Tariq

6.9K posts

Tariq

Tariq

@TariqOBAID

Casablanca, Grand Casablanca Katılım Ocak 2011
737 Takip Edilen148 Takipçiler
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇪🇬⛽ Egypt was supposed to be Europe's next gas corridor. BP may be walking away. - BP has invested $35 billion in Egypt over 6 decades and produces 60% of the country's natural gas - Egyptian gas output has collapsed: down 40% from 2024 and nearly 60% from 2023 - Egypt ran a gas surplus 3 years ago. It is now importing LNG - BP's new CEO is cutting debt and refocusing on profitable assets. Egypt no longer fits that brief - BP is reportedly considering selling its Egyptian gas assets per Reuters The wider picture: 🇮🇱 Leviathan and Tamar: war risk has frozen expansion decisions 🇨🇾 Cyprus: still years from first gas 🇪🇬 Zohr: declining faster than expected 🇱🇾🇲🇹 Chevron is simultaneously expanding into Malta and Libya Source: @jackprandelli
Mario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇦🇪🛢️ The UAE is building a second oil pipeline to Fujairah, bypassing the Strait of Hormuz entirely. - The new pipeline will raise UAE oil export capacity to above 70% of pre-war levels - Construction will take 18 months - The move reflects a growing belief in Abu Dhabi that the Strait may stay blocked far longer than anyone hoped The UAE is not waiting for a deal. It is building around the problem. Source: RN Intel

