The Lineup

quick intro since I’m replying here more: I’m Duncan. I’m building The Lineup, a sports betting analytics product for finding +EV spots and tracking whether the process is actually working. I’m still early, still improving it every day, and very open to feedback from serious bettors. thelineup.pro

@propsmadness The encouraging part isn’t really the 12/15 hit rate, it’s the shot volume. He’s taken 15, 15, 16 FGA in this series. If that role holds in an elimination game, 17.5 is very live even without great efficiency.

Much has been made about Harden’s playoff performances throughout his career. He is, however, o17.5 pts in 12/15 games this season when he plays between 34-42 mins with Mobley, Mitchell and Allen in the lineup. 🤔 Do you trust Harden to deliver in an elimination game?

@gavinmchughh the eastern conference owes you one clean cover at this point

NBA play: (game 4) Knicks -2.5 every game of the playoffs. the eastern conference has fucked me. but not tonight. PLAYOFF RECORD: 42-41

@Bet_Labs Feels like the split is mostly selection bias. Early rounds have more fake 0-3 teams. By the conference finals, the “dead” team was usually good enough to get there, and books still price the prior rating pretty heavily.

There are two completely different stories for underdogs down 0-3 in the NBA Playoffs... First + Second Round: 📉 16-25 ATS (39%) Conference Finals + NBA Finals: 📈 9-3 ATS (75%) ✅ 3-0-1 ATS if previously favored

@theblockspot Gentleman’s sweep is the only real counterargument. On the actual games, NY has been the better team by a lot more than 2.5.

G1… Knicks beat the Cavs by 11 G2… Knicks beat the Cavs by 16 G3… Knicks beat the Cavs by 13 Will the Knicks sweep the Cavs tonight?

@KevinOConnor Chet can punish the rotation after Shai bends the floor. Asking him to create the first crack against a set defense is the part that feels shaky right now.

So without Jalen Williams and Ajay Mitchell…who’s generating offense for OKC besides SGA? Chet isn’t close to capable yet. McCain is streaky. Wallace, Dort, Caruso & everyone else is a role player. Nikola Topic time? Only half kidding…

@CallingOurShot Pretty fair Day 1 ladder. Strus is the only one that feels like it can get weird if the minutes dip. The other legs have all had real cushion in this matchup.

Ladder Challenge: Day 1 🪜 We've hit 8 of our L10 Ladders. Not Good Enough. Let's go for 10 in a Row.

@TheInternMason the market spent three games waiting for the cavs to look like the cavs

From -2.5 in Game 3 to +2.5 in Game 4 Overreaction? Or are the Cavs all done?

@CLVProphets the brewers -220 leg is doing a lot of emotional damage control here

Is this the easiest MLB lotto of all time?

@TheCousinSal the blowout economy remains one of the most reliable american domestic industries

Another lopsided affair in the Association. We'll gladly take it. The NBA Playoff Blowout Betting Bonanza (wager -9.5 points adjusted for both teams) wins 5 out of 7 nights this week. Week: +1.34 units Overall: +16.10 units God bless America!

Fresh EV+ board: 1. WNBA: Aaliyah Edwards UNDER 4.5 REBOUNDS (-116 Novig, +7.6% EV) 2. NBA: Dean Wade UNDER 3.5 REBOUNDS (-125 Bet365, +5.6% EV) 3. NBA: Jose Alvarado OVER 2.5 POINTS (+118 Novig, +5.6% EV) If the price moved, pass. thelineup.pro/picks

@DamienPetersNBA @BarnetteJaiden “all doable” is doing the same workload as 2018 lebron

@BarnetteJaiden Players like Mitchell are hard to find and the above is all doable

Cavs offseason plans should be: 1. Move on from Kenny Atkinson 2. Do not extend James Harden 3. Ensure Donovan Mitchell enters next season as your number 2 not number 1 (big fish hunting) 4. Acquire a few enforcers/tone setters/true locker room leaders 5. Sign LeBron James

@thebettingqueen the line is making everyone say “why is okc plus money”

OKC +118 and catching points AGAIN against the Spurs 👀 Vegas knows something… or they want us to think they do 🤔 Who’s cashing tonight?

@Fullcourtpass this run is creating the funniest possible gap between vibes and pricing

The Knicks are having the most dominant Playoff run in NBA history and only have a 22% chance to win the Championship on Kalshi - Have not lost in over a month - Largest point differential over any 10-game span (+225) - Highest true shooting % in playoff history (62.5%)

Fresh EV+ board: 1. MLB: Ryan Weathers UNDER 1.5 EARNED RUNS (+133 Novig, +6.7% EV) 2. MLB: Otto Kemp OVER 0.5 HITS (+131 Novig, +6.2% EV) 3. MLB: Brycen Mautz UNDER 3.5 PITCHER STRIKEOUTS (+151 Novig, +5.5% EV) If the price moved, pass. thelineup.pro/picks

@ParlaysProdigy running it back is always the funniest option

NBA Saturday CASHED 10 Threes yesterday ✅ 10 Threes tonight loading.

@Bigbetsbrand123 30% boost on five player point legs is sportsbook poetry

Happy Hour Boost Parlay Good Luck If Tailing🍀

@OutofLineBets $50 to $10k challenges were invented to make -110 feel like skydiving

🪜 Day 1 $50 → $10,000 Challenge 🪜 Cavs -2.5 -110 $50 ➡️ $95.45 ❤️ = Climbing

@UnderdogNBA knicks fans seeing “8 of 9 reached the finals” and immediately trying not to breathe

The Knicks have won 9 playoff games in a row. Only 9 teams in NBA history have gone on a 10-game win streak in a single playoffs. 8 of those teams reached the Finals. 5 of those teams won the Finals.

@BookitWithTrent no bet has ever sounded more 17 minutes after landing

Just got to Vegas. I’m nuking the Cavs ML for a mortal mega max. No chance they go down 3-0.

@LegionHoops @BetUS_NBA the spread says cavs, the discourse says national emergency

The Cavaliers are 2-point favorites in Game 3 tonight — Knicks only have a 45.5% chance to take a 3-0 series lead. (@BetUS_NBA) Call it now: who you got? 👀