Mikey

@thangdo03 @FinanceLancelot @rrobert7771 Definitely

@FinanceLancelot @rrobert7771 Is the Vance negotiations make a break type deals?

Did the Dow Jones $DJI just complete the topping pattern perfectly on April 10th? Sure looks like March 2025 doesn't it? If so, Elliott Wave (b) is complete implying something changes this weekend to create the larger wave (c). The USS George Bush and Boxxer aren't in place yet for an invasion of Iran but they will be next week. The roll over next week is likely a rapid deterioration after the Iran talks fail. A complete breakdown after April 17 would involve something major like a cyber attack, ground invasion of Iran or Houthis cutting off the Red Sea. That last one would be a disaster because total global oil supply would drop 32%.

@SJCapitalInvest My take is that it will definitely be that way in B2C, but B2B has more resilient moats. Businesses with larger offline components and B2B will be less impacted initially imho. Are you familiar with the Sparkline AI ETF's? I think Kai's approach is quite interesting.

@TheCryptian1 I’m telling you. It won’t be that way. There will be winners and losers. Fast. And the market will price it in when it becomes clear that it WILL happen. Not when it happens.

We are about to come out of the Trough of Disillusionment in the AI Hype Cycle But the Plateau of Productivity will be much higher than the Peak of Inflated Expectations. The war has created an opportunity. Nothing can stop what is about to happen. The time is now.

@SJCapitalInvest Total legend. Sorry to lose you. Feel free to drop your updated folio every few months. I'll keep you on notifications if you ever do. Your perspective and framework have been a huge help

Basically these three guides are my investing brain. You can get my POV after I delete this account by using the steps below. The easiest thing to do to get my POV on a stock: 1. Rip the two investing guides word for word. 2. Drop them into Gemini / Claude / perplexity 3. Tell it to use them as a guide and drop in a ticker to analyze based on the guides. Definitely use the strongest model possible and not on “fast” 4. You need to push back and ask follow up questions. Make sure the info it’s using is up to date. Don’t just take it as gospel. One note: I mention P/S as a way to evaluate a stock and how expensive it is, I have moved to EV/Sales because it takes debt into account. Make sure you are comping stocks to others in their sector or it doesn’t work. You have to evaluate stocks against their peer group. You can’t comp $AMPX to Kohls. These aren’t perfect and they miss stuff. Just because it says it a pass doesn’t mean it won’t be a great OPP… and vice versa. But it is a system that has been effective for me.

@SJCapitalInvest I hope you’re right. Sorry to hear we’re losing you. Any chance you could share the system you use to assess new tickers?

@TheCryptian1 I can tell you with 100% certainty and confidence it is not toppy. Literally top of the first inning. I am betting my career on it.

If you have followed me for a while you know I love $nbis but I use stayed away just due to sector weakness (strongest pillar of my framework) I believe there is such a huge boom coming in ai capacity demand they just can’t stay on sale much longer. I think it’s time.

@zacschramm @SJCapitalInvest Mind sharing the pipeline? Have been working on something similar

@SJCapitalInvest I have been using an adapted prompt pipeline based on your guides. $NBIS is one of only a handful of names that’s made it through.

@SJCapitalInvest Sounds amazing. Like a fun version of “yes man”

“Yes day” was amazing and completely exhausting. Premise: We have to say yes to everything my kids ask for, as long as it’s not dangerous or unreasonably expensive. The Recap: - Chocolate Croissants for breakfast - Arcade games, bowling, air hockey at the mall for +3 hours - McDonald’s for lunch (he’s 5 and we don’t normally let him eat it) - Beach and sand castles for 90 min - Drive to Monaco and eat on the water (mommy and daddy had prosecco and beer) - Monaco Basket Game at night (court side, but that was on me, not him. Again, cheaper than Knicks tickets) - Drive back home and Burger King in the car - DannyGo on Netflix before bed. Truly beat but an unforgettable day and two happy kids. Side note: hugely helpful that I am in an area that has tons of stuff tightly packed together. 35 min to mall in the late morning, 45 min to Monaco then 45 min back to St Jeannet. We plan to do it once a year. Actually wouldn’t have been expensive if I didn’t splurge on courtside seats, again, he didn’t ask for that. Really he just wanted to spend the day hanging out with us getting all our attention❤️ This pic of my wife and son in Monaco while he was exhausted is 🔥

