The Human In Loop

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The Human In Loop

The Human In Loop

@TheHumanInLoop

Notes on banking growth, customer behaviour, distribution and AI. | Decoding the future one insight at a time

India Katılım Nisan 2024
17 Takip Edilen6 Takipçiler
The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
What actually matters: distribution still beats product in payments. PhonePe won by going offline early — 50M merchants, 98% postal code coverage. Customer switching happens at merchant counters, not in app stores. That's the duopoly no regulation can easily fix.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
The irony: Amazon and Meta — two of the world's stickiest platforms — are asking regulators to break someone else's customer lock-in. They understand habit formation better than anyone. They just don't like being on the other side of it.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
PhonePe + Google Pay = 80% of India's 22.6 billion monthly UPI transactions. Amazon and Meta are lobbying for caps. But this isn't just a regulatory fight. It's a customer inertia case study disguised as a competition problem.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
@AlexH_Johnson @ravi_riley True for spend, but what happens when customers want to move serious money *out*? Chime's model works because most users treat it like a checking account. The rails matter less until someone tries to wire $50K and hits a 3-day hold.
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Alex Johnson
Alex Johnson@AlexH_Johnson·
@ravi_riley They haven’t but it doesn’t really matter. The experience for the end user is what is most important and Chime takes very little credit risk on the backend. We should still upgrade the rails, of course. But this isn’t an entirely unsolved problem.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
The real question isn't AI vs branches. It's whether community banking can survive as a standalone model — or if the future is either massive scale (to fund AI) or hyper-local focus (where humans still matter). The middle is getting expensive to defend.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
What's striking is the timing. Regional banks are consolidating because they can't afford to build what Citi's building. And Citi's building it because they can't afford to keep staffing every customer interaction the old way. Same pressure, different responses.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
Citi just launched an AI wealth adviser. Banner Bank just bought another community bank for $177M. One story sounds like the future. The other sounds like the past. But they're solving the exact same problem: how to defend margin when your old moat is gone.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
Compare this to the dozens of consumer fintech unicorns that raised $100M+ and are now worth less than their last round. Skio's exit value per dollar raised destroys them. Capital efficiency isn't just a nice-to-have anymore — it's the difference between exiting and unwinding.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
Here's the part nobody talks about: the founder who built initial traction to $10M ARR left 2 years before the exit. The new CEO scaled it to $32M with zero marketing spend. Execution beat mythology. The business model mattered more than the origin story.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
The 13x return ($105M on $8M raised) wasn't about scaling fast. It was about staying close to the problem long enough to solve it right. Capital efficiency isn't just about saving money—it's about preserving judgment. You can't learn at scale.
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The Human In Loop
The Human In Loop@TheHumanInLoop·
This matters for banking too. Most fintechs raise big, hire fast, and burn through CAC before they know what activates customers. The ones that last? They talk to customers obsessively. They stay small until distribution is obvious. Growth comes after, not before, clarity.
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