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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
OIL SPIKING, STOCKS DOWN SHARPLY. THE MARKETS KNOW SOMETHING WE DON'T, AND IT'S NOT GOOD
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
Our 5th warning: The bond market crisis is intensifying. The US 10Y Note Yield is now officially above 4.55% for the first time since May 2025. After weeks of euphoria, the market is beginning to react today. As we have been stating for the last few weeks, the current situation in the bond market is unsustainable. We are now above levels seen when President Trump implemented a "90-day tariff pause" in April 2025 due to a collapsing bond market. Furthermore, the market now sees a 60%+ chance that the Fed's next move is an interest rate HIKE, with rate cuts entirely priced-out. We expect to see 7%+ mortgages next, all as auto loan delinquencies have reached 32-year highs. Inflation is back and higher rates are coming.
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Grok
Grok@grok·
Le S&P 500 explose grâce aux tech giants (AI, Nvidia, etc.) et à la croissance US solide. Le MASI, lui, est dominé par banques, télécoms et phosphates, plus sensible à l'économie locale marocaine, aux matières premières et aux flux étrangers limités. C'est la divergence classique développé vs émergent. Pas de drame, juste des drivers différents.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The average price of ground beef in the US is now up to a record $6.90 per pound. On a non-seasonally adjusted basis, ground beef prices have exceeded $7.00 per pound for the first time in history. Prices have surged +77% since January 2020, when they stood at $3.89 per pound. Furthermore, the average price of uncooked beef steaks is up to a record $13.02 per pound, surging +70% since January 2020. Ground beef prices have now DOUBLED since 2013. Food inflation is running hotter than ever.
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🇺🇸 Ronald Carter
🇺🇸 Ronald Carter@USronaldcarter·
TRUMP-XI JUST PUBLISHED THE EXACT LIST OF WHAT THEY AGREED ON ABOUT IRAN AND HORMUZ Not vague summaries. Not "productive talks." NAMED COMMITMENTS. SPECIFIC POINTS. Item by item. 🇺🇸 US companies get expanded access to Chinese markets — signed off in Beijing, May 14 🇨🇳 China increases investment into the United States 🇺🇸 China cracks down harder on fentanyl flowing into America 🌾 China buys more American agricultural products 🛢 Hormuz Strait must stay open — both sides committed in writing ⚓ China explicitly opposes militarization of the Strait of Hormuz ⛽ China opposes anyone charging tolls to pass through Hormuz 🛳 China will buy MORE American oil specifically to reduce its own dependence on the Hormuz route ☢️ Both sides agree: Iran cannot have nuclear weapons 💀 9 named commitments 💀 ZERO quantitative targets in the readout 💀 ZERO new enforcement board created 💀 100% of the Hormuz points exist because Iran nearly shut the world's oil supply in February 2026 Every point on this list exists because Brent crude hit $113 a barrel after US-Israel strikes on Iran triggered the largest oil disruption in modern history. Not diplomacy for its own sake. CRISIS MANAGEMENT. China is Iran's top oil buyer. China just publicly told Tehran that a closed Hormuz is bad for Beijing too. The 2020 Phase One deal had the same structure. China missed almost every agricultural target in that deal. This readout has no numbers and no referee. I'll share more details shortly so turn on notifications, this is VERY important.
🇺🇸 Ronald Carter tweet media🇺🇸 Ronald Carter tweet media
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: US data center construction spending jumped +34% YoY in March, to a record $50 billion annualized rate. Spending on data centers is up +437% since the beginning of 2021, when the annualized rate stood at ~$9 billion. This is also up +688% since the start of 2018, when the annualized rate was just ~$6 billion. Meanwhile, office building construction spending fell -9% YoY in March, to $46 billion, the lowest since 2015. This means that spending on data centers now exceeds office building construction by $4 billion, or +9%. To put this into perspective, office construction spending exceeded data center spending by $65 billion, or +650%, in 2020. AI is fundamentally transforming the US economy.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: Copper prices have surged to a record $6.58 per pound, now up +75% since October 2023 and over +40% in 12 months. The surge comes amid tight supply, declining inventories in China, and surging demand for data center construction. Furthermore, supply disruptions at the world's 2nd-largest copper mine in Indonesia are adding to the pressure. Meanwhile, China's exports jumped +14% YoY in April, led by booming clean-tech shipments, components that are materially copper-intensive, tightening the market even further. The global economy is scrambling for copper.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: The White House has published a full list of business leaders who are joining President Trump on his trip to China: 1. Elon Musk, Tesla and SpaceX CEO 2. Tim Cook, Apple CEO 3. Larry Fink, BlackRock CEO 4. Stephen Schwarzman, Blackstone CEO 5. David Solomon, Goldman Sachs CEO 6. Jane Fraser, Citigroup CEO 7. Kelly Ortberg, Boeing CEO 8. Michael Miebach, Mastercard CEO 9. Ryan McInerney, Visa CEO 10. Larry Culp, GE CEO 11. Sanjay Mehrotra, Micron CEO 12. Cristiano Amon, Qualcomm CEO 13. Brian Sikes, Cargill CEO 14. Dina Powell McCormick, Meta Executive 15. Jacob Thaysen, Illumina CEO 16. Jim Anderson, Coherent CEO There may be additional CEOs who join the trip that are not yet named. We continue to believe the market is underestimating the potential outcomes of the US-China summit.
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Olivier Rimmel 🕊️
Olivier Rimmel 🕊️@OlivierRimmel·
Lisez bien. J’ai pas connu 1789 mais depuis 40 ans j’ai quand même connu 4 révolutions, et pas des moindres. L’informatique. La téléphonie mobile. L’internet. Et maintenant l’intelligence artificielle.
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The Kobeissi Letter
The Kobeissi Letter@KobeissiLetter·
BREAKING: April CPI inflation rises to 3.8%, its highest level since May 2023. Core CPI inflation also rose to 2.8%, above expectations of 2.7%. We are now experiencing post-pandemic inflation levels amid surging oil prices. Odds of Fed rate HIKES are surging.
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🇮🇷🇺🇸 The oil market just crossed the breaking point and there's no playbook for what comes next. The Strait of Hormuz closure knocked out 11 to 13 million barrels a day, roughly 4 times larger than any supply outage in history, and analysts at HFI Research say we are already past the point of no return. The sequence goes like this: refineries start running low on crude, they bid aggressively to secure whatever is left, prices stop moving in a straight line and go parabolic, and then at some point demand just... collapses on its own because people can't afford it anymore. Asia gets hit first and hardest since it depends most on Hormuz flows, and here's the brutal part: even if the Strait reopened today, actual oil deliveries to Asia wouldn't resume until mid-July. The only thing that could offset a shortage this size would be COVID-style government lockdowns, and nobody is ordering those. Without lockdowns, the only mechanism left is prices rising until people simply can't afford fuel anymore. At which point the economy breaks itself. HFI's honest conclusion: they have no idea where prices settle, and neither does anyone else There is simply no historical precedent for what is happening right now. Source: HFI Research
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇮🇷🇵🇰🇺🇸 Pakistan to CBS: Stop the BS, we didn't shelter any Iranian planes during the war CBS claimed some of Iran's military fleet was stationed at Pakistan's Nur Khan Airbase, saying it was to shield them from U.S airstrikes. Pakistan's government said only non-military aircraft arrived for the peace talks, and some of them remained there because elements of Iran's delegation stayed on, expecting further talks. The planes "bear no linkage whatsoever to any military contingency or preservation arrangement." Source: Pakistan Ministry of Foreign Affairs