@SJCapitalInvest could be a great short when the bubble pops too

$DRAM New AI Memory ETF launched last week. Not the most diversified ETF but it’s hard to imagine this doesn’t have a ton of runway ahead of it.

@fkronawitter1 I can’t personally see how Trump allows this long term. My assumption is he has another run at it after he loses mid terms. If you had to bet, which way would you go?

The market's next directional move can be boiled down to one variable: - Can/will Trump force Israel to halt its operation in Lebanon? Israel is unlikely to stop its offensive on its own, and Iran is unlikely to ditch Hezbollah as ally. Thus, the success of the ceasefire hinges on this dynamic If the ceasefire is deferred or void, oil futures likely catch up to their physical counterparts as delivery nears, and risk gets hit hard. Conversely, should the Strait fully open and more so sanction be lifted, an oil glut likely awaits The odds for this one variable are very dynamic and have to be assessed daily. However, a failed ceasefire is currently not the market's base case

@SJCapitalInvest @Kaizen_Investor Tonight is where we find out if its taco for dinner or if its nachos. (N.A.C.H.O. – Not A Chicken, Obviously)

@Kaizen_Investor Bro he’s playing 84625 dimensional chess. Iran is about to give us all their oil, Arab spring is coming, and we enter the golden age. You will regret selling now

Happy to be 25% in cash atm. I have never had more than 5%. But I just don’t trust that guy. No rush to use my cash.

@SJCapitalInvest Halfway through renovating a ruin in Portugal. Can totally relate to this. Here's hoping the next run is the best yet.

It will be a quiet week from me: - Spring Break vacay w/ the fam - Week off before new job - Selling my SPAC Villa TLDR: This house is my 2020 spac run. Here is how I blew $500k trying to do the smart thing: After my huge win in 2020/2021 SPAC market, much like this run I wanted to put in some systems to protect myself and not give it back. However I was younger and not as savvy, also at the time I was truly day trading, using margin (I don’t do this now) and almost 100% in spac warrants. I ran up about $1M from a $50k base in 10 months, when I lost $200k in a week as the market turned I took all my money out as it was clear to me the market changed. My wife and I decided to buy a house by her family in the South of France. The plan was to renovate it and Airbnb it, while also having a vacation home. Generally idea being to lock up the money. Great in theory, terrible in practice. Here is Everything I did Wrong that cost me $500k: ❗️Taxes - I did not favor in the taxes on my stock wins. We just took the money and bought the house. Turns out it doesn’t work like that. By the time we realized we owed +$350k we didn’t have the money to pay it and were halfway into a remodel. The interest here got crazy. I believe +60k by the time we paid it all off ❗️Remodel in Wrong Neighborhood - The house is incredible. But we bought it in a tiny village 35 min from Nice. Certain neighborhoods can only support a house valuation up to a certain level. We were never going to get the value back for what we put in where the house was. People just aren’t paying what we would want here. ❗️Bad Contractors / Permitting Issues This is the biggest one. We went with a family friend as our lead architect + contractor. Well it turns out he never got the proper permitting to do the work. The city would not bless the project after it was done, so we are selling a house they will never be approved, which comes with risk on the buyer and dropped the price by 30%. We may take legal action here but it’s ultimately on us to verify everything everyone says because at the end of the day it’s our money. This crushed the resale value and wiped our chances of getting all our money back. The Positives 🔹Airbnb / Renting We did make a lot of money over the years renting it. In the spring / summer it was generally 90% booked at +1000 a night. Probably averaged $1350/ night in peak season. But this came with a ton of hassle. Plus airbnb + property manager took 33% of the income. Last year we got lucky and someone paid us a year up front to rent the house at $8k euro a month. Much more than carrying costs but maintenance on house and yard etc still annoying and expensive. Overall we absolutely never want to be in the hospitality business again. 🔹The Life Experience My wife and I got advanced degrees in life management. Contractors, international taxes, running a business, remodel, expenses etc etc etc…. My wife and I aren’t the same people we were before and we view big decisions and money differently now. We are conscious of where we invest our money, but more importantly our energy and the life we want to build. I bought a Rolex and a Villa in 2021. Things I would never do again. Additionally, I did get to live here during my paternity leave, my daughter was born here, and I made great friends in the process. I wouldn’t take it back for those reasons. We can afford to keep it, we could easily Airbnb it. But the time and emotional drag isn’t aligned with the life we want. So this is officially the last time here. Hosting family and saying goodbye. It is emotional but healthy. The person you hear from now was built through this experience.

