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What is and what isn't an "edge" in trading?
It is a common trope on #Fintwit that in order to succeed you have to have an "edge" when it comes to trading and investing - but particularly trading.
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James Benjamin
31.1K posts
James Benjamin
@SuperCycleBear
Background in finance. Keen armchair enthusiast of theoretical physics, non linear dynamics, complex systems and psychology Posts are not investment advice.
NSW Australia Katılım Mart 2009
1.6K Takip Edilen2.5K Takipçiler
@tonychilla_eth TradFi spreads being 250x that of some instruments? Seems like the moat has sprung a leak and most people are just staring at the headlights of an oncoming truck.
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James Benjamin retweetledi
@walsxbt It will be on the back of collapsing TradFi institutions and corporations. The implication for the USD in that environment is like that of a snowflake in hell.
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@fejau_inc It has the potential to save Bitcoin. That's how big it is, imo.
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I am very optimistic on the future form factor of tokens and very bearish on 97% of the current tokens
We are in the middle of a very important churn and I do think better days lie ahead for the asset space and HYPE is leading that charge
jords@jords
hyperliquid shines a very bright spotlight on how much better tokens can perform if they don't have horrendous tokenomics uniswap, jupiter, maker, solana, aave, lido it makes me so sad to think about what could have been, but if hype continues to win then it makes me happy for a potentially bright future success gets replicated and i really hope we see a new era of tokens launched that walk in hype's footsteps true wealth redistribution through a token is fulfilment of the crypto promise, it is us proving that there is a better way than the blackbox of tradfi token and team alignment is so important and yet so rare, i dream of a future where this is not the case
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@DefiWimar Irrelevant ramblings of a pathological liar aren't what they used to be...
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This is not the valuation you are looking for...
Barchart@Barchart
WARNING 🚨: Stock Market reaches most expensive valuation in history, surpassing the Dot Com Bubble and the run-up to the Great Depression 🤯👀
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@jackcoder0 It's okay. A Nobel laureate once opined that the impact of the internet would be the equivalent of the fax machine. These guys have next to no idea.
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Two economists just published a mathematical proof that AI will destroy the economy.
Not might. Not could. Will — if nothing changes.
The paper is called "The AI Layoff Trap." Published March 2, 2026. Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania. Boston University. Peer reviewed. Mathematically modeled.
The conclusion is one sentence.
"At the limit, firms automate their way to boundless productivity and zero demand."
An economy that produces everything. And sells it to nobody.
Here is how you get there.
A company fires 500 workers and replaces them with AI. A competitor fires 700 to keep up. Another fires 1,000. Every company is behaving rationally. Every company is following the incentives correctly. And every company is building a trap for itself.
Because the workers who were fired were also customers.
When they lose their jobs faster than the economy can absorb them, they stop spending. Consumer demand falls. Companies respond by cutting costs — which means automating more workers — which means less spending — which means more falling demand — which means more automation.
The loop has no natural exit.
The researchers tested every proposed solution. Universal basic income. Capital income taxes. Worker equity participation. Upskilling programs. Corporate coordination agreements.
Every single one failed in the model.
The only intervention that worked: a Pigouvian automation tax — a per-task levy charged every time a company replaces a human with AI, forcing them to price in the demand they are destroying before they pull the trigger.
No government has implemented this. No major economy is seriously discussing it.
Meanwhile the numbers are already tracking the curve. 100,000 tech workers laid off in 2025. 92,000 more in the first months of 2026. Jack Dorsey fired half of Block's workforce and said publicly: "Within the next year, the majority of companies will reach the same conclusion."
Nobody is doing anything wrong. Companies are following their incentives perfectly. That is exactly the problem.
Rational behavior. At scale. Simultaneously. With no mechanism to stop it.
Two economists built the math. The math leads to one place.
Source: Falk & Tsoukalas · Wharton School + Boston University ·
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@Rainmaker1973 This a great lecture about spheres in multidimensional geometry. youtu.be/fsLh-NYhOoU?si…
YouTube
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@udiWertheimer Cost of hedging on weekends for me dropped by 99.65%
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i think it’s great that hyperliquid exists but the bullish takes on X over the past week or 2 have transcended beyond all levels of retardation
guys it’s a great app yes. it’s not the second coming
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@ThierryBorgeat As an independent trader, a whole lot of weight was just put on the shoulders of suits and middle men... I am happy with this "accommodation"
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Imagine you spent 40 years doing the boring, responsible thing.
You opened a 401k at 23. You contributed every paycheck. You ignored the noise. You bought the index because Bogle told you to, because Buffett told you to, because every honest piece of financial advice for 30 years told you the index was the safest, most diversified, most rules-based way to own America.
The whole point was the rules.
The rules said: a company must trade for 12 months before joining the S&P 500. The rules said: it must show four consecutive quarters of GAAP profitability. The rules existed because in 1999 the index quietly bought a lot of stocks at the top, and pensioners paid the bill.
After the dot-com crash, S&P tightened the rules. Nasdaq tightened the rules. FTSE Russell tightened the rules.
For 23 years, those rules held.
Then SpaceX filed for IPO.
And the rules changed.
The S&P 500 waived the profitability requirement. Nasdaq cut its trading-history window from 90 days to 15. FTSE Russell cut its to 5.
Bloomberg Intelligence estimates the major index funds will absorb between 19% and 24% of SpaceX's float within six months. That's over $30 trillion of passive 401k and retirement money, mechanically buying a single newly public company at IPO valuations, because the rules said they had to.
Except the rules used to say they didn't.
Here's the thought exercise:
If you spend 40 years building a system designed to protect ordinary savers from buying overpriced stocks, and then you waive the protections the moment a sufficiently large stock asks you to, what was the system actually protecting?
