Xavier Lopes

When to trade vs when to go outside

I attended 2 trading conferences where elite traders presented, and will share the top 8 trading lessons with you. 1. The "AI-Era" Survival Triad At the SMB Summit, I shared the three traits required to thrive over the next decade. As AI tools level the playing field, "standard" isn't enough. To be a modern Market Wizard, you must be: a) Adaptable: Markets will move differently as AI scales. b) Curious: You must constantly hunt for what is working now. c) Relentless: You don't stop until you find the setup that fits you. 2. The $500,000 Logic @MaxGanik (8-figure-a-year trader) dropped a truth bomb that captivated the room: "I would rather lose $500k on one A+ setup than lose $50k on ten B- setups." 3. Kill the "World-Class Isolation." @steenbab , the world’s leading trading coach, gave us a reality check: “You cannot achieve world-class performance with world-class isolation.” 4. Find Your "Trading DNA" Jeff Holden, our Head of Trader Development, categorized the three types of successful "predators" on our desk: The Finisher, The Runner, The Player. 5. No Solution, No Exit I had the honor of introducing @TheOneLanceB , a two-time Trader of the Year, @Traders4ACause. His secret to moving from "Top 10" to "#1" was simple but grueling: Never leave the desk before finding a concrete solution for a trading mistake. 6. Become Your Own Risk Manager Our Risk Manager, CBry, is the most popular man in the room during breaks for a reason. His advice: Develop a clear risk plan for every trade—no exceptions. *Set your capital, stops, and targets before the entry. Find an accountability partner to "talk through" the plan in real-time. If you did this, how much would your P&L improve tomorrow? 7. The 10-Hour AI Edge In a Miami hotel lobby, a 7-figure SMB trader told me his secret for hitting 8 figures this year: "Bella, I'm spending 10 hours a day using Claude to improve my productivity." 8. The "Wall Street Warrior" Shock (Funny story) A former trader showed me an IMDb page that shocked me. Remember the young lady who trained with us on the show Wall Street Warriors? He claimed she didn't just learn to trade—she (according to this trader) became a major movie star (think Game of Thrones). *Personally, I am sure it is not true, but it is a funny story and was an actual scene at a charity event in Miami. It begs the question: Does SMB produce elite traders AND move stars? Train well, trade well. #PropTrading #stockmarket #TradingStrategies The Keys to Trading Success (From Real Prop Traders) youtu.be/vthfx0ZFQ6A?si… via @YouTube

@MikeBellafiore ‘s “ONE GOOD TRADE” mentality is broader than the trade, it’s the day, it’s the issue, it’s the one struggle or improvement at a time. It’s the “next” mentality from @InvestorsLive. I’ve never had an issue with alcohol but some of my friends who are in/ been in AA talk about the “making it through today” concept. You don’t need to make it weeks or years, you need to make it through today, then tomorrow you make it through the day. Sound familiar to Mike’s book? “you make one good trade, then… one good trade… then one good trade” To me this is all the same. It works for a reason. Whatever you’re trying to improve whether positive or a debilitating issue, take it one ☝🏽 at a time. You’re not trying to fix it today, you’re simply trying to be better today. Just today, that’s it. You can do that! What’s one issue you’re having in your trading? Make that the goal today. You’re totally capable of being better on that one thing today. You don’t walk a mile in 3 steps, you take it 1 simple easy step at a time, before you know you’re just in a rhythm of progress, putting one foot (improvement) in front of the next. When you get to the mile, you don’t remember each step, only where you started and how far you’ve come to be where you are. Good luck everyone, have a great day and be proud of all your efforts!

Jeff Holden breaks down the 3 types of traders at the SMB Trading Summit: The Finisher. The Runner. The Player. The key is figuring out which one you are.

FEB 2026 @SMBCAPITAL TAKEAWAYS 1. It was universally agreed that February was a slower month versus most of 2025. Traders rightfully pulled back risk considerably. The big distinction to make is that the market has been rangebound. As a result market plays, swing momentum, and similar need to be reduced. Where traders deployed risk was in the opportunities moving idiosyncratic from the market like the crypto and SaaS melt. So so important to recognize when to pullback risk, where to pullback risk, and where to keep swinging the bat. 2. Something happened over the last month where traders are now utilizing Claude and AI at a much higher level than previously seen. It’s becoming more and more apparent that traders who don’t will face a widening gap in knowledge, speed, and productivity. 3. Now with the Iran war in full-swing, gameplanning is coming to the forefront. What could the big headlines be? What would be the first and second order impacts of those headlines? Traders that didn’t have futures access during gold and silver learned their lesson the hard way, but hopefully now are prepared for the extra market access for crude and nat gas which futures provides. 4. Despite the slowdown, traders interestingly weren’t struggling like many did in late 2025. Many have moved to shorter timeframe scalps, hitting singles, and increased selectivity. Off to NYC for the @smbcapital conference this weekend ✈️🙏

During a monthly meeting, a trader was doing a really good job of beating himself up. Shark- soon to be highlighted in the next Market Wizard, stopped him: "Dr. Steenbarger's book (Positive Trading Psychology) would be good for you to read so you can pull on your strengths more than beat yourself up on what you did wrong." The lesson? "Think about what you did right and how you do more of it... biggest winners and how could you have made more there and not just eliminate what you did wrong." 📈 #TradingPsychology #StockMarket #DayTrading

WHEN SHOULD YOU INCREASE YOUR DAILY RISK? Risk should be earned, not rushed. Increase it only after consistent performance, no outsized losses, and strong monthly PNL that proves your edge is real. Scale gradually, use your data as proof, and never size up so fast that it affects your decision-making. Full video @ theonelanceb.com

@Minato_MMXM Wow doesn’t look like tradezela at all

After months of building… we finally decided this. We’re giving the Gameify Trade Journal software FREE to all traders. Like, Retweet and Comment “Trade Journal” I’ll send it to you. Make sure you follow me so I can directly DM you.

