Stockwatch DK

2.6K posts

Stockwatch DK

Stockwatch DK

@StockwatchDK

Comments and research on Danish stocks. This account is a dedicated one-man project that aims to create more awareness about Danish stocks.

Denmark Katılım Ağustos 2025
30 Takip Edilen135 Takipçiler
Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
New studies suggest GLP-1 drugs such as Ozempic and Mounjaro, developed by Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Eli Lilly (LLY), may significantly improve cancer outcomes by reducing tumor progression, lowering mortality risk, and potentially decreasing breast cancer incidence, adding to the growing list of health benefits associated with GLP-1 therapies, The Wall Street Journal reports. Observational studies showed GLP-1 users had reduced cancer spread, with lung and breast cancer progression cut by half, WSJ writes, adding that GLP-1 users were 25% less likely to be diagnosed with breast cancer and had higher five-year survival rates in other studies.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$NVO $NOVO Novo Nordisk announces that the Committee for Medicinal Products for Human Use (CHMP) under the European Medicines Agency (EMA) has adopted a positive opinion, recommending marketing authorisation of Wegovy pill (once-daily oral semaglutide 25 mg) to reduce excess body weight and maintain long-term weight reduction. The positive opinion also includes SELECT data in the label, demonstrating that Wegovy reduces the risk of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Wegovy pill is the first oral glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonist therapy recommended for approval by CHMP for weight management in the EU. The recommendation is based on the OASIS trial programme and the SELECT2 trial. In the OASIS 4 trial, oral semaglutide 25 mg taken once daily demonstrated 16.6% mean weight loss when treatment was adhered to in adult participants with obesity or overweight with one or more comorbidities. The weight loss achieved with Wegovy pill is similar to that of injectable Wegovy 2.4 mg. Furthermore, one in three people experienced 20% or greater weight loss in the OASIS 4 trial.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$VWS Nykredit assesses that the risk/reward remains positive for Vestas and raises its price target to DKK220 from DKK210 while maintaining the Buy rating. Vestas recently announced a new US order of 673 MW. With this order, Vestas has now announced approximately 1,200 MW in new orders from the US in 2026. The orders come at a time when Trump is openly opposed to wind energy, and there is still no final clarification on a number of tariffs on imported components for wind turbines. Nykredit sees this as another sign that the underlying customers are eager to obtain additional power capacity as a result of increasing demand and rising electricity prices, driven by the expansion of data centers in the US. This need is also difficult to cover through, for example, gas turbines due to very long delivery times. The combination of these factors means that Nykredit believes that the US could become a strong market in the coming years, and especially if a reasonable tariff on imported components is soon to be clarified by the US government. Following the better-than-expected Q1 2026 financial results, Nykredit has raised its earnings estimates for the coming years by 1-7%. For 2026, Nykredit now expects an EBIT margin of 7.3% (guidance: 6-8%), and the bank is thus moving above the mid-range and towards the top as a result of better-than-expected execution in the offshore business at the beginning of 2026.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$DANSKE Yesterday, Danske Bank held a virtual group meeting for sell-side analysts, with the participation of management from the bank's business areas, where they provided insight into the strategic priorities across segments. As expected, nothing groundbreaking came out of the meeting, Nordea says. However, Nordea's analysts left the meeting with increased confidence in Danske Bank's ability to deliver further improvements and exceed the 2028 targets presented in connection with the Q1 financial statements.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$GMAB The annual cancer conference, ASCO, is approaching (May 29 - June 2), and for Genmab, the primary focus is on data from competitors/partners, Jyske Bank says. Says: Overall, data can provide small shifts in the market perception of the competitive situation, but we also assess that Genmab investors' main focus should be on Genmab's own data with Epkinly in the lymphoma DLBCL and petosemtamab (peto) in head and neck cancer, both expected in the second half of 2026. At the cancer conference, Jyske Bank are primarily keeping an eye on Monjuvi from Incytes, which is a competitor to Genmab's Epkinly, and Rybrevant from Johnson&Johnson, which is a competitor to Genmab's peto. Jyske Bank says that 2026 will be a “crucial” year for the Danish pharmaceutical company, and with the prospect of Darzalex going off patent in 2030 it is important for Genmab that products such as Epkinly, peto and Rina-S, which will ensure future growth, are available.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$NSIS JP Morgan reiterates its Overweight recommendation on Novonesis with a price target of DKK 500, according to a new sector report by the bank. JP Morgan cites potential gradual growth tailwinds, best-in-class structural organic growth, and margin and underlying ROIC profile.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$NVO $NOVO The total number of prescriptions filled for Novo Nordisk's Wegovy pill rose to 109,777 in week 20 from 107,029 the week before, according to prescription numbers from Symphony Health Solutions. Rival Eli Lilly's new weight loss pill, Foundayo, reached 2,520 prescriptions last week, up from 2,067 the week before. The figures do not include prescriptions filled at online pharmacies and via healthcare platforms and Novo's own online pharmacy Novocare with direct-to-consumer sales.