@vulturetrades Guide

If you're an options trader - there's a hack you should learn that no one is talking about. It makes finding 100% trades way more consistent. I grew an account from $1k → $19,400 in 13 days using the exact same two concepts every single day. I made a FREE 5-page guide that will teach you this same exact strategy. Like + comment “Guide” and I will send you a DM. (Must be following to DM)

@X_FINALBOSS How

I went to a private millionaires–only mastermind with 12 young entrepreneurs selling digital products and info, each person making 7 to 9 figures per year (in LA, Beverly Hills) I've never felt so behind and broke even tho im making millions already people were making millions with ebooks and courses on a variety of topics/niches: Ecom, Tik Tok shop, websites, etc I've gathered some secret business methods including : 1) how they're getting millions of views per week 2) converting those views into $3K+ sales daily 3) how to automate the entire thing and build systems 4) breakdown example of posts and products sold 5) show you how many sales, sales calls, entire funnel 6) case studies : how complete beginners scaled to $100K+ per month within 8 months with the right methods 7) and how you can get started :) comment "HOW" if you want this must be following + retweet to receive

@hkuppy @CultishCreative @excessreturnpod Been too long between podcasts. Looking forward to a listen

Recently sat down to chat investments and process with @CultishCreative on the @excessreturnpod Tune in below👇👇

@vulturetrades Ipo

Spacex IPO will be the next 1000x play Mark my words… I found another one similar. 100x ipo play. Fully under the radar Like + comment “ipo” and ill send it to you

@KobeissiLetter Interesting hey? Hard to know what's true and what's not.

BREAKING: Oman's oil prices extend losses to -46% from their peak, now down -$80/barrel in just 9 days. Markets are pricing-in an end to the Iran War.

My talk on the world after the US-Iran War: youtu.be/zAer-Mqe7tQ?si…

@lamps_apple This is poor analysis. Trump won't win if he bombs Irans power. The retaliation will escalate to boots on the ground. And then he's really lost.

