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Opinion ↔ Polymarket Arbitrage
Find and exploit surebet opportunities
This page demonstrates a surebet (arbitrage opportunity) between an Opinion market and a Polymarket market. A surebet occurs when combined probabilities across markets guarantee profit regardless of the outcome.
Markets Overview
Opinion Market: A decentralized prediction market where users create and trade on various outcomes.
Polymarket: A popular prediction market platform for betting on real-world events.
💡 Surebet Example
Consider a binary event: Outcome A or Outcome B.
In Opinion, Outcome A is priced at 0.6 (60%) and Outcome B at 0.4 (40%).
In Polymarket, both are priced at 0.5 (50%).
By betting on Outcome A in Opinion and Outcome B in Polymarket, a trader can lock in profit no matter which outcome occurs.
Conclusion
Such surebets reveal pricing inefficiencies in prediction markets and offer traders profit opportunities from discrepancies. However, transaction costs and liquidity must be considered when exploiting them.
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