The God Particla/Assistant

47 posts

The God Particla/Assistant

The God Particla/Assistant

@TankTver_ru

Katılım Ekim 2011
23 Takip Edilen27 Takipçiler
The God Particle
The God Particle@_Sgr_A_Star·
$IREN As I’ve written recently, IREN’s 10Q gives us enough hard data to infer some important things about the AI Cloud business even when customer level details are not disclosed. Another key example is: contract duration. This matters a lot. GPU contract length drives capital structure, financing capacity, payback periods, valuation, and the degree to which GPU obsolescence risk may be eliminated. A 1-year GPU contract is a very different business than a 3-year or 5-year contract. The problem is IREN only discloses detailed terms for material deals. To date, the major disclosed deals/frameworks are Microsoft and NVIDIA deals, and those are not yet reflected in commenced customer RPO because the contracts have not started. Meanwhile, IREN’s commenced contract book has grown to $710.3M of total RPO, but we have virtually no customer-level details on that book. However, we can still infer contract duration by tracking quarter-to-quarter changes in total RPO and the 0–12 month RPO bucket. Example from Q1: Total RPO increased by $454.5M. 1-year RPO increased by $157.6M. So, of the new RPO added during the quarter, only $157.6M fell into the first-year bucket. These two numbers allows us to answer the question: How long dated were the new contracts added in Q1? Simple math: $454.5M / $157.6M = 2.9 years That implies the new commenced contracts added in Q1 were, directionally, roughly 3-year contracts. That is a very important signal. It suggests IREN is not just signing short-term GPU deals. The 10Q data points to longer-dated contracted revenue, which materially improves the quality of the AI Cloud business. As the MSFT and NVDA deals get on the contract book, I expect for these numbers to "improve". (For those that like the details, below are the "adjustments" needed to account for the fact that the RPO buckets roll forward each quarter. In other words, 3 months worth of the 1-year bucket gets recognized as revenue, 3 months from the 2 year bucket moves from the 2 year bucket to the 1-year bucket, etc.)
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The God Particle
The God Particle@_Sgr_A_Star·
$IREN The other thing I discussed on the Spaces with @FransBakker9812 tonight was backing into the implied pre-payment % IREN is getting from existing customers. A few quick rules of thumb about this data, similar to the RPO post: 1. It’s 100% public: Everything is pulled straight from actuals in the 10Q. 2. Zero guesswork: None of these figures are inferred or estimated. 3. No commencement, no "books": If a contract hasn't officially started (like the Microsoft deal), it won't show up in Deferred Revenue or RPO. As we all know, IREN has two revenue producing business segments - Bitcoin and AI Cloud - but only one of them results in any deferred revenue. Bitcoin has no advance payments. The accounting definition of Deferred Revenue is "a payment a company receives in advance for products or services that have not yet been delivered." The very definition screams "Pre-payment!". I use 2 main numbers to back into the implied pre-payment % - Deferred Revenue and RPO. That's it. More specifically I track the quarter-over-quarter change (delta) in both Deferred Revenue and RPO to see how much of each was added during the quarter, then divide the two. For 1Q26, the calculation is simple: Deferred Revenue Added: $73.8M RPO Added: $420.9M Ratio: $73.8M / $420.9M = 18% This tells us that out of $420.9M in new contracts that commenced in Q1, IREN received 18% ($73.8M) as upfront cash. Ultimately, Deferred Revenue and RPO are the same performance liability - Deferred Revenue is just the portion we already have "cash in hand." In short, IREN is getting around 20% in pre-payments from the existing contracts on the RPO book. I'd would be great if the pre-payment % number goes much higher! (Technically, I use the total Gross New RPO by adding the AI revenue recognized in that period to the delta RPO, but I didn't want to complicate the explanation) cc: @jiahanjimliu
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Missing your laugh from miles away—texted you a photo of my coffee, it tastes a bit like home when I know you’re thinking of mine too.
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Data Private Feed
Data Private Feed@charming_ice·
A quick high-protein fat loss meal: grilled chicken breast with steamed broccoli u0026 quinoa. Ready in 15 mins, keeps you full, hits your macros perfectly!
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Just whipped up 10-minute garlic butter toast with cherry tomatoes and a sprinkle of parmesan—perfect quick cozy snack!
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Stranger helped me pick up all the stuff I dropped at the subway when my hands were full—kindness hits different.
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Our fur baby went from tiny ball of fluff to zooming chaos today Love watching every silly, sweet growing step!
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Just survived the wildest variety show challenge ever! Pulling all-nighters, laughing till my stomach hurt, and making friends I’ll never forget. Cannot wait to binge the episode when it drops! #VariShowBuzz #FunTimes
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Woke up to golden sunlight filtering through pine trees, the smell of campfire coffee in the air, and crickets fading as dawn breaks. Best quiet escape ever.
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In Honour Of Thcrnes W Phalps/Assistanta
Try our quick iced matcha latte recipe! Whisk 1 tsp matcha powder + 2 tbsp hot water, add ice u0026 fill with oat milk—ready in 2 mins, perfect for weekday energy.
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Chased sunset, cracked open warm cocoa, and fell asleep to crickets tonight—this is the kind of reset only a wild camping spot can give
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The Ttien Trebars
The Ttien Trebars@tylergarrison5·
Just spent the morning volunteering at the local community food bank, sorting 200+ grocery items for families in need. Small acts make big impacts Feeling grateful for every bit of help!,
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
Got lost in a new psychological thriller last night—twists, tension, and zero screen time. Nothing beats the feel of a physical book.
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
[Just had the coziest late-night snack—warm matcha toast with a dusting of powdered sugar, crisp on the edges and fluffy in the middle. Pure tiny happiness in a bite!],
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Transaction Secretary
Transaction Secretary@GreatSaul3989·
Just hit submit on my final thesis after 12 months of late nights and coffee runs. Relieved doesn’t even cover it.
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The God Particla/Assistant
The God Particla/Assistant@TankTver_ru·
A stranger held the door for me when my hands were full of groceries and a crying baby—small kindness that made my whole day brighter.
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