Prem Doshi 🇮🇳

May not be a bad idea to sell excess positions or margin funded stocks today to go light into the weekend.

Stated so many times clearly AI going to blast tonight.

Microsoft 17% Micron 17% Sandisk 25% Amd 14% Marvell 11% Bloom Energy 26% SK Hynix 18%

Enjoy the show!

Bloodbath in US IT services, accenture cracks 7% every similar name down 7-9%, and AI stocks flying.

Disclosure: On and Off have been dwelling into IT Stock Puts, but i am afraid haven't had much success in them.

IT Sector - what's next? There has been a lot of buzz around it thanks to the recent come back of 20-25% from the IT Stalwarts. But lets look at where they stand going ahead. Firstly, within IT there are fragments that are impacted positively by AI such as the product companies like Intellect and a few more and then there are bodyshop/servicing companies providing cheap coders etc, app building etc. and more So lets focus on the IT Services sector, AI has surely come in and impacted this sector and it is here to stay, the kind of mad amount of money being pour into AI makes it an infallible reality, like say in Indian context Govt's scientific step on Ethanol blending is often criticized but already so much money has been poured into it that now the govt even if it wishes would shy away from backtracking. So one thing we can clearly drive home that is AI is here to stay, now some of these IT Servicing companies are saying that we will effectively implement AI for our clients and that will be the source of our deal wins, This sounds good but what was a recurring permanent business now limits to a few times business. Because AI is still in invention and a lot of better models will/may come and may need far less human intervention to perfect its trade out. So if we look at say next 2-3 years or more ahead, the outlook remains grim for the services led IT companies, Now lets look at companies that have high service revenues vs product. I have used AI to determine revenue % of services and also the pie at risk. TCS has 99% service revenue out of which 85-90% current revenue can have AI Disruption. Infosys has 95% and AI can impact 80-85% of its revenue. Wipro 98% and again AI impact is seen at 80-85% LTI Mindtree 99% and AI impact is seen at 80-85% Least impacted among large names seems to be HCL TECH also with its Sarvam stake it has some positioning in AI plus being a split business with products AI impact works out to be on 55-65% current revenue but not serious. This data although is generated through ChatGpt i doubled checked it with other AI models and found them in agreement with each other Now as an investor, whether this means Buy the Dip or Sell the Rise its a very personal call but like i had the view in 2018-2019 that Bank's will correct valuation and price to book ratio will move closer to the global peers such BOFA and all - that really played out. I think IT too will now get closer to the valuations it should trade at - for instance in 2021 riding the digitalization wave which was pushed by COVID globally - TCS traded at 8x market cap to sales, Infosys at 7x, Wipro 5.5x, LTI Mindtree 9.4x, HCL Tech close to 4x. During the same time, Capgemini traded at 2x, Accenture traded at 4x, Cognizant traded at 2.5x - these are some of the global names in similar trade which we can take as benchmarks. For most of 2023 as well our IT names traded at above lofty valuations when AI had just begin to show its face, in this sector we always traded at premium in India because of competing well against the international names, high growth rates, lack of saturation in industry, constant export of software engineers and so much more. Now that with AI the future growth potential is throwing hints of saturation, i personally feel we will now begin trading close to the benchmarks. Currently - TCS is at 3.2x market cap to sales, INFY is at 2.6x, Wipro is at 1.94x, LTM is 3x, HCLTECH is 2.7x. While - Accenture is at 1.4x, Cognizant is at 1.2x, Capgemini is at 1x. Given we are not at the "ADVANTAGE AI" scheme of things currently as a nation, I personally believe the scarcity premiums or growth premiums, emerging market premiums can become a thing of past like it has become in Banking sector - when i wrote the 2018-2019 note HDFC Bank was at 5.5x price to book, Kotak Bank was at 6x almost and BofA was at 1x. (x.com/StocksResearch…) Today BofA is at 1.5x and HDFC Bank is at 1.9x - so the premium which HDFC or KOTAK traded at was almost 5.5 times now got reduced to 20-25%. Similarly irrespective of whether people fish for bottoms or look to sell tops in IT, whether it comes from Time Correction or Price correction - it looks a probability to me that these tech names barring HCL (because of AI focus) - will work out to get valued closer to the benchmark valuations such as that of Accenture or Cognizant so like 1.5-1.7x for TCS similar ratios for other names in terms of market cap to revenue factoring in a 20-25% premium over the global names. In something like Kotak Bank - in 2018 FIIs owned 40% today they own 25%, DIIs who owned 11.5% today own 38% - i believe some of this capital would have got reallocated to banking names in the west which have had a run, however such reductions weren't seen in HDFC BANK. If you look at TCS - FII stake has gone 15.6% in 2021 to 9% thus far, while in INFOSYS it has gone 33% to 27% so some unwinding both by price action and stake reduction can be seen from the FII side here while LTM or Coforge don't show similar sell-off. The point i am driving home here is that AI is real, its not a bubble, its here to stay, it will impact & change our lives ahead, too much money has been put into it for it to fail now, All in All - BRACE FOR IMPACT!

CG Power short trade over today @ 815/- down from 890 in strong market. I think from tonight onwards US, KOREA, other markets will see AI stocks flying again.

Trump'ss claims so far on Iran since February 2026: Deal near, regime change, new regime better, decent people to work with, crazy bastards, deal imminent, will bomb them hard, will get back nuclear dust, US will capture their oil, US controls hormuz, crude will fall, will bomb their power plants and bridges tonight, tomorrow, day after tomorrow, next week, in 72 hours, i dont know when, deal is near, currently talking, not talking anymore, will bomb the sh** out, will bomb them a little, will see what to do in iran, war will be over in 4-5 weeks, another week or two, maybe it will go longer, America has won the war, the war will stretch a bit, Iran will not have nuclear weapon ever, good people in iran should takeover, we did not bomb a school, we made an error, Nuclear particles to be captured by America to be destroyed, War is over, War is on, Deal is....

I think AI trade might be on from tonight.

Today's Sabzi Mandi might have better tradeable action versus Stock Markets.

Day low detailed post soon.

And NIFTY back to red.

Sab milke hume pagal bana rahe hai....

Brent is day high please update.

@parikhbhavin27 😎

@StocksResearch Prem check this .. Lol

In sometime Pakistan will announce its mediating and thats why Nifty is already up - movement looks like a trap

As a result stock down to 618

VTL 638 nos are better than estimates on all fronts.

IRGC announcement on IRANI MEDIA live :- Announcement No. 54 Countries involved in assisting the aggressor will face a severe response if they do not change their behavior. Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC): 🔹The courageous and awakened people of Iran have disrupted the enemy's plans and strengthened the ranks of the Muslim fighters, giving them renewed spirit and determination. 🔹Last night, two oil tankers, incited by American aircraft, were attempting to deviate from the unsafe route in the southern part of the Strait of Hormuz. After a severe fire broke out on one of them, both vessels quickly returned. 🔹The Strait of Hormuz is our territory, and the valiant naval forces of the IRGC firmly control it. We will not allow any foreign entity, coming from thousands of kilometers away, to interfere. With the help of God, the aggressor will be punished today. 🔹Countries involved in assisting the aggressor will face a severe response if they do not change their behavior. 🔹The Strait of Hormuz cannot be reopened as long as American officials continue to make excessive demands and threats, and interfere with maritime activities in the region. Such threats and interventions will only make the situation more difficult and complex.

@DarshanKhatri4 I sense a new leg.

@StocksResearch Sir, is it okay to hold existing shares in portfolio? Or do you see a new leg of fall?

Avoid buying IT stocks.