The denial is necessary for the deal to work. Iran needs to publicly deny while privately negotiating. This is how every authoritarian regime exits a losing war. You never admit you’re talking until the deal is done, signed, and irreversible. Then you present it as a victory… “we forced the Americans to stop bombing,” “we extracted concessions,” “we negotiated from strength.” The denial is the face-saving mechanism that makes capitulation possible. But.. what if Iran is telling the truth? What if there are no negotiations? In that case, Trump just did something even more extraordinary and far more dangerous. He announced to the world that Iran is negotiating a “complete and total resolution” when Iran hasn’t agreed to any such thing. He suspended military strikes against power plants based on conversations that may not exist in the way he described. Why? The trap. If Trump publicly announces negotiations and suspends strikes, and Iran publicly denies it, Trump has created a binary for Iran.. Option A... Iran stays silent, lets the “negotiations” narrative stand, and uses the space to actually begin negotiating. The denial was just for domestic consumption. The back channel is real. The deal proceeds. Option B... Iran aggressively denies it, doubles down on defiance, and continues attacking. In which case Trump says... I offered them peace. I paused our strikes in good faith. They responded with lies and more violence. Now I have the full moral authority to hit the power plants, hit Kharg Island, and escalate to whatever level I choose. The world watched me extend an olive branch and they slapped it away. Either way, Trump wins. If Iran is quietly negotiating, he gets the deal. If Iran genuinely refuses, he gets the justification for the next phase of escalation with the entire world having watched him try diplomacy first. There’s also a third possibility. “Conversations” doesn’t necessarily mean direct US-Iran negotiations. Trump said “the United States of America, and the country of Iran, have had… very good and productive conversations.” That language is deliberately ambiguous. The conversations could be happening through intermediaries… Oman, Qatar, the UAE, even China. Iran can truthfully say “we have not spoken to the Americans” while Omani diplomats are shuttling messages between Washington and whoever is actually running Iran right now. This is exactly how the original Iran nuclear deal began. Back-channel negotiations through Oman that neither side acknowledged until the framework was already in place. Trump would know this history. He’d also know that the IRGC hardliners would never authorize direct talks. But they might authorize an Omani or Qatari intermediary to “explore possibilities” while maintaining public denial. The word “conversations” is doing a lot of work in that post. It doesn’t say negotiations. It doesn’t say talks. It doesn’t say diplomacy. Conversations. That could be as informal as a message passed through a third party. Iran can deny formal negotiations truthfully while conversations through intermediaries are absolutely happening. If Iran’s denial is performative (for domestic consumption while talks continue), you’ll see… no major Iranian escalation in the next 48-72 hours. The Strait attacks slow down. The missile barrages against Israel and Gulf states decrease in frequency. Iran doesn’t hit another Gulf energy facility. The IRGC rhetoric stays hot but the operational tempo cools. If Iran’s denial is genuine (no talks, no intermediaries, total rejection), you’ll see... an immediate escalation. Another Diego Garcia attempt. More strikes on Gulf energy infrastructure. A major attack on a US base or vessel. The IRGC uses the “pause” in power plant strikes as a window to reconstitute and reposition. The next 48 hours of Iranian behavior will tell you whether the denial is theater or truth. Watch what they do, not what they say. Trump is watching the same thing.

@SJCapitalInvest @AuditTheHerd Who else do you rate? This is exactly why you're my fave follow atm.

Came across a newer Fin-X profile today: @AuditTheHerd I read several of his posts and it almost feels like I am writing these in a different timeline. If you are doing concentrated ports/asymmetric investing, this person is executing a legitimate strategy. A few observations: 🔹 Not afraid to bail on an investment when the thesis breaks. This is probably the thing I see kill the smartest accounts on X, getting married to a stock vs the thesis. 🔹He actually shows his loses and the reality of concentrated portfolios. Something I do but have not seen many others do, most accounts love to claim the wins and bury the losses. People aren’t stupid. 🔹 Strong deep dives with good research and logic. I don’t necessarily agree with his investments (primarily because my frameworks is deeply based around sector momentum) but I understand how he is getting there and there is real work and pressure testing behind it. 🔹 Ultra Concentrated Portfolio This is aggressive even for me. I don’t know the size of his portfolio but 3 positions is definitely serious conviction and risk tolerance. You really need to be giving every investment a colonoscopy to only hold three positions. You also need to stomach massive volatility and not 💩 your pants. There are definitely some things I would do differently but you can’t argue with what looks like 400% gains over two years. 🔹I predict he will likely make a lot of money over time and quickly have a lot of followers🔹 I just haven’t seen many accounts doing deep thoughtful research, not afraid to pull the plug when the facts on an investment change, and showing real transparency of the ups and downs. It’s a pretty sure fire path to success on Fin-X… assuming he continues to outperform. Worth a follow 🔹