TexasTrader69

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TexasTrader69

@TexasTrader69

Katılım Mayıs 2024
41 Takip Edilen68 Takipçiler
TexasTrader69
TexasTrader69@TexasTrader69·
@AntonLaVay So you like $PSUS over $PS? $PSUS does have a smaller float, yet I saw 1 poster post that they bought $PS and were not interested in $PSUS. I am interested in the one that can give the greatest gains!
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Manchurius Hao — Greeks.live首席赌狗
My view: at $30, the market is severely underpricing Bill Ackman himself. TL;DR What does $PS at $30 mean? And why is buying $PS investing in Bill Ackman himself? What $30 $PS means in valuation terms PS has ~400M fully diluted shares (he mentioned $26.25 was the price Iconiq paid for a 10% stake two years ago, which back-solves to the share count). $30 × 400M = $12B market cap Three reference anchors: 1. Iconiq private anchor: $26.25 (June 2024, when fee-paying AUM was only half of what it is today). $30 is 14% above this, but today’s fee base has doubled. 2. Peer DE multiples: pro-forma DE ~$400-500M, $30 implies 24-30x DE. Compared to BX ~19x, KKR ~15x, APO ~20x. $30 is a 30-50% premium to peers. After all, Ackman is the kind of celebrity-status manager with deep political and business connections. Three-scenario probability weighting: Bear (Ackman declines / performance fee engine stalls): ~$13/share Base (continuation of historical performance): ~$21 Bull (Berkshire path works, AUM to $200B over 10 years): ~$50-60 $30 implies the market is pricing the “Berkshire path” at about 28-30% probability. Personally, I think the current 30% probability somewhat underestimates Bill Ackman. Why is buying PS investing in Bill Ackman himself? Many people get confused — “I’m bullish on Ackman, what should I buy?” The answer is PS. Because “investing in Ackman” actually has three different meanings: First: investing in his “stock-picking ability” i.e., betting on his alpha against the S&P 500. Corresponding tool: buy $PSUS. In this case PS is not a good choice — you only get the small slice he takes from his own alpha. Second: investing in him as a “capital allocator” i.e., his ability to use permanent capital for UMG-scale acquisitions, integration, and long-term holding. Only $PS gives you this exposure. Berkshire’s appreciation didn’t come from Buffett picking stocks — it came from him acquiring entire companies and recycling the cash flows back to the holdco for redeployment. This is “capital allocator alpha” beyond the fee stream, and only manifests at the management company level. Third: investing in him as a “business builder” i.e., whether he can turn Pershing from “a hedge fund” into a permanent institution that survives even after Ackman is gone. This includes: brand, retail distribution channels (2M X followers + Robinhood + $250 minimum subscription), new fund-raising flywheel, Ryan Israel’s succession structure. This portion of value lives 100% in $PS.
Manchurius Hao — Greeks.live首席赌狗@AntonLaVay

