Tendex

Why do you keep losing? A new post that fleshes out an approach to trading from first principles... [thread] tendex.substack.com/p/firstprincip…

There is an imposter account @TendexCapitaI attempting to be me using a capital "i" instead of "L". Please report! I will NEVER solicit you or spout nonsense about crypto. And hoping to get active again soon; just been tied down w/ some efforts requiring my full attention.

@cryptojoggy Yeah, a scammer using an uppercase “i” instead of an L. Trying to get removed (pls report)…but it’s anyone’s guess as to how many are left to man the desks now at TWTR to handle the “fake/knock-off accounts”.

@stig1985 Thanks man. Had another child recently and have been largely disengaged with most other things at the moment. I’ll be back in front of the screens soon though hopefully.

@jmaldo1024 It’s a measure of delta or orderflow change. I don’t use it much, it was just something I experimented with and it keeps my charts clean so I’ve left it.

@TendexCapital What do the red and green bars mean ?

See that large offer in the orderflow? Delta is mixed, but very large size is selling, NQ is relatively weak, but #ES_F strong, it's option expiry ... on and on ... Sometimes the best mode of action in trading is just to find what's working and then keep it simple, stupid. #KISS

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 8:00ET Thu Jun 16 2022 Global markets risk-off after BoE raises rates +25bps on heels of +75bps FOMC; Housing Starts, Jobless Claims & Philly Fed at 830ET; Equity futures rollover cont. BMO: $KR AMC: $ADBE #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 8:10ET Wed Jun 15 2022 Global mkts risk-on ahead of ECB & FOMC announcements; Heavy news docket today w/Retail Sales, Empire Mfg, NAHB, EIA, TIC; Lagarde at 12ET & Powell at 230ET. Rollover cont; No earnings. #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

Equity futures rollover continues in high gear today with #ES_F pace of roll just over 70% complete as we enter the Tuesday RTH session. Keep in mind that all orderflow, delta, volume and related futures data will be affected by the roll and therefore less reliable. $SPY #NQ_F

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 8:00ET Tue Jun 14 2022 Global mkts mixed risk after bear selloff ystrdy; More inflation data w/PPI at 8:30ET (0.8%e MoM, 11%e YoY, Core 8.7%e YoY); Equity futures rollover continues. BMO: $CNM $FERG AMC: na #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

Rollover in equity indices kicks into full-gear this week; #ES_F roll currently stands at ~40% complete, well below the typical ~70% completion rates that are common going into Monday of roll week. Note the CME recently made technical changes to the ES roll date. $SPY #NQ_F

@HF_Trader CME has only applied new front roll date (Mon) to ES, but not to the other equity indices—which is dumb; needs uniformity. That's a technicality, but the underlying dynamics seem to be the same: actual roll heaviest on Fri/Mon. For now, ES roll factor=Fri settle; others Wed SETL.

Pardon my ignorance - how does this new roll procedure work?

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 7:50ET Fri Jun 10 2022 EU markets risk-off, US balanced ahead ahead of CPI at 830ET (Est: 0.7% MoM, 8.3% YoY; Core: 0.5% and 5.9%); Also, Cons Sentiment at 10ET, BH Rig 1ET, Treasury Statement 2ET; No earnings #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

@Orbitald Wall Street Fat Cats, QED ;)

Not that any of us needed any more reason to drink coffee, but in case you wanted another excuse... "Altogether, these findings suggest that regular caffeine intake improves the signal-to-noise ratio during information encoding, in part thru a fine-tuning of metabolic genes..."

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 7:40ET Wed Jun 8 2022 Global mkts quiet balance-modest risk-off O/N; Lite news docket w Wholesale Inventories & Sec Yellen before House Ways & Means at 10ET; EIA at 1030; 10Y auction 1ET. BMO: $CPB AMC: $ABM #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 7:50ET Thu May 26 2022 Global mkts modest risk-on; 2nd est Q1 GDP at 830ET w/Claims; Pending Home Sales 10ET; KC Mfg Index 11ET; Fed's Brainard speaks crypto to House 12ET. BMO: $AVGO $BABA $DG $M AMC: $COST $DELL #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM

Happy Birthday to the OG of indices — and the media darling for sensationalism in quoting market performance — the Dow Jones Industrial Average, first published this day, May 26, 1896, at a value of 40.94. #YM_F $DJIA

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 8:20ET Wed May 25 2022 Global markets modest risk-off; All eyes on May FOMC Minutes at 2ET; Also, Durable Goods at 8:30ET; EIA Oil at 10:30ET; Brainard gives JHU commencement at 12:15ET. BMO: $DKS AMC: $NVDA #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY

Monthly OPEX week led to the 7th week of declines for #ES_F -2.79% or -1.2 sigma on a wkly basis. 5D HV is 16.9% (implies +/-1.1% per day). Range stats for the wk ahead (5/22-27): +/-93pts. Based on rolling 12wk realized vol for past 5Y (distro 1/2/3 sigma is 67%/90%/97%). $SPY

@NikLentz Happy Birthday! My daughter actually turns two today as well (5/21).

4 tomorrow! ❤️

Premarket Positioning & Key Events Ahead—As of 7:45ET Fri May 20 2022 Global mkts risk-on as monthly options expiration is main event ($460B stock, $850B S&P); Another retailer $ROST bites dust -27% post-EPS; Limited econ today, w/Rig count 1ET. BMO: $DE #ES_F #NQ_F $IWM $SPY