BREAKING: President Trump's "48-hour warning" to Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz expires at 10:05 AM ET on Monday, April 6th.
This also happens to be 35 minutes after the US stock market reopens after the 3-day weekend.
We will be covering the highly eventful next 48 hours.
Everyone's watching hike odds. Nobody's watching the Fed's balance sheet quietly grow.
Here's the bull case nobody is talking about:
QT is over in practice.
The Fed is already buying T-bills to keep reserves "ample" and rolling Treasury principal. That's balance sheet expansion while rates sit still.
- Remember that cash buffer (ON RRP) I said was empty (~$0.3B)? That's actually the key.
When it was full, Fed purchases just recycled cash inside money market funds, no real impact.
Now that it's empty, every dollar the Fed puts in hits bank reserves directly.
- More reserves = easier credit conditions at the front end of the market, even without a rate cut.
The Fed is loosening without touching rates. Most people have no idea this is happening.
- April prediction:
1. Fed balance sheet (WALCL) prints above $6.72T by month-end
2. 3-month T-bill yields drop below 3.50%
If that happens, front-end rates are easing while everyone debates hikes.
If it doesn't, I'm wrong, simple as that.
(Posted the bear case last week. Now you have both sides)
BREAKING: The US economy adds 178,000 jobs in March, crushing expectations of 65,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, below expectations of 4.4%.
This marks the biggest monthly job addition since March 2025.
A much stronger than expect jobs report amid the Iran War.
We’re back at yesterday’s close.
What a massive rally, I’ve never seen a move like that in my career.
I think I missed the boat.
It’s okay, I’m a good swimmer.
RECAP:
$TSLA ( Apr 2 )
Heavy selloff all day for TSLA but not the overall market.
Lost every key level -> no real bids.
Weak structure, steady downside.
Lesson: when it’s one-sided, don’t overthink.
Follow the trend.
(Edu only)
Markets closed tomorrow (Good Friday).
RECAP:
$QQQ ( Apr 1 )
Strong pump off support -> trend up.
Upper zone tagged, then sharp pullback.
Volatile, but levels held.
Momentum days still respect zones.
Take profits into strength.
(Edu only)