
U.S. stocks closed mixed Wednesday (SPX -0.1%, NDX -0.5%) as investors positioned ahead of Alphabet and Tesla Q2 results after the close, while Brent crude surged ~3% to the $94 area on ongoing U.S.-Iran tensions and Strait of Hormuz risks. 10-year yields remained elevated amid energy-driven inflation concerns.
Tomorrow’s (Thursday) direction will be dictated by the after-hours reaction to those two reports. Tesla delivered a revenue beat driven by strong Model 3/Y volumes but missed on EPS, with gross margins at 16.8% and free cash flow turning negative. FSD subscription growth was a bright spot, yet the stock dipped in after-hours trading. I remain cautious on $TSLA given its still-stretched valuation (elevated 2026 P/E versus long-term EPS growth) and the accelerating unsupervised autonomy competition from multiple players.
On the names requested: $NVDA, $SMCI, $DELL and $MU remain the purest AI infrastructure/server and memory beneficiaries. Dell continues to highlight large AI server backlogs; Super Micro has shown margin improvement commentary recently but carries equity-raise overhang risk. Micron has been extremely strong on AI memory demand but is extended after big runs. $T reported a clean Q2 beat with solid postpaid and fiber adds, providing a defensive tone. $PATH reversed sharply lower today and remains vulnerable in a risk-off tape.
Base case for Thursday: choppy to modestly lower open if the Tesla margin disappointment dominates sentiment, with selective support in the AI hardware names ($NVDA/$SMCI/$DELL/$MU) if Alphabet’s Cloud growth and capex commentary reaffirm hyperscaler spend. Oil volatility and yields will keep a lid on multiples. Valuation still matters.
English







