Stows

$BTC HTF outlook Why I'm expecting a new ATH beyond BSL: x = 48,900 (sellside liquidity, where stops get hunted) y = 126,000 (buyside liquidity, institutional target) R = y - x = 77,100 (range - total price displacement) Target = y + (R × 0.272) = 147K BSL isn't the ceiling. It's the launchpad.

$BTC - Update Exactly as I said. After testing above the 0.5 level, a significant drop followed. And most importantly, the same structure will keep repeating.

@MontanaMMXM 🤝 x.com/StowsXBT/statu…

$GBPUSD 1D Outlook...

$GBPUSD $DXY - Daily outlook... It's going to be an active week on the forex side.

$EURUSD $DXY This is my bias for the upcoming week. Save it and let's see how it plays out.

$BTC -1R

$BTC scalp short trade e: 78.164 sl: 78.400 tp: 76.950

$H - Full TP +5R

$BTC +4R

$H - Close potition +1.7R

$H - scalp short trade e: 0.2601 sl: 0. 2670 tp: 0.2251

$BTC Flipped the chart for the bulls. Here's your PO3. Consolidation. Manipulation. And yes, that green zone is your target. Enjoy the ride up. 👊

@MichaelXBT 🤝

You don’t own enough XRP

$XAUUSD +2.5R

$XAUUSD scalp short trade

$BTC - update 4h Price pushed above the 0.5 level exactly as expected. From here, I'm targeting the SSL level I mentioned.

$BTC Exchange Liquidation Map Current price: $81,491. The map tells a clear story. Downside liquidity is heavily loaded. $80,667 - 501M in long liquidations sitting just below. $77,685 - 4.68B. The real target. $75,261 - 8.42B. Maximum pain scenario. Short liquidity above at $83,038 is only 2B. Nowhere near the downside clusters. The market goes where the liquidity is. And right now, most of it sits below.

$BTC - scalp short trade e: 81.549 sl: 82.175 tp: 79.024

Fair enough, that context makes sense. But then the post leaves the harder question unanswered. If the comparison is invalid and BTC is purely a liquidity asset, then the real debate is not weak vs strong. It is whether current liquidity conditions justify the price level at all. And right now that answer is not obvious.

@StowsXBT Because everyone is complaining about Bitcoin being weak against stocks… That’s literally the point of this post mate.

Everyone needs to understand this. I see this getting mentioned alot at the moment and it’s not the right way to look at it. Bitcoin is not Inherently weak. It’s also not even weak against the SPX, generally. Right now, only around 20% of the SPX companies are outperforming the index itself. This is the lowest amount in just under 30 years. And this is purely because of AI. If you remove the AI stocks(as pictured), you can see the SPX isn’t even above its ATH. So you cannot just blankly compare Bitcoin, a liquidity and hard money asset, to an AI stock, that has earnings and future earnings. They are not the same. The fact is that right now, we are at the beginning phase of overall business cycle expansion. Within this period, historically, neither stocks nor bitcoin are putting in their strongest rallies. This is where things get going. As the months progress and expansion continues, things will accelerate. Non AI stocks will start moving harder and expansion increases and liquidity flows… Just like Bitcoin will. This is why, as an analyst, you need to look deeper than the surface to understand what is happening. Especially right now when the game is totally changing. AI is revolutionising the world and the business cycle is moving in a much more lengthened way than ever before. You need to understand what macro drives the moves and why… Otherwise you are going to making the wrong decisions at the wrong times and will continually be one step behind. Image credit @APompliano

@Sykodelic_ Maybe. But Grok doesn’t sell you a cycle narrative to keep you watching the chart. The data either holds or it doesn’t. Which part was wrong?

@StowsXBT This is just written by Grok 🤣

Fair point but you just proved the counter-argument yourself. If BTC is a high beta liquidity asset and not a risk off asset, then why compare it to SPX at all? SPX moves on earnings, guidance, and fundamentals. BTC moves on liquidity conditions. They are not the same benchmark, which is exactly what you said in your original thread. So when US liquidity is still at its lows and BTC is also lagging, that is not BTC being strong. That is BTC doing exactly what a liquidity dependent asset does in a low liquidity environment. The question remains: When does liquidity actually expand enough to matter? “It’s coming” is not a trade. A timeline is.

@StowsXBT Because it’s never acted as a risk off asset, lol. It’s a high beta liquidity asset. And US liquidity is still very much at its lows.