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12.6K posts

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@TeachLearnGrow2
I just like to read about China, tech, history, geopolitics, nature, finance, etc etc. I’m boring, it’s fine.
Katılım Mayıs 2019
2.3K Takip Edilen220 Takipçiler

@samuraipips358 Before I buy, Is the guide mostly conceptual, or is it procedural enough that I can directly apply it to an unfinished system idea? Is the material still useful for index futures intraday traders, or is it mostly framed around FX spot trading (which I have no experience in)? Thx
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Thank you for your interest.
It is certainly smoother if you already have a strategy, but being at the idea stage is perfectly fine as well.
In the content, I explain the process of shaping that idea into something concrete, so you will be guided step by step to determine the specific conditions it should be translated into.
If you follow that process, even rules that are still undefined will first be provisionally defined, and from there you can move straight into testing.
I also explain in detail how to handle changes made during testing, so you can continue the trial and error process with peace of mind.
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How do you think about “periods when you are doing the right things but not making money”?
In trading, doing the right things does not mean you will win on the trade in front of you.
For example, a 50% win rate does not mean wins and losses will alternate.
You can lose three times in a row.
And just because you have lost three times in a row does not mean the next trade is any more likely to be a winner.
Probability does not remember the previous result.
This is a world of uncertainty, and a world in which short term results are heavily influenced by randomness.
If you are doing the right things, meaning you have tested and practiced in advance on a large sample size and are continuing to execute a system with positive expectancy consistently, then what matters is how you think during periods when profits are not showing up very much.
There is a profound difference in consistency between someone who interprets that period as “the system is broken” or “the market has changed,” and someone who sees it as “still in the middle of collecting samples.”
And that way of thinking, that interpretation, is precisely your belief structure, your thought process, and the length of your perspective.
If you have a short term perspective, hold the value system that “winning is good and losing is bad,” and use the result in front of you as your constant basis for judgment, then emotions corresponding to that thought process will inevitably arise.
And those emotions will drive behavior that matches them.
That is why I always say we need to transform those beliefs through thorough testing and practice.
A shift in belief cannot be achieved through intellectual understanding alone.
Simply knowing the data is meaningless.
You must make the law of large numbers work again and again “with your own hands,” and through that process, repeatedly experience with your own hands the variance and distribution specific to the strategy, while repeatedly going through the experience of being left with profits over the long run.
Through these experiences, your beliefs begin to change, and your thought process changes with them.
Your perspective becomes long term, and you become convinced that continuing consistent action is what leads to success.
You stop trying to stray from the path midway through.
That is because this new belief structure and thought process begin to generate a different set of emotions in response.
You begin to feel aversion to deviating from the rules.
And those emotions begin to drive you to act in a way that absolutely does not let you drift away from them.
In other words, how you interpret “periods when you are doing the right things but not making money” depends on how, through your preparation in advance, you have experienced and practiced through those periods that inevitably occur.
In the world of trading, where short term results are heavily influenced by randomness, having a long term perspective is indispensable.
But a long term perspective is not something you acquire by simply deciding to “think this way.”
It is built along the extension of thorough preparation, testing, building a system with an edge, and practice, and all of it is connected as a single structure.
If you do not yet have that structure, I wrote the blueprint for building it.
→ payhip.com/b/bqKpV

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@jeffstark_ 4yrs untill a friend introduced me to a strategy that fully works
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@cliftonoffun @AdamSiegel17 @ReboundRundown @thebadbearcat Right! I’m like don’t let the door hit ya on the way out, Wes!
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@AdamSiegel17 @ReboundRundown @thebadbearcat Grateful for what he did? What did he do? What am I missing?!? Demand more man
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@magicmike951 @SciGuySpace I’m hesitant to be joyful since I have doubts about them actually being and to carry this our. But still super excited!!
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@SciGuySpace I can honestly say this is the most pumped I've been for NASA. Especially that these initiatives are coming from them, not letting Congress dictate everything.
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Holy shit, we’re finally building a Moon base!
arstechnica.com/space/2026/03/…
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A vision of the @NASA moon base future, with @SpaceX & @BlueOrigin HLS landers, habitation modules, rovers, and @JAXA_en's pressurized rover.
📷 @NASA

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Trump declares almost 50% of Americans to be public enemy number one – right after Iran.
This is no longer politics; this is open civil war from the mouth of a president. Anyone who brands half of their own people – millions of ordinary Americans who simply vote differently – as the "greatest enemy" hasn't understood America; Trump hates it.
This rhetoric isn't "tough," it's treacherous. It destroys precisely what makes America strong: the idea that Americans, despite all their differences, are one nation.
Trump has just proven that he doesn't want to be president of all Americans – but merely the leader of a faction that considers the rest the enemy.
Insane. And extremely dangerous.