我的核心观点:当前30刀的定价严重低估了Bill Ackman这个人本身。 TL: DR $30 的 $PS 意味着什么?为什么买 $PS 就是投资 Bill Ackman 本身 $30 的 $PS 在估值上意味着什么 PS 全面摊薄约 4 亿股(他提到 $26.25 是两年前 Iconiq 入股 10% 的价格,反推总股本) $30 × 4亿 = $120亿市值 三个参考锚点: 1. Iconiq 私募锚点:$26.25(2024 年 6 月,当时 fee-paying AUM 仅为现在的一半)。$30 比这高 14%,但今天的 fee 基础已翻倍. 2. 同业 DE 倍数:pro-forma DE 约 $400-500M,$30 对应 24-30x DE。对比 BX 约 19x、KKR 约 15x、APO 约 20x。$30 相对同业溢价 30-50%。毕竟是Ackman这种网红明星且政商关系深厚的经理人。 三情景概率加权: 熊市(Ackman 老去 / 业绩费引擎熄火):约 $13/股 基准(维持过往水平):约 $21 牛市(Berkshire 路径成立,10 年 AUM 到 $200B):约 $50-60 $30 隐含的市场定价 = 给 “Berkshire 路径成立” 约 28-30% 的概率权重。 我个人觉得当前定价30%概率有点太低估Bill Ackman了。 为什么买 PS 就是投资 Bill Ackman 这个人? 很多人会混淆,“我看好 Ackman” 应该买什么?答案是 PS。原因在于 “投资 Ackman” 这件事其实有三种不同含义: 第一种:投资他的”选股能力” 即押注他未来跑赢 S&P 500 的 alpha。 对应工具:买 $PSUS。 这种情况下 PS 不是好选择,你只能拿到他对自己 alpha 抽成的那一小部分。 第二种:投资他作为“资本配置者” 即他用永久资本做 UMG 这种规模并购、整合、长期持有的能力。只有 $PS 能给你这个敞口。 Buffett 的 Berkshire 升值不是靠 Buffett 选股,是靠他收购整家公司之后让现金流回到 holdco 再投资。这是 fee stream 之外的“capital allocator alpha”,只在管理公司层面体现。 第三种:投资他作为“业务建造者” 即他能不能把 Pershing 从“一个对冲基金”建成一个 Ackman 不在了之后还能存续的永续机构。包括:品牌、零售分销渠道(X 200万粉丝 + Robinhood + $250 最低申购)、新基金募集飞轮、Ryan Israel 的接班体系。 这部分价值 100% 在 $PS 上。

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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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TexasTrader69
TexasTrader69@TexasTrader69·
$JLHL Lots of volume in the pre-market this morning; bought 304 shares at $10.20, wish I'd waited have and got them at $9.50 40 minutes later. This COULD be they day they take off with all the volume this morning; let's hope. 🚀🚀🚀
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Mr. Star Spangled MAGA
Mr. Star Spangled MAGA@4thOfJuly365·
If this picture was a scratch-n-sniff sticker, what do you think it would smell like?
Mr. Star Spangled MAGA tweet media
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Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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TexasTrader69 retweetledi
Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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Interstellar
Interstellar@InterstellarUAP·
Alex Jones on Joe Rogan: "ALIENS aren’t from outer space… they’re interdimensional entities that ONLY contact you if YOU invite them first" 👽 What do you think? Are 'ALIENS' actually interdimensional beings manipulating humanity?
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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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Tianrong Internet Products and Services, Inc.
We are very excited for the future of the company. We are in negotiations. We will come out what has been happening in the background thank you very much. $TIPS
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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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AlphaFox
AlphaFox@alphafox·
What would cause this? 🧐
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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
Sunday Full Show: US Military Seizes Iranian Vessel Trying To Get Past Naval Blockade In Gulf of Oman & Are Now “Seeing What’s On Board!” Trump Slams Iran For Violating Ceasefire, Renews Threats To Destroy Every Power Plant & Bridge If New Deal Fails! “No More Mr. Nice Guy!” The Alex Jones Show - FULL SHOW - 04.19.2026
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TexasTrader69
TexasTrader69@TexasTrader69·
Peeps buying $ISPC the past 2 days could have bought $TIPS at .0004 Wednesday and $TIPS closed at .0027 (7X) today and I am willing to bet that next week, $TIPS will be in .04 range while $ISPC MIGHT get a 2-4x and these newbies continue to say "OTC's garbage"
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TexasTrader69
TexasTrader69@TexasTrader69·
Wow, all the people buying $AGAE the past 2 days could have bought $TIPS at .0004 Wednesday and Thursday and $TIPS closed at .0027 today and I am willing to bet that next week, $TIPS will be in .04 range while $AGAE MIGHT get a 4x and these newbies continue to say "OTC's garbage"
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Alex Jones
Alex Jones@RealAlexJones·
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