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$TCM Danske Bank lifts its estimates and hikes its target price on TCM to DKK85 from DKK82 due to the future cost synergies Celebert is set to provide. TCM’s strong beat on revenues and the gross margin for Q1 was entirely offset by higher-than-expected opex costs from the acquisition of webshop Celebert and two branded stores, Danske Bank says. Says that while anything below the midpoint of top-line guidance seems unlikely for FY 26E, earnings may not follow to the same extent. Maintains Buy rating.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$FLS Barclays has upgraded FLSmidth & Co. to Overweight from Equalweight, raising its price target 22% to DKK 600 from DKK 490. Points to market share gains in pumps and an underappreciated growth recovery, as the Danish mining equipment maker trades at a 15-25% discount to peers Metso and Weir despite comparable commodity exposure. Says upside scenario of DKK 680 and a downside of DKK 440. FLSmidth posted organic order growth in double digits in its mining pumps division for two consecutive quarters, 21% in the fourth quarter of 2025 and 16% in the first quarter of 2026, outperforming Weir Minerals, the market leader in mining pumps with more than 50% share, by approximately 20 percentage points. The analysts described this as "a clear evidence of market share shift to FLS," with FLSmidth currently holding around 10% market share in pumps.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
In the report, the analyst raises his group sales projections for full-years 2026 to 2036 by 6% to 8%, reflecting expectations of better oral Wegovy momentum and "slightly less" US GLP-1 deflation. However, he notes that the EPS forecast upgrades are front-loaded, with an expected 13% spike in 2026 before tapering off to a 1% lift by 2036. As a result, Bernstein's EPS compounded annual growth rate estimate for 2026 through 2031 is down by 150 basis points to 3.4%, against the expected 8% growth rate for its European sector peers. Says: Why are our new EPSe up to 25% < consensus? (i) we expect worse US share losses to Eli Lilly in injectable GLP-1 obesity and diabetes; (ii) considering the LLY marketing powerhouse, we now forecast Wegovy Pill to lose majority share in US oral obesity to Foundayo by 2028E, and (iii) we also expect US GLP-1 deflation to drive margin misses,. Bernstein says that the Wegovy pill revenue will "not be enough" to support midterm above-sector average growth. Says: In our view, a better-than-expected Wegovy Pill launch, a one-quarter delay in 'brutal' price cuts, and a one-off margin beat doesn't change the long term fundamentals.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$NVO $NOVO Bernstein SocGen Group analyst Justin Smith raises the price target on Novo Nordisk to DKK200 from DKK175 and reiterates Underperform, in a report entitled 'Why's it still a value trap in our view'.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$BETCO In Q1 26, Better Collective returned to growth after two challenging years by growing 9%. Danske Bank continues to believe that 2026 has several positive levers for growth in revenue and earnings, which is why it may become an interesting year for the company. Danske Bank continues to value the BETCO share based on its DCF model mainly due to lack of relevant peers – especially after the recent crash in Gambling,com. Danske Bank's DCF model implies a value of DKK187 per share. Rates Buy with an unchanged target price of DKK120.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$RBREW $CARL A German administrative court in Flensburg has confirmed that the deposit obligation on bottles/cans also applies to Danish customers in border shops. The ruling may be appealed to Germany's highest administrative court in the coming weeks, and is therefore not yet final. But the introduction of a deposit on German cross-border trade may prove to be an unexpected windfall for Danish breweries, Jyske Bank says. The measure reduces the price advantage in cross-border trade and may shift parts of the demand back to Denmark, where both Carlsberg and especially Royal Unibrew achieve higher margins, the bank says. Jyske Bank says that the effect is expected to be greatest for Royal Unibrew, which is most exposed to cross-border trade, while Carlsberg may see a more indirect gain – especially in line with the rollout of the Pepsi collaboration from 2029.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$GMAB Handelsbanken reiterates its Buy recommendation on Genmab with a 12-month target price of DKK 2,220. Genmab reported a solid first quarter report, with broad-based growth across the company's royalty-generating medicines, Handelsbanken says. Darzalex increased 22 percent, Kesimpta increased 30 percent, Tepezza increased 29 percent, Rybrevant increased 82 percent, Tecvayli increased 34 percent, and Talvey increased 77 percent compared to the same period last year. Higher-than-expected royalty revenues, continued confidence in strong underlying demand – with the exception of Tepezza, which was impacted by inventory build-up – and lower costs contribute to Handelsbanken raising its estimates for 2026-2028. At the same time, uncertainty has increased around several crucial studies that are expected to report in 2026. The focus is on Epkinly in the first-line treatment of diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), petosemtamab in head and neck cancer, and Rina S in ovarian cancer. Recently, an expansion of the pivotal study for petosemtamab has contributed to increased nervousness in the market. However, a review of the available literature does not provide clear support for the fact that a change in study size in itself affects the outcome, Handelsbanken says. Results from the studies are expected in the second half of 2026 for Rina S and petosemtamab, while data for Epkinly are expected during the year. Three key catalysts are expected in 2026: i) topline results and regulatory filings for Epkinly in first-line DLBCL, ii) topline results for Rina S in the Phase II RAINFOL 01 study and subsequent regulatory steps, and iii) Phase III results for petosemtamab in head and neck cancer, together with topline data and regulatory filings.