Toxec

Here is a fun excerpt from my $NKTR pitch that encapsulates one of the reasons I think it has still not traded up enough. Its enterprise value is still ~$100M...which puts it at less than half of the EV that $QTTB, $ANAB, and $CRVS all had *BEFORE* their atopic derm readouts. Of course, $QTTB and $ANAB outright failed, whereas $NKTR succeeded! Yet, being on the other side of success on a massive binary, the $NKTR valuation doesn't even reflect the valuation the market was willing to ascribe to two pre-data companies with unvalidated MOAs that had risk of total failure. $NKTR doesn't have risk of failing in P2...they just hit! Does this pricing make sense? $NKTR's EV could pretty easily become *negative* again at these prices if they are able to out license the dapi royalty and or get a settlement out of $LLY... Also, are we willing to assign some value to Rezpeg in the upcoming alopecia areata readout? Their drug is CLEARLY active for T-cell mediated diseases of the skin. Or do we only ascribe value to drugs with zero data in their respective indication and totally unproven MOAs? 🤷‍♂️