Most of investing is about understanding what's a rule and what's a guideline.
A rule binds the rule-maker.
A guideline binds the saver.
You're allowed to find out which is which only after the fact.
Hedgeye@Hedgeye
Rule changes for the SpaceX $SPCX IPO: Index providers waived the profitability requirement and cut the seasoning window from 90 days to 5. This forces over $30 trillion in passive 401k and retirement money to buy SpaceX at IPO valuations. Bloomberg Intelligence estimates S&P 500 funds must absorb 19% of SpaceX's float within 6 months. Russell 1000 and Nasdaq 100 funds will absorb 24%. The rules built to protect passive investors: 1. S&P 500 has required 12 months of trading and 4 quarters of GAAP profitability since 2002. Both waived. 2. Nasdaq cut its inclusion window from 90 trading days to 15. 3. FTSE Russell cut its to 5. All three benchmarks are now structured to buy SpaceX at IPO pricing.
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James Benjamin retweetledi
Gamma squeeze in $PURR will pull in EVERYONE
I don’t make the rules
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@ausstockchick Is 30% in 18 months a correction or crash?
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Do you really think a significant housing correction is on the cards?
I didn’t think it would be possible pre budget.
I thought a slowdown but now the investors are out, rates will be higher for longer and the economy isn’t great…
#auspol
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Price has retaken USD$74000
Next step is to re-enter the lower end of the Value Area of the top profile and leave behind the upper end of the lower profile. Interesting 24 hours ahead.
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt NGL Bitcoin is looking weak and in Auction Market Theory its price has entered a zone that signals a return to the USD$67500 area is likely. However, price often tests previous profiles to confirm the integrity of the market. Rejection of that lower profile (POC @ 67500) is 74000
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Market recap video is public today! Please share with any Bitcoin Bros that you know or tag them in the replies.
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@KobeissiLetter Apparently it will be funded by selling milkshakes...
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The US debt crisis is set to become significantly worse:
Entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays are estimated to consistently surpass Federal tax revenues by 2031, according to CBO.
These expenditures are projected to rise to ~20% of GDP by 2040.
That would be the highest percentage on record when excluding the 2020 and 2021 pandemic period.
Net interest alone is estimated to reach 5% of GDP, an all-time high.
At the same time, tax revenues are expected to increase only modestly, to 18% of GDP, the highest since 2020.
To put this into perspective, tax revenues as a % of GDP exceeded entitlements, interest, and other mandatory outlays by 8 percentage points in 2000.
What is the long-term plan here?
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@nickgiva1 Ledgers should not be fiddled with unless there's a desire to undermine trust or you want a problem to be kicked down the road. Thinking that kicking cans down the road is built into human nature misses the point that the ledger was fiddled with in the first place. Convenient!!!
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The problem with BTC is that it isn't built for humans.
Imagine a world with nothing in it but 22m BTC. Guy builds a house. The house is worth 22m BTC, since it's the only thing that exists. Another guy comes along and builds another house. There are now 2 houses. Hence each is worth 11m BTC. The first guy has just seen the value of his house plunge by 50%. What does he do? He goes over to his neighbour, shoots him in the head and takes over his house too. Problem solved, he is worth 22m BTC again. Simply human nature.
BTC is deeply disinflationary while human nature is not. We want more, not less, simply how our brains are wired. That is the bit BTC maxis just don't get. BTC will NEVER be a system of account.
Fred Krueger@dotkrueger
There are 150 T of money in M3. Another 150 T in debt. So the entire size of "fiat" is 300 T That's approximately the size of all equities, real estate and commodities. Now replace "fiat" with "Bitcoin"
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Is $HYPE going to save Bitcoin or is that over-hyped?
Mr. Butler.hl@MrButlerhl
$HYPE printing ATHs every day. EVM ghost town. NFTs -90%. Most ecosystem memes -99%. Feels like everyone got rich on Hyperliquid and forgot HyperEVM exists. What are we missing here? One big airdrop? A killer app? More liquidity? More builders? Because this disconnect is getting absurd.
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@Crowded_Mkt_Rpt Trading can be a very expensive way to "know thyself".
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Video coming tomorrow: "One of the things you must do if you want to do this. It's not for everybody. It's not spoken about enough. Your emotional construct is a very important part of how you survive this game. It looks lucrative, it appears exciting, but it's not. It's a grind. It's behavioral. It is knowing yourself. It is getting into the weeds of understanding your emotional construct. That's the most important part of being a bloody good trader." Andrew Perry (time stamp 21:50)
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James Benjamin retweetledi
Hyperliquid now has more BTC liquidity than Binance.
The world's largest crypto exchange. Beaten. On its own product.
And that's not even the most insane part of today's data. 👇
📊 Hyperliquid Dashboard — May 30, 2026:
BTC Orderbook:
▪️ HL near-mid depth: $72.4M (983 BTC)
▪️ Binance near-mid depth: $41.4M (562 BTC)
▪️ HL advantage: 1.75x more liquid
HYPE Spot ETFs (13 days listed):
▪️ Cumulative net inflows: +$115.60M
▪️ Single day volume May 29: $84.06M
HIP-4 Prediction Markets:
▪️ All-time volume: $59.80M
▪️ Still only 29 days old
The paradox that should break your brain:
HL is more liquid than Binance on BTC. ✅
Yet HL market cap is still 80x smaller than Binance's valuation.
Same product. Better execution. Fraction of the price.
What happens when:
✅ CFTC just legalized US perp trading
✅ ETF inflows accelerating ($115M in 13 days)
✅ Liquidity already beating Binance
✅ US institutional capital not yet fully deployed
The gap between reality and valuation has never been wider.
Markets hate inefficiency. They always correct.
⚠️ not financial advice. DYOR.
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