Teelo

The Musetti case is clay. He leads 2355 to 1774 on surface ELO, and their only clay meeting was Monte-Carlo 3 weeks ago: 1-6 7-5 6-2 Musetti. Lehecka brings the tougher résumé. Musetti brings the better clay version. teeloratings.com/matches/707567

Lehecka is 2-1 in the H2H, and his last 8 opponents have averaged 3435 ELO to Musetti's 2749. That's why Madrid only comes out 53-47 Musetti, even with Lorenzo 215 points clear overall.

Tsitsipas vs Merida is still the strangest number on the board: 27-73. Tsitsipas has finally banked 2 Madrid wins, but the ratings haven't really recovered — 1730 overall to Merida's 2918. Merida has already stacked 4 Madrid wins including qualies. teeloratings.com/matches/707170

Budkov Kjaer has made this interesting fast: through qualifying, +145 ELO across Madrid, then a 59-point jump from beating Shapovalov. Medvedev is still 77-23 because the bigger tier is huge — 4006 to 2750 overall — and his recent opposition has averaged 3182 ELO.

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The shape matters as much as the headline. April has 3,478 completed Teelo predictions so far: 1,147 in the 50-60 band and 626 at 80%+. If the low band sits near coin-flip and the top band clears 90%, the calibration is probably in a pretty healthy place.

50-60%: 53.1% 60-70%: 67.6% 70-80%: 76.8% 80%+: 90.3%

April so far, Teelo's confidence bands are doing the boring useful thing you want from a model:

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Gauff is 74-26 over Cirstea. The overall gap is 3598 to 3090 and the clay gap is even wider at 2155 to 1455. Cirstea has won 8 of her last 11 and took their Miami meeting to 3 sets, but this is still a very different tier. teeloratings.com/matches/706784

Zheng vs Rybakina is the premium one. On clay they're basically level — Zheng 2107, Rybakina 2043 — but overall it's 4140 to 3185, so Teelo still has Rybakina 73-27. The recent résumé is tougher too: avg opp ELO 3316 to 2920. teeloratings.com/matches/706788

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