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Sébastien Lecornu
Sébastien Lecornu@SebLecornu·
Cinq de nos compatriotes ont été rapatriés hier depuis le HM Hondius et sont placés à l’isolement strict à l’Hôpital Bichat. Quatre sont toujours testés négatifs. Notre compatriote positive à l’Hantavirus est toujours en réanimation dans un état stable. Huit Français, qui ont partagé le vol d’une personne malade il y a 15 jours, font l’objet d’un processus d’isolement renforcé en milieu hospitalier. Cas contacts à haut risque, aucun ne présente de symptômes. Notre réponse sanitaire est claire : pour tous les cas contacts, sans exception, quarantaine renforcée en milieu hospitalier. Deux réunions de coordination interministérielles auront lieu chaque jour à Matignon.
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Dr Jérôme BARRIERE, MD.
Dr Jérôme BARRIERE, MD.@barriere_dr·
Patient 0 #Hantavirus « Lors de son voyage en Argentine, le couple s’était rendu dans une déchetterie près de la ville d’Ushuaia pour observer le Caracara à gorge blanche, qui se trouve dans la région. Le site est connu par les passionnés d’ornithologie puisque les oiseaux viennent s’y nourrir. Toutefois, les locaux préfèrent l’éviter à cause des nombreux rongeurs présents et porteurs de l’hantavirus. Selon les autorités, c’est dans cette déchetterie que le couple aurait contracté le virus. » madame.lefigaro.fr/societe/actu/c…
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🛢️🇸🇦 Aramco is the world's largest oil producer. When its CEO says the market is broken, it matters. - CEO Amin Nasser says even if the Strait opens today, it will take months for oil markets to rebalance - Traffic through the Strait has collapsed from 70 vessels a day to just 2 to 5 - Futures markets and physical markets are disconnected, with strong refining margins signaling real supply tightness on the ground - Demand rationing will continue as long as the Strait stays disrupted - If normal shipping resumes, Nasser expects a "very robust return to demand growth" - Aramco's reserves stand at 250 billion barrels of oil equivalent, roughly 5 times the combined reserves of all international oil companies Source: CGTN, Al Arabiya
Mario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet mediaMario Nawfal tweet media
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal

🇶🇦🇦🇪🇮🇷 Mixed signals in the Strait of Hormuz. Tankers are moving, but not all in the same direction. - 2 Qatari LNG tankers and 1 Emirati LPG tanker departed their ports and began transiting the Strait through Omani waters - The Qatari tanker MIHZEM has since made a U-turn and is heading back toward the Persian Gulf - The Emirati tanker continues through the Strait Source: RN Intel

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Eric Feigl-Ding
Eric Feigl-Ding@DrEricDing·
BREAKING—French woman evacuated from the hantavirus cruise ship has tested positive and her health worsened in the hospital overnight, says French Health Minister Stephanie Rist. The woman was among 5 🇫🇷 passengers from MV Hondius. She developed symptoms on the flight to Paris.
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Olivier Rimmel 🕊️
Olivier Rimmel 🕊️@OlivierRimmel·
Lisez bien. Le dossier #Hantavirus est très sérieux, hélas. Je regrette de devoir l’écrire mais c’est vraiment très sérieux. C’est potentiellement bien plus grave que l’opération #Covid on va devoir suivre ça de très très près sans perdre de temps.
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Keşfet

@jackprandelli @elonmusk @BarackObama @taylorswift13 @cristiano @BillGates @NASA @nikifrancismediavine