
Surmount
6.6K posts

Surmount
@SurmountInvest
Modern, personalized investment management








🚨The oil trade right now has an unusual setup. If peace talks fail, supply stays disrupted, oil stays elevated, and energy names keep running. If peace talks succeed, infrastructure damage means the Strait of Hormuz doesn't fully normalize immediately, pre-war surpluses are largely drawn down, and the IEA is still flagging a demand surge in July–August from summer fuel consumption hitting simultaneously. Both outcomes keep pressure on supply. That's not a typical binary. The IEA head specifically warned that existing buffers, reserve releases, stockpile drawdowns, and pre-war surpluses may prove insufficient to stabilize conditions this summer. When the agency whose job is to manage supply stability says their own tools might not be enough, that's worth taking seriously. WTI: +39.81% over three months. The market is already pricing some of this.

















