Tony Norfield

@Kathleen_Tyson_ I think SWIFT still has a lot of business, but yes, it is seen as expensive & more counties do not want the risk of being cut from it by the 'West'. Plus there are other systems being used more now. It seems that SWIFT codes are still often used for bank IDs, though, even CIPS.

@StubbornFacts And it’s now massively distorted as most of the world’s banks bypass Swift as expensive, unnecessary, legacy.

🇨🇳China's currency has a fast growing role in global FX markets, but is NOT big yet. Indications from the BIS global FX survey in 2025 and from China’s own CIPS system in April 2026:

@Kathleen_Tyson_ Yes, I know, but the SWIFT data count the payments in the messages.

@StubbornFacts CLS only settles FX trades, nothing else. Swift only messages. Swift doesn’t make payments.

Flotilla participants are arriving at Istanbul airport. This is what Israel military and prison personnel did to them.

@DogsAndSciFi SWIFT covers all payment messages using its system, part of an FX deal or not. CIPS will mostly cover FX deals with CNY, as indicated in the name 'cross-border'. The Hormuz fees are minuscule compared to these numbers.

@StubbornFacts Hormuz passage remains restricted. Yuan transit fees for compliant neutrals are forced demand, not organic adoption. CIPS at $113B daily vs SWIFT's $5T+.

@Kathleen_Tyson_ The BIS report is for FX transactions, not payments in a particular currency, eg euros from France to Germany, but euros vs dollars, sterling, etc. Likely the CLS number is for total payments, whether or not part of an FX deal SWIFT data are also total payments. CIPS more FX.

CLS reports settling about $3.5 trillion a day in 18 currencies against USD and EUR currency pairs. That gives an annual total of $875 trillion, almost 10x more than BIS report. I’m uncomfortable with the discrepancy, but having built CLS and knowing its operations, I’m inclined to believe CLS.

@arl_capital The ruble is a bit too strong for the Russian economy now, and it stops energy export revenues from rising enough to offset extra spending. RUB is boosted by high Russian central bank interest rates to get inflation lower. Inflation now falling back; more interest rate cuts soon.

@StubbornFacts x.com/arl_capital/st…

🇷🇺Russia’s FX in trade: de-dollarisation (or use of euro) as 🇷🇺ruble’s role stays well over 50%. In March 2026, the ruble accounted for 64.9% of 🇷🇺export receipts. On import payments it fell to 54.7% as ‘friendly FX’ rose (mainly 🇨🇳China’s CNY). ‘Unfriendly FX’ (🇺🇸🇪🇺🇬🇧) just 12%.

@starauthorth China is a key trade partner for Russia, but the import share of CNY is less than 30%. Total 'friendly FX' imports is 33.3% in March: most of that is CNY, but there are also regional Eurasian countries, India & ASEAN who are doing more local FX trade deals.

@StubbornFacts Russia hasn't built an alternative system. It's plugged into China's. 30%+ CNY on imports isn't de-dollarisation, it's yuan-isation. Same concentration risk, different flag.

I have not yet read all the document, admittedly. But it is like wading through mud. The text in the previous post was on p27 of a 28-page doc I copied from a Russian-to-English translation of the joint 🇷🇺-🇨🇳statement issued today.

More 🇷🇺-🇨🇳diplomatic blab. If these 3 paragraphs in the latest 12,000+ word (!) joint statement from China🇨🇳 & Russia🇷🇺 are anything to go by, they remain naively wedded to an ‘international law’ framework. Despite the US🇺🇸 & 🇮🇱 breaking all ‘laws’, and 🇺🇸 aiming at them!

