is the region's 'nuclear option.' Iran won't mine the Strait: an oil spill would destroy 65+ water plants, leaving millions—including Iran's own allies—to die of thirst. Retaliatory strikes would spark a doomsday humanitarian crisis. youtube.com/watch?v=G8Tp-3…

DO NOT MISS THIS IMPORTANT SIGNAL! Iran now directly threatening to attack the DESALINATION facilities of Israel and other other gulf states allied with USA. This is EXACTLY the scenario that @anasalhajji emphasized would have the same dire consequences as a NUCLEAR strike on @Macrovoices ep. 523.

@KobeissiLetter • Gas: +45% • Inflation expectations: 5.2% • Mortgage rates: 2026 highs • Rate cuts: Cancelled The data is screaming stagflation. The market is completely unprepared for the Fed to start hiking again.

Current situation: 1. US inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, 3-year high 2. The Russell 2000 is officially in a technical correction 3. US gas prices have risen nearly +45% in four months 4. Interest rate futures are now pricing-in potential rate HIKES 5. Gold prices are down -$1,000/oz from their record high 6. Mortgage rates have risen 50+ bps to new 2026 highs We are witnessing colossal economic change on a daily basis.

The AI infrastructure boom in numbers: • 800 to 1,000 New Data Centers under construction • Big 4 Tech 2026 CapEx: $650B+ • Hotspots: VA, TX, AZ Capital is aggressively rotating from physical offices to silicon, power grids, and liquid cooling. $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $META

BREAKING: The value of US data centers under construction has officially surpassed the value of office buildings under construction for the first time in history. Data centers under construction are up+29% YoY, to a record $45.1 billion. Meanwhile, the value of offices under construction are down -13%, to $43.5 billion, the lowest since October 2015. Since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched, data center construction is up +228%. Over that same period, office construction is down -38%. AI is reshaping the US economy.

Global Oil Reserves: 3.7 Billion+ barrels Global LNG Strategic Reserves: 0

1BN barrels in OECD commercial crude stocks 1.2BN barrels in IEA strategic oil reserves 1.5BN barrels in Chinese oil reserves 400MM barrels in on water storage 0 LNG in strategic reserve storage. The LNG situation is far more dire than oil

Fed Decision Highlights: • Rates UNCHANGED (11-1 vote) • 2026 rate cuts slashed to just ONE • 2026 PCE inflation forecast raised to 2.7% • Middle East risks labeled "uncertain" The market's dream of a massive 2026 easing cycle is officially over.

SUMMARY OF FED DECISION (3/18/2026): 1. Fed halts rate cuts for the second straight meeting 2. Fed projects one rate cut in 2026, one in 2027 3. Fed 2026 PCE inflation forecast revised higher to 2.7% 4. Fed says implications of Middle East developments are "uncertain" 5. Fed Governor Miran dissents in favor of an interest rate cut 6. Today's rate decision was reached in an 11-1 vote We believe December was Fed Chair Powell's final rate cut.

Nebius $NBIS fell 10% after announcing a $3.75B bond offering to fund AI data centers. This follows a $27B deal with Meta $META and a $2B investment from Nvidia $NVDA. Investors are weighing high growth potential against massive capital requirements.