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$MATAS Nordea reduces its fair value on Matas to DKK 110 from DKK 130 and reiterates Hold. Matas' Q4 2025/26 results fell below sell-side expectations despite a DKK10m nonrecurring LTIP reversal, underscoring continued pressure from the Swedish beauty market, Nordea says. Says: While we acknowledge the accelerated efforts to capture a larger share of consumer wallets at KICKS, we believe the promotional backdrop entails a costly trade-off between growth and profitability. In that light, Nordea still expects the new CEO to revisit the medium-term targets over time.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$BETCO Better Collective delivered another solid quarter in an otherwise dynamic market, Nordea says. Revenue in Q1 2026 ended 1% above analysts’ expectations on average, while adjusted operating earnings before depreciation and amortization (EBITDA) was 4% below. The company delivered organic growth of 5% y/y (9% currency-adjusted) and adjusted EBITDA growth of 14% despite unfavorable sports results. With a normalized sports result margin, Nordea estimates that adjusted EBITDA growth would have reached ~30% y/y, which would mean that the result significantly outperformed analysts’ expectations on average. Nordea highlights solid momentum in sponsorships, PaidMedia and US revenue share, which increased by 21%, 12% and 46%, respectively. After a period of difficult comparatives, the number of new depositing customers (NDCs) was largely unchanged year-on-year, while the value of deposits (VoD) remains close to its highest level ever. According to Nordea, this underlines the strength of the company's diversified business model, which remains on track to regain investor confidence. Nordea sees Q1 2026 as another step in the right direction, shifting the focus towards the upcoming FIFA World Cup - expected to be the biggest betting event in sports history. Rates Buy, target SEK200.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$NVO $NOVO Looking at the consensus estimates for 2026, the sales estimate for the Wegovy pill was USD 0.8 billion at the start of the year, while the sales estimate for Foundayo was USD 1.1 billion despite the later launch, Nykredit points out. In mid-May, the estimates for both products were raised to USD 1.9 billion. for the Wegovy pill and USD 1.4 billion for Foundayo. Nykredit argues that we have thus seen the most positive estimate change for the Wegovy pill, corresponding to an absolute change of USD 1.1 billion and more than doubling the estimate. The reason is probably that the Wegovy pill has so far had the best launch of the two products. If we look at the 2027 estimates, the consensus points to sales for the Wegovy pill of USD 3.7 billion, while the estimate for Foundayo is a whopping USD 6.3 billion. It is therefore in the offing that Foundayo will clearly overtake the Wegovy pill during 2027 when Eli Lilly ramps up the marketing of the product. Nykredit still sees good room for both products and is not entirely convinced that Eli Lilly will capture 2/3 of the oral obesity medicine market during 2027. The bank also points out that the two shares are trading at very different valuations. Measured on 12-month forward P/E, Novo Nordisk shares trade at 13x, while Eli Lilly shares trade at 25x. The big difference is due to completely different growth expectations for the two companies. If one looks at the 2026 guidance for the two companies, Novo Nordisk management is pointing towards organic sales growth in the range of -12% to -4%, while Eli Lilly management is pointing towards sales growth of 25-30%. Part of the explanation for the big difference is that Eli Lilly is expected to capture market share, while Novo Nordisk is proactively targeting lower list prices in both 2026 and 2027 to achieve broader patient access and higher volume over time.
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Stockwatch DK
Stockwatch DK@StockwatchDK·
$ISS Nykredit raises its price target on ISS to DKK 310 from DKK 300 and reiterates the Buy rating after ISS announced that it has finally reached an agreement with Deutsche Telecom regarding a previous contractual dispute. The dispute has now been resolved between the two companies in such a satisfactory manner that the expiry of the contract is also extended from 2030 to now 2035. Says: We assess that this dispute has long been a concern among especially foreign investors, which is why a clarification is positive in our view. The agreement also means that Deutsche Telecom will pay their outstanding amount of DKK 600 million, which is why the expectations for the year's cash flow were raised to DKK 3.1 billion (previously: DKK 2.5 billion), and at the same time, the year's share buyback was increased to DKK 3.1 billion (previously: DKK 2.5 billion). Last but not least, the conclusion of the case has reduced some of the risk contained in the expectations for the full year, so that management now expects organic growth of over 6% and an EBITA margin of approximately 5.25%. Overall, Nykredit assesses the sum of this news as clearly positive.
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