Look at the scale of these welcoming pageants from China🇨🇳. This one for Putin🇷🇺 is more than somewhat bigger than the one for Trump🇺🇸! The red carpet alone is more than 1 kilometre long. More 'multi-polar' 🇨🇳-🇷🇺plans to be agreed.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 US Congress published their version of official aircraft losses during Operation Epic Fury: Pictured: E-3 Sentry AWACS. The US considers it "damaged." 🔸️F-15E Strike Eagle (4 lost) Three shot down by friendly fire over Kuwait on March 2; all six crew ejected safely. A fourth was downed over Iran on April 5; both crew recovered. 🔸️F-35A Lightning II (1 damaged) Iranian ground fire damaged one F-35A during combat operations over Iran on March 19. 🔸️A-10 Thunderbolt II (1 lost) Struck by enemy fire on April 3 and crashed during subsequent search-and-rescue operations. Pilot ejected safely. 🔸️KC-135 Stratotanker (2 lost, 5 damaged) On March 12, two KC-135s were involved in an incident over friendly airspace. One crashed in Iraq, killing all six crew. The second made an emergency landing at an undisclosed regional base. Five more were damaged on the ground at Prince Sultan Air Base, Saudi Arabia, during an Iranian missile and drone strike on March 14. 🔸️E-3 Sentry AWACS (1 damaged) Struck on the ground at Prince Sultan during the same Iranian attack on March 28. It had been parked on an unprotected taxiway. 🔸️MC-130J Commando II (2 lost) Two special operations aircraft supporting the downed F-15E rescue were intentionally destroyed on the ground in Iran on April 5 after becoming unable to depart. All crew evacuated safely. 🔸️HH-60W Jolly Green II (1 damaged) Took small-arms fire during the same F-15E search-and-rescue operation on April 5. 🔸️MQ-9 Reaper (24 lost) 24 Reapers lost since the start of operations, as of April 9. 🔸️MQ-4C Triton (1 lost) One high-altitude surveillance drone lost in a mishap, reported April 14.

BREAKING: TICDATA on foreign holders of Treasury Securities 2 of the top 3 holders dumped UST in March 🇯🇵 -$47.7B (3.8% ⬇️ m/m) 🇬🇧 +$29.6B (3.3% ⬆️ m/m) 🇨🇳 -$41.0B (5.9% ⬇️ m/m) Other notable changes Taiwan 🇹🇼 -$12.7B ( 4.1% ⬇️ m/m) Singapore 🇸🇬 -$5.7B (2.0% ⬇️ m/m) India 🇮🇳 -$7.6B (4.0% ⬇️ m/m) Saudi Arabia 🇸🇦 -$10.8B (6.7% ⬇️ m/m) South Korea 🇰🇷 -$4.1B (2.9% ⬇️ m/m) UAE 🇦🇪 -$5.8B (4.8% ⬇️ m/m) Looks like GCC and many Asian countries impacted by Iran War needed to liquidate UST for USD back in March This happened 2 months ago. We will only know the May number (which should be worse) by July ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-cente…

🇨🇳China’s FX in cross-border trade. Both receipts & payments in 🇨🇳CNY fell in April from highs in March, while US🇺🇸dollar receipts rose. That pushed % of total CNY transactions lower. Still above 50%, but only erratic progress to de-dollarise. 🇪🇺€ only 1.9%, other FX minimal.

@Kathleen_Tyson_ @MenchOsint @kenan101138 Trump already dominates the news channels, so he is now trying to be the main character in the religious channels in the US. Comedy programmes too, of course.

@MenchOsint @kenan101138 It’s as if Trump’s reasonable behaviour in Beijing suppressed a torrent of crazy spilling forth now.

Trump has gone absolutely crazy

#Facebook, etc. Users of Meta’s ‘Platform’ had been growing steadily, including Instagram & WhatsApp. But, for the first time in more than 5 years, users fell in early 2026. Maybe spying & Zionist🇮🇱 censorship is less popular? I stopped using Zuckerberg’s stuff a few years ago.

The US Treasury has a department called the Office of Foreign Assets Control. Just in case you doubted how imperial oppression is built into the US state.

Results of Trump's visit to China: Chinese newspaper cartoons 🤡😂