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@UCBarstool Everyone so confident we’ll get him. I’m hopeful, but not confident.
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"My goal is to get this thing to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament. We fell short of that goal this year, but we will be back. I'm very, very confident of that."
-Travis Steele
#RiseUpRedHawks
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@CBoxSports @MiamiOH_BBall See what happens when you play a REAL team!!! 😂
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True. This is exactly what catches most traders off guard.
I’ve been there — 5 losses in a row and I’d immediately start doubting the whole system and changing rules. After doing proper sample size testing (400+ trades), I finally accepted that losing streaks of 6-7 were completely normal for my strategy.
The system wasn’t broken. My patience was.
What sample size do you consider enough before trusting the drawdown numbers?
#TradingPsychology #TradingSystem #Backtesting #ForexTrading #TraderMindset
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I have been asked this a few times.
“How many consecutive losses mean the system is no longer working?”
The answer is,
“No losing streak means the system stopped working.”
Every losing streak that happens while you are following the rules was always part of the system’s real performance.
There is nothing wrong with it.
If it feels like a problem, it only means you never tested enough sample size in advance to know those stretches were possible.
Or it means your own execution is the problem.
In other words, the system has not lost its function at all.
Jumping into live trading with half-finished testing and practice only takes you on a longer detour.
It shows up as all kinds of symptoms that look like separate problems, and it erodes your consistency.
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@ThiccTeddy Man I literally banked $17 today on MES futures and was like “Done” and felt great about it! I am not trying to get rich quick cause that’s how you go broke fast!
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Most traders screw themselves over by focusing on the money they COULD have made
I see beginners do this all the time. They take a trade. They secure their profit & then lose their mind when the trade keeps running. That causes them to chase big moves for a period of time after they 'missed profit'
I've said it hundreds of times on here, there's nothing wrong with stacking small wins. After a bit, those small wins are not so small anymore
Another reason it's okay to lock in profit is YOU CAN ALWAYS GET BACK IN. If the stock continues to move in the direction you predicted, find another setup & ride the momentum again
It's incredibly harmful for traders to focus on what they missed out on. The only thing it will help you do is hold winning trades until they turn into losing trades
Keep yourself in check. Quit letting your emotions win
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“There shouldn't have been doubters. They weren’t justified…We can’t have a 68 team tournament and a team that goes undefeated for the entire damn regular season can’t make the tournament…I’m happy they won."
-Stephen A. Smith on @MiamiOH_BBall
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@CBoxSports Miami (oh) is Overrated and tonight will show it once again
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@AlgoTradingxAI @samuraipips358 I think I need to get into algo trading
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@samuraipips358 That’s why I love algo trading. A bot never sees the P&L mid-trade. Conditions in, conditions out. Nothing in between changes the logic.
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Do not watch P/L during the trade.
Do not think about it.
Your current P/L has nothing to do with your next decision.
You calculated the necessary size.
You entered on the necessary signal.
Now all that remains is to exit on the conditions you defined in advance.
The more you watch P/L, the more your opinion starts entering the trade.
You start thinking about what you want to do with the unrealized profit or unrealized loss in front of you.
That opinion creates emotion.
That emotion drives you into actions you will not be able to avoid.
That is how you turn the current trade into a special one-off event.
Build an environment and rules that remove unnecessary thinking.
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@I_Am_Sharingan @tradertheory Good advice but it’s so hard to do especially when you aren’t sure if your TP is a reasonable target!
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@tradertheory A key turning point in your development, not necessarily the fastest way is this:
Once you're in a trade, stay out of your own way. Let it hit TP (or trail based on your system) or SL. Everything else messes with your probability %.
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