Spencer Mossman@fc_mossman
Some observations about Manchester United's underlying data this season under Ruben Amorim and under Michael Carrick:
- Amorim's United were better by almost every measure except results
- its known Amorim had a better xG differential, but there's a response I'm seeing that his xG is inflated by trailing game states, which is incorrect; in neutral scorelines (the match is tied), Amorim and Carrick have nearly the same xG differential per match... Carrick's Utd are producing more xG, while Amorim's were conceding less
- even non-xG or xT events like high turnovers forced/conceded and deep entries forced/conceded all favor Amorim's Utd
If through the traditional data analysis lens Amorim's Utd looks better, the question flow becomes:
Do I care about the underlying data?
- If no, thanks for reading this far, my account and this post probably aren't for you, feel free to quote this calling me a nerd or leave a reply like "I ain't reading all that"... it helps with the algorithm :)
Are there other data angles where Carrick's United does look better than Amorim's, and if so, are they also reasons why other successful teams are successful?
- Still here? Awesome. If there are alternative angles I'm not considering, I'd love to think through them. That said, if they need to be scalable to other situations, otherwise it doesn't really matter if they're driving United's current results, because like the goals to xG differential, its not sustainable.
Are there non-data reasons for the results disparity?
- Absolutely, and it would be stupid to not consider these. Carrick clearly has a management style that better suits the club and the squad mentality, among other things. The confidence of the players/general vibe of the club could very well be the difference between the quality of result. I don't believe this to be true, but I would not rule it out, or at least it being one of several contributing factors. But if you believe this to be the case, you need to then think through:
Will the good vibes last forever?
- Eventually something has to give - either the underlying data catches up to the on-pitch results, or the on-pitch results drop to meet the data. Feel free to think through which is more likely, and how that will impact the vibes.
Perhaps this is as simple as Amorim was the manager United needed to right the ship, and now Carrick is the manager United needs to maximize results.
There are arguments for and against United sacking Amorim, as well as making Carrick's appointment permanent - I'm not here to persuade you one way or the other, what you choose to do with the facts I've presented and the other facts you've digested + your relationship with your emotions is your business.
Thanks for reading!
