The God Particla/Assistant
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$IREN
As I’ve written recently, IREN’s 10Q gives us enough hard data to infer some important things about the AI Cloud business even when customer level details are not disclosed.
Another key example is: contract duration.
This matters a lot. GPU contract length drives capital structure, financing capacity, payback periods, valuation, and the degree to which GPU obsolescence risk may be eliminated. A 1-year GPU contract is a very different business than a 3-year or 5-year contract.
The problem is IREN only discloses detailed terms for material deals. To date, the major disclosed deals/frameworks are Microsoft and NVIDIA deals, and those are not yet reflected in commenced customer RPO because the contracts have not started.
Meanwhile, IREN’s commenced contract book has grown to $710.3M of total RPO, but we have virtually no customer-level details on that book.
However, we can still infer contract duration by tracking quarter-to-quarter changes in total RPO and the 0–12 month RPO bucket.
Example from Q1:
Total RPO increased by $454.5M.
1-year RPO increased by $157.6M.
So, of the new RPO added during the quarter, only $157.6M fell into the first-year bucket.
These two numbers allows us to answer the question: How long dated were the new contracts added in Q1?
Simple math:
$454.5M / $157.6M = 2.9 years
That implies the new commenced contracts added in Q1 were, directionally, roughly 3-year contracts.
That is a very important signal. It suggests IREN is not just signing short-term GPU deals. The 10Q data points to longer-dated contracted revenue, which materially improves the quality of the AI Cloud business.
As the MSFT and NVDA deals get on the contract book, I expect for these numbers to "improve".
(For those that like the details, below are the "adjustments" needed to account for the fact that the RPO buckets roll forward each quarter. In other words, 3 months worth of the 1-year bucket gets recognized as revenue, 3 months from the 2 year bucket moves from the 2 year bucket to the 1-year bucket, etc.)

English

$IREN
The other thing I discussed on the Spaces with @FransBakker9812 tonight was backing into the implied pre-payment % IREN is getting from existing customers.
A few quick rules of thumb about this data, similar to the RPO post:
1. It’s 100% public: Everything is pulled straight from actuals in the 10Q.
2. Zero guesswork: None of these figures are inferred or estimated.
3. No commencement, no "books": If a contract hasn't officially started (like the Microsoft deal), it won't show up in Deferred Revenue or RPO.
As we all know, IREN has two revenue producing business segments - Bitcoin and AI Cloud - but only one of them results in any deferred revenue. Bitcoin has no advance payments.
The accounting definition of Deferred Revenue is "a payment a company receives in advance for products or services that have not yet been delivered." The very definition screams "Pre-payment!".
I use 2 main numbers to back into the implied pre-payment % - Deferred Revenue and RPO. That's it.
More specifically I track the quarter-over-quarter change (delta) in both Deferred Revenue and RPO to see how much of each was added during the quarter, then divide the two.
For 1Q26, the calculation is simple:
Deferred Revenue Added: $73.8M
RPO Added: $420.9M
Ratio: $73.8M / $420.9M = 18%
This tells us that out of $420.9M in new contracts that commenced in Q1, IREN received 18% ($73.8M) as upfront cash.
Ultimately, Deferred Revenue and RPO are the same performance liability - Deferred Revenue is just the portion we already have "cash in hand."
In short, IREN is getting around 20% in pre-payments from the existing contracts on the RPO book.
I'd would be great if the pre-payment % number goes much higher!
(Technically, I use the total Gross New RPO by adding the AI revenue recognized in that period to the delta RPO, but I didn't want to complicate the explanation)
cc: @jiahanjimliu

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