JAN '26 @SMBCAPITAL TAKEAWAYS 1. Bella beat me to the punch. His post describes the main theme of our monthly review calls for January. In my opinion, the metals panned out in a way that was spectacularly difficult to trade. Between the constant reclaims, the overnight cracks, and the extended-but-not-capitulatory legs... The point he wrote up below he made on the call and it's so important. There is nothing more powerful than a process-focused mindset that obsesses not with where you are now, but with where you will be in the future assuming a consistent level of hard work and high standards. 2. I, quite frankly, was impressed by the traders this month. I thought January was insanely difficult with tons of places to get wrecked. The SMB traders performed well, even though in the prior months that I thought were far easier, they underperformed. Those that did well in the metals did so bc of this: Many used options to structure their trades with max risk while giving them time for the position to work (as described in this interview with Shark - youtube.com/watch?v=bkwY7m…). Additionally, many traders equated the topping process in the metals to the move in the quantum names. The doji reclaim on 1/29 didn't scare them out of the trade and then as we cracked the next day, they were aggressively adding rather than taking off. 3. One trader expressed his frustration at being underpositioned when the move in silver finally cracked. He noted that he was losing hope and his mounting losses led him to raise the white flag. This is 100% NORMAL HUMAN NATURE!!! Everyone feels this way and that is why most often miss the move or then take profits on it far too fast once it does crack. With experience, we come to recognize these emotions but more objectively assess them and eventually use this as an indicator. Often those moves crack once everyone has given up because finally the last marginal buyer (covers) has capitulated. Then once that downmove starts to gain momentum, everyone is not positioned so they must add add add and chase lower. There absolutely is nuance to know when to give up because you are wrong versus when to know when to press despite your basic psychology wanting to give up. It takes experience, it takes objectivity, and it also helps to have a trading pod to check in against. 4. Traders are focusing more move-to-move rather than stubbornly obsessing with a big picture. The more volatile moves become, the more you are safest catching the first next leg in front of you. Bella has been harping for months about the traders shifting towards move-to-move trading rather than big picture styles like momentum swings. This was really good coaching from Bella. As we are now far away from a momentum long market, the best traders have already adapted. If you haven't adapted, it is worth recognizing that the current market is NOT the same one we were in 1-2 months ago.

Trading is a bit of a paradox. The harder you PUSH, the further success runs from you. Learning to enter flow state.. trading with the market, instead of against it.. can be the greatest edge. Stop getting angry over failed trades. Stop betting on certainty. Start to learn to roll with the punches.

@jadecap_ Lmao

Seems a tad bit racist no?

During SMB monthly reviews many traders expressed disappointment that they did not perform better in the Silver and Gold opportunities. They made money but they lamented they should have made more. Perhaps many of you feel the same. What I am going to say next I hope changes how you look at last month's trading experience. The PnL you "missed" in Gold and Silver doesn't matter. What really matters is that you gained 6 career-altering experiences: 1) Commodity Mastery: You moved beyond equities. 2) Deep Analysis: You performed extensive reviews of "A+" setups. 3) Collaboration: You leaned on your trading teammates to navigate the historic opportunity. 4) PlayBook Expansion: Now you have added commodities to your quiver. 5) Risk Control: You survived and managed a historically volatile move. 6) Tech Growth: You built the tools to capture more next time. The profit wasn't the point. The experience was. You are now a better trader! From my seat, for those who keep learning, pushing, and gain experience that ten thousand you left on the table will become 100k one day. That 100k you left on the table will become 1m. That 1m you just missed capturing will become 10m. The market will pay you for the trader you become. It is not how good you were last month. It is how good you will be. The lessons compound. There is always a next big opportunity. The real reward is just getting better. Train and trade well. Bella #TradingPsychology #Gold #Silver #SMBTraining #DayTrading #PropTrading

@omor214 cyberbullying 😂😂😂

I nearly spat my food out. Decrease rates and USD goes up? Who is paying to learn from you?🤣. You have the nerve to call me a retard? Where did you learn your macroeconomics from? I used to tutor 17 yr old kids smarter than this.

@omor214 They took my SL on my eval accounts that’s what made the market go higher 🤣

@TheNastrader just in time to full send FOMC speech

Tradovate crashed before FOMC. Divine risk management.

Time to profitability for even top Market Wizards:

Lance Breitstein on what actually creates trading success: "Most traders think the next book, podcast, or strategy will unlock success — but more information is not the answer. What separates elite traders is doing the real work: collecting thousands of annotated charts, developing a playbook, running backtests, and focusing relentlessly on execution. Deep work beats content consumption every single time."

No entries for my model today , know when to step away. Right now any trade that I take would be lower EV since the NQ expansion already happened