Sunjoy Joshi

History may not repeat, but its architecture sure does - the 16th-century Portuguese cartaz was the prototype of coercive maritime governance. SWIFT sanctions became its digital heir, Iran's Hormuz closure the geographic reply – read @sunjoyj in #CartazRemix @orfonline or-f.org/39285

When the US weaponised SWIFT, it set a precedent. When Iran closed Hormuz in 2026, it replied with geography. New @ORF_online paper by @sunjoyj traces the mirror logic of two competing sieges. #Hormuz #MaritimeOrder. or-f.org/39285

The 2026 #Hormuz crisis has stress-tested the #IMEC corridor with a severity its architects did not model, and the results are instructive. IMEC’s architects face a narrow window in which institutional reform can deliver the transformative impact IMEC was envisioned for: @SamriddhiVij Read here: orfme.org/expert-speak/t…

Türkiye converted the Bosphorus into a strategic lake via Montreux. Is Iran now running the same playbook at Hormuz? @sunjoyj maps the endgame for a de facto Hormuz Convention handing the keys to Iran and Oman @orfonline #Geopolitics.or-f.org/39285

When the US weaponised SWIFT, it set a precedent. When Iran closed Hormuz in 2026, it replied with geography. New @ORF_online paper by @sunjoyj traces the mirror logic of two competing sieges. #Hormuz #MaritimeOrder. or-f.org/39285

8/8 The Cartaz Remix: The Hormuz Gambit and the Emergent Montreux of the Gulf ORF Occasional Paper No. 557 | June 2026 Full paper (free PDF): orfonline.org/research/the-c… Precedents, not legal theory, are writing the next chapter.

1/8 As we slide back into a medieval world of warring fortresses governed and governing by the raw brutality of the siege, the crisis in the Strait of #Hormuz quietly reshapes the global order. What began as #Iran’s response to the 28 Feb 2026 attacks has become a collision of two rival legal architectures — history's lessons rather than diplomacy are st to decide the outcome. Read the full paper @orfonline

7/8 In this war of chokepoints, Iran doesn’t even need to fire the first shot anymore. Make the strait “uninsurable” using drones, harassment and selective seizure and let Lloyd’s of London do the blockading for free. The final phase is already visible: Permitted Lists + quiet regional buy-in → eventual exhaustion of the old order.

India's reported crime decline in the latest NCRB data warrants scrutiny. Crime data exclude non-cognisable offences, apply the principal offence rule, and depend on police registration practices, limiting what official statistics capture: Ramanath Jha or-f.org/39402 #CrimeData #NCRB #India

Türkiye converted the Bosphorus into a strategic lake via Montreux. Is Iran now running the same playbook at Hormuz? @sunjoyj maps the endgame for a de facto Hormuz Convention handing the keys to Iran and Oman @orfonline #Geopolitics.or-f.org/39285

Why both diplomacy and conflict fail to resolve the #Hormuz crisis? The paradox of the rules based order - both sides use two different, formally sanctioned rulebooks: the #US enforces UNCLOS "transit passage". #Iran responds with the 1958 Geneva Convention’s "innocent passage" doctrine. Every transit is a potential casus belli as each side breaks the other’s rules while obeying its own @orfonline orfme.org/research/the-c…

#Türkiye converted the Bosphorus into a strategic lake via Montreux. Is Iran now running the same playbook at #Hormuz? @sunjoyj maps the endgame for a de facto #Hormuz Convention handing the keys to #Iran and #Oman in this Occasional Paper by @orfonline. orfme.org/research/the-c…

History may not repeat, but its architecture sure does - the 16th-century Portuguese cartaz was the prototype of coercive maritime governance. SWIFT sanctions became its digital heir, Iran's Hormuz closure the geographic reply – read @sunjoyj in #CartazRemix @orfonline or-f.org/39285