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BREAKING: A jury just found Elon Musk guilty of fraud. On Friday, a San Francisco jury ruled that Elon Musk deliberately misled Twitter investors in 2022 to drive down the stock price before buying the company. Damages: up to $2.6 billion. The plaintiffs' lawyers called it the largest securities jury verdict in US history. Here's what actually happened: In April 2022, Musk agreed to buy Twitter for $44 billion. $54.20 per share. Deal locked. But then Tesla's stock started falling. Musk had planned to fund the purchase by selling Tesla shares. The more Tesla fell, the more shares he'd have to sell. So he needed a way out. On May 13, 2022, he posted two words: "Deal temporarily on hold." His stated reason? Concerns about fake accounts and bots on the platform. Twitter's stock crashed nearly 10% in a single session. Millions of shareholders panicked and sold. They sold based on what the world's most powerful tweeter had just told them. Then something interesting happened. Musk bought Twitter anyway. At the exact same price he originally agreed to. $54.20 per share. Every single person who sold during those weeks between his tweets and the closing of the deal? They sold at an artificially deflated price. Caused by his words. And the jury agreed. "If you move the market with your words, you own the consequences," said one attorney following the verdict. "When one person can move billions with a tweet, the law has to catch up." Now here's the number that should make you stop. The damages: $2.6 billion. Musk's net worth: $839 billion. The jury's verdict is being called the largest securities jury verdict in American history. Musk himself called it "a bump in the road." And he has a point. His legal team noted the jury found both for and against the plaintiffs. The jury did NOT find that Musk ran a deliberate scheme to defraud investors. They found two specific tweets were misleading. That's it. And on the key question of whether this was a coordinated fraud? Not guilty. Musk's lawyers are already appealing. They pointed to separate cases in Texas and Delaware where Musk recently won appeals. His argument throughout the trial was straightforward: Twitter's own leadership lied to him about how many accounts on the platform were fake. He had every right to pause a $44 billion deal until he got honest answers. The jury disagreed on the tweets. But they agreed it was not a fraud scheme. That distinction matters. The case now moves to the damages phase and then almost certainly years of appeals. In the meantime, Musk is still worth $839 billion. Still the richest person in history. Still building rockets, running AI companies, and reshaping American government. A $2.6 billion verdict and he doesn't miss a step. That's either what justice looks like at this scale. Or it's the most expensive bump in the road anyone has ever driven over. What are your thoughts?

Wall Street's new investing filter: Can AI replace this in 5 years? If no, that's HALO. "Heavy Assets. Low Obsolescence." Energy +23% YTD. Materials +16%. Nasdaq negative. The rotation is already happening.

$RKLB is quietly becoming one of the more important companies in the space economy, and recent developments are starting to reflect that. THE NUMBERS: • FY2025 revenue: $602M (+38% YoY) • Q4 gross margin: 44.3% (+10pts YoY) • Q1 2026 guide: $185–$200M (+57% YoY) • Backlog: $2B+ (recently crossed) • Launch manifest: 70+ missions in queue • 21 launches in 2025, maintaining a 100% success rate THE CONTRACT STACK: Recent wins are a key part of the story: $816M SDA TRKT3 missile tracking satellites (Dec 2025), the largest contract in company history, alongside major defense primes $190M HASTE hypersonic test flights, MACH-TB 2.0 (Mar 2026), the largest single launch contract to date StarLite sensors are also being adopted by other contractors on the same program, adding a component-level revenue stream ANALYST SENTIMENT: 21 analysts currently cover the stock: 10 Buys, 0 Sells, with a median price target around $90 Clear Street recently initiated coverage with a Buy rating at $88, projecting 35% annual revenue growth through 2030 and increased launch cadence over time ⚠️ THE RISKS: • Still pre-profit, with EBIT margin at -33.6% • Trading around 64x price-to-sales, implying high expectations • Neutron delayed to Q4 2026 following a tank test issue • $1B at-the-market equity program introduces potential dilution • Continued reliance on government and defense-related budgets THE BIGGER PICTURE: Consensus expectations imply 37 – 38% annual revenue growth to reach $1.3B by 2028 The current contract pipeline suggests progress toward that trajectory, but execution, particularly around Neutron, remains a key variable Overall, the company appears to be transitioning from a small-lift launch provider toward a broader space systems and infrastructure role, though much of that shift still depends on delivery over the next few years Past performance is not indicative of future gains. This is not financial advice.

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🚨 Meta $META is laying off hundreds TODAY, hitting Reality Labs, social media teams & recruiting. This follows 1,000+ Reality Labs cuts in Jan 2026 and reports of a potential 20%+ company-wide reduction looming. The story: Zuckerberg is killing the metaverse dream and going all-in on AI. Reality Labs has burned through $70B+ in losses since 2020. The Ray-Ban smart glasses? Safe. Horizon Worlds? Not so much. The pivot is real. The question is how deep the cuts go?

Shell CEO Wael Sawan warns the Iran conflict is tightening global fuel supplies. Jet fuel is already affected, diesel is next, and gasoline could face shortages before summer. Europe may see shortages by April, while parts of Asia are already feeling pressure. Shell is advising governments on demand cuts, stockpile use, and alternative sourcing. Recent missile strikes also hit Shell’s Pearl facility in Qatar, though it remains secure.

