Stockcoach

It has been over 19 years since I stopped writing my blog at stockcoach.blogspot.com. The portfolio has done reasonably well since then. As of today, the portfolio index, which is calculated net of any cash deposits and withdrawals, stands at 30,612, up from an initial value of 100 in November 2000. Since I last posted in February 2007, the portfolio index is up 17.8x. For comparison, the S&P 500 is up 5.1x over this period, while the Russell 2000, probably the best benchmark for my portfolio, is up 3.5x. With the exception of a few short months in late 2008/early 2009 and February 2020, I never used margin debt. On the contrary, I have generally maintained very large cash positions. My portfolio is spread across several brokerage accounts, many of which contain cash, bonds, and global ETFs in addition to individual stocks. The individual stocks have done better than the bonds or the ETFs. My IB account, which I use more for trading than the other accounts, is up 1,744% since 2010. That is about 20% annualized. I estimate that the individual stocks returned around 25% to 30%. To my detriment as a deep value investor, I never owned much tech. Why did I restart the blog? Partly because I enjoyed writing it, partly because I want to help other investors, and partly because I missed the discipline it provided. I will admit that I haven’t really devoted much time to stock screening over the past 19 years. Maybe one hour per week. I have a lot of great resources at my disposal now, including BCA’s Equity Analyzer platform, so I plan to take more advantage of them.

One thing I should’ve mentioned in my intro is that AI has completely transformed the research process for me. Rather than just running a screener every week or so to choose stocks, I now feel like I have a team of analysts at my disposal willing to read through a bunch of SEC documents that I otherwise would not have bothered opening and alert me to incipient trends. Hopefully this will translate into more alpha.

Sold half at $104.15. The whole stock market feels very vulnerable to me.

BofA initiates with $130 price target. I think I’ll wait until about $105 to $110 intend to trim position.

NOW: Sell off seems overdone. Stock now trading at 17x forward earnings. Disclaimer: I am long NOW.

TRT: Ridiculous that this stock ever went to $20. I sold most of my shares way too early unfortunately. Disclaimer: I have a tiny residual long position in TRT left

Stock down 10% today. Still too expensive.

AXTI: I used to own quite a lot of this company and unfortunately sold my shares way way way too early. I’m now slightly short from $126.

DAIO: I am long-time shareholder (bagholder?) in this one. The company has a bad habit of overpromising and underdelivering. Let’s see if this “transformational acquisition”, which brings it more deeply into the semi space, helps the stock. I am skeptical. Disclaimer: I am long DAIO

Nice 10% up move since I bought two days ago. I may trim a bit if it goes back above $100.

$71.85 now. Still holding.

Selloff in ACM seems overdone to me. Trading at 10x earnings with data center exposure. I am in at $68.06. Disclaimer: I am long ACM

Sold some of my shares. It’s moved up too fast.

RELL starting to make a move. It operates in some hot sectors (eg., power/electrical) and is still trading at 1x sales. Disclaimer: I am long RELL

KWEB: I bought some last week on the assumption that the China-US summit could put a fire under Chinese tech stocks. So far, so good. Disclaimer: I am long KWEB.

I guess should have added to my position after all!

BWEN up 20% following its earnings release. They sold their wind tower business and are now more focused on the hot power generation space. I was lucky with this one as I bought most of my shares only recently. I still like the stock but would not add to my position at current levels. Disclaimer: I am long BWEN.

LGIH. Following BZH’s pop today, this is now the cheapest US homebuilder relative to tangible book. Disclaimer: I am long LGIH.

MRAM going coo coo for cocoa puffs. I sold half in overnight session. NVEC, another memory play, up as well. Disclaimer: I am long MRAM and NVEC