@Sam_Badawi AWS and Meta moves highlight AI’s growing role inside companies.

$AMZN is accelerating deployment of internal AI agents across AWS after recent workforce reductions, signaling a deeper shift toward automation inside its own infrastructure stack. This mirrors what $META has been doing with internal AI tooling to streamline operations and boost productivity at scale.

@SJosephBurns Clear trends reduce noise and improve trading probability.

“Trade only when the market is clearly bullish or bearish.” - Jesse Livermore

@ThierryBorgeat Long-term trends often show a natural push-pull between sectors.

For most investors, it still comes as a surprise that stocks and commodities are negatively correlated when it comes to long-term secular trends. 2022 may be the best example of this, as there is a constant transfer of wealth between commodity producers and commodity consumers.

@dailychartbook Global investors clearly value the US economic resilience.

"The US remains the most dynamic and innovative economy in the world, delivering the best and most steady returns for domestic and global investors." -Apollo Slok

@elerianm Eurozone PMI shows early stagflation pressures from geopolitical shocks.

On the data front, we are beginning to see the first wave of releases capturing the fallout from the Middle East War, including this morning’s S&P Global PMI for the Eurozone which, according to Reuters, "fell to a 10-month low of 50.5 in ​March from 51.9 in February, as the war drove input costs to their highest in more than three years and triggered ​the worst supply chain disruptions since mid-2022. "The flash euro zone PMI is ringing stagflation alarm bells as ⁠the war in the Middle East drives prices sharply higher while stifling growth," Chris Williamson, chief business economist at S&P Global Market Intelligence, ​said." Beyond the headline numbers, the dispersion within the Eurozone is notable. Already, we are seeing a gap in resilience, with France, for example, showing significant weakness, while Germany appears less so from the data. Expect this dispersion (one of the three themes for 2026, together with volatility and fragmentation) to be visible worldwide -- in countries, companies, and households. #economy #markets #middleeastwar #eurozone

@JonErlichman Opportunity missed is a bill you pay later.

“If you think trying is risky, wait until they hand you the bill for not trying.” ~ Jim Rohn

@oguzerkan Peace may be delayed, but unresolved issues will linger.

Iran now knows how big of a leverage the Hormuz is. It had never tested it before, now they know. This leaves Trump between a rock and a hard place. If he demands the peace now, it won’t be on the terms he wants. The other way is that he keeps escalating which erodes his support at home. I believe there’ll be peace, but it may take longer than many expect, and it’ll leave many problems unresolved.

@wallstengine Character and compassion often outlast intelligence in real impact.

Jensen: “I think intelligence is a commodity. Intelligence is a word we’ve elevated to very high form. The word we should really elevate is humanity, character, compassion, generosity. Don’t let this commoditization of intelligence cause you anxiety. U should be inspired by that”

@StockMKTNewz April 21 will be a key date for trading adjustments.

JUST IN: Vanguard just announced it is doing stock splits for a bunch of its largest ETFs - Vanguard Growth ETF $VUG will be split 6:1 - Vanguard Mega Cap Growth ETF $MGK will be split 5:1 - Vanguard S&P 500 Growth ETF $VOOG will be split 6:1 - Vanguard Mid-Cap ETF $VO will be split 4:1 - Vanguard Information Technology ETF $VGT will be split 8:1 The shares are expected to start trading at the new split-adjusted price beginning April 21st

@Ronitper Avoiding leverage made the crash survivable, a key lesson.

“In 2008, Nifty crashed 50% and my portfolio crashed by 75%. Fortunately, we never borrowed and invested.” “But I did not have enough cash to buy at those cheap valuations. I’ve learned that always have cash for such situations.” - Govind Parikh. March 2025

@neilksethi Oil volatility seems less likely to derail the current cycle.

MS' Mike Wilson: We remain convicted that this is a correction in a bull market that started last April from the depths of a rolling recession. Our work suggests the correction is well advanced not only in time but price. For context, this valuation drawdown is now as significant as what we experienced in the 2015 manufacturing downturn/global recession and the 2023 recession scare. What's unique about this episode is that forward earnings growth continues to accelerate, closing in on 20%. This supports our stance that the probability remains low for this oil spike to end the business cycle.

@LanceRoberts Earnings revisions highlight risk in smaller, less profitable names.

In January, we posted this same graph from Goldman and said that Forward EPS for Small and Midcap companies was too high particularly the Russell 2000 where 40% of the companies are non-profitable. In just the last two months those estimates went from $59 to $48. We are likely not done yet. h/t @ISABELNET_SA

@GlobalMktObserv Institutional de-risking could signal a near-term market inflection.

‼️Professional investors are dumping stocks: The NAAIM Exposure Index dropped to ~60 points, the lowest since the April 2025 selloff. The index has declined -38 points since January, the largest drop since the February-April 2025 market correction. Furthermore, hedge fund net leverage has dropped to ~77%, the lowest since the April 2025 crash. Both indicators are now trending at levels similar to the beginning of the 2022 bear market. By comparison, the 2022 low for the NAAIM Index was ~15 points, while hedge fund leverage bottomed at ~65% Institutional exposure to US equities is collapsing.