Marcus Fahey

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Marcus Fahey

Marcus Fahey

@TheMarcusFahey

$FNMA | $XLE | $TSLA | $NVDA | $GOOGL | $TSM | $MSFT | $MU | $QTUM | $IONQ | $XOM | $CVX | $LITE | *Not financial advice*

Katılım Mart 2023
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Marcus Fahey
Marcus Fahey@TheMarcusFahey·
Thank you, @BillAckman! The Fannie Mae conservatorship makes you question the America we are living in.
Bill Ackman@BillAckman

A number of press reports have characterized our and other shareholders’ efforts on behalf of Fannie and Freddie (F2) as seeking a ‘gift’ or ‘handout’ from the government. We, the shareholders of F2, seek no such thing. Hundreds of financial institutions were bailed out during the GFC by the U.S. Treasury. Nearly all of the financial institution bailouts during the GFC involved an injection of capital in the form of senior preferred stock by Treasury at an interest rate of 5%, plus warrants to acquire common stock in an amount equal to 15% of the face amount of the preferred with an exercise price at the then-current stock price of the rescued institution. For example, Treasury’s preferred stock investment in Goldman Sachs was in an amount of $10 billion and, in addition, Treasury received warrants on $1.5 billion of GS' common stock at its then market price. The bailout terms for F2 were materially more burdensome and expensive, with a higher interest rate and substantially more warrant coverage, than that of every other financial institution (other than those of AIG whose terms were similar). Despite the F2 bailouts’ massively more burdensome terms, shareholders are not complaining about the original terms. Treasury invested $193 billion in F2 in the form of senior preferred stock (SPS), including funding for $2 billion of commitment fees, with a 10% coupon (twice that of the banks). Treasury also received warrants on 79.9% of both companies’ outstanding shares. Fannie and Freddie have since repaid Treasury $301 billion, which includes interest on the SPS at a blended rate of 11.6%, an interest rate which is 160 basis points more per annum, and have returned the entire $193 billion of outstanding principal, $25 billion in excess of what was contractually owed. In summary, the F2 SPS has been fully repaid according to its original contractual terms plus an extra $25 billion. Despite the fact that the SPS has been more than repaid in full, Fannie and Freddie have not accounted for these payments on their respective balance sheets, and the $193 billion of SPS remains an outstanding liability as if no principal payments had ever been made. How can it be, you might ask, if indeed F2 have repaid $301 billion to Treasury when only $276 billion was due could there be any remaining balance of the SPS on the F2 balance sheets? The answer relates to something called the ‘Net Worth Sweep (NWS).’ During the second term of the Obama administration, on August 12, 2012, two quarters after F2 returned to profitability, Treasury announced that it was unilaterally amending the terms of the SPS stock to provide that Treasury would take 100% of the profits of F2 each quarter in lieu of the 10% annual dividend rate. This was not a negotiated resolution with F2. It was a unilateral amendment of the original terms of the SPS that was done in bad faith. The supposed rationale for the amended terms of the SPS was akin to the IRS garnishing the wages of someone who will never be able to pay the taxes that they owe. That is, the Treasury said F2 will never be able to pay the 10% coupon, let alone the SPS’ $193 billion principal balance, so it decided instead to ‘settle’ for 100% of F2’s profits forever. In discovery, shareholders learned that the stated justification for the amendment was false. In mid 2012, the Obama administration had come to learn that both companies would soon be reversing tens of billions of reserves on their balance sheets as housing values had increased and the reserves taken during the GFC had been excessive. The NWS was instituted by Obama to forestall F2 from forever being able to recapitalize and be released from conservatorship. The NWS was not a ‘settlement’ for a lesser amount of future payments. It was the outright theft of the forever profits of both companies. Never before or since has the government ‘swept’ 100% of the profits of any company, let alone a financial institution in conservatorship, a form of government intervention where the goal is rehabilitation of the institution, and where the hierarchy of corporate claims has always been respected. The accounting for the NWS payments while it was in effect (until Secretary Mnuchin terminated the NWS in Trump’s first term) was also unusual. The NWS was treated by F2 as a quarterly adjustment to the dividend rate on the SPS such that the dividend amount owed was made equal to the after-tax profits of F2 for that quarter with no limitation. In other words, regardless of the amount of profit F2 generated for the quarter – whether or not it was in excess of the original 10% annual dividend – the dividend payable under the NWS was made equal to the quarterly profit. The absurd terms of the NWS sweep therefore made it impossible for any partial or full repayment of the SPS to take place as every dollar paid to the Treasury on the amended terms of the SPS was considered a dividend payment, even if the amount was massively in excess of the original contractual SPS terms. The absurdity of the NWS was made clear just two quarters after the NWS went into effect. Fannie Mae generated a profit of $59 billion in the first quarter of 2013, and the SPS dividend rate for that quarter was set at $59 billion so the entire amount was swept to the government, more than 10 times the contractual dividend rate. I had the opportunity to discuss F2 and the NWS with Warren Buffett about a decade ago and he said that he “couldn’t believe what the government had done.” In short, the shareholders of F2 are simply asking the government to respect the original and highly burdensome terms of the SPS. There is no dispute that Treasury has received more than the original 10% coupon and full repayment of principal of the SPS, that is, an extra $25 billion. We and the millions of other shareholders of F2 are simply asking the administration to honor the original SPS terms and properly account for the $301 billion of payments, thereby eliminating the SPS liability from both companies’ balance sheets. Shareholders have not asked for the extra $25 billion to be returned to the two companies. Treasury can decide whether to keep those funds or return them to the companies. Accounting for the repayment of the SPS has other important implications. Namely, it is critically important that conservatorships respect the rule of law, in particular, the contractual terms of corporate instruments and the hierarchy of claims. Otherwise, no financial institution that gets into trouble will be able to raise rescue capital in the private markets. Notably, the treatment of F2 in conservatorship explains why Silicon Valley Bank and other recent large bank failures since the GFC were unable to raise private capital and avoid government intervention or a forced sale to J.P. Morgan. If the government with the stroke of a pen during conservatorship can at a whim wipe out common and preferred shareholders, no one is going to step in to try to save a financial institution that gets into trouble, and only the top few banks will be possible rescuers of big banks that fail. Furthermore, because of F2’s history, their reputation in the capital markets has been greatly damaged. F2 raised $22 billion of preferred stock in the year or so prior to conservatorship as the government pressed both companies to raise capital. Institutions were willing to invest billions of dollars of capital into both institutions before they failed because, based on all precedent conservatorships, the contractual terms of all financial instruments and the hierarchy of claims had been preserved. Unfortunately, in light of the precedent of the net worth sweep, no investor can be confident that they won’t be wiped out in a future conservatorship so none has been willing to take the risk. Some have proposed that Treasury simply convert the SPS into junior preferred and common stock and massively dilute shareholders. Putting aside the potential legal challenges to this approach, the result will be that Treasury will at best own something approaching 95% of both companies rather than 79.9%. While the government’s percentage ownership stake would be larger in the SPS conversion approach, the value of the government’s larger stake would be considerably lower as the companies would become un-investable. Who would invest in F2 alongside the government when they just wiped out the previous owners? In the SPS conversion scenario, the government’s stake, at best, if it could be sold, would trade at a massively discounted valuation, well below the value of the government's stake if Treasury retained only its contracted for 79.9% stake and respected the original terms of the SPS. In other words, a slightly smaller ownership stake of much more highly valued companies would equate to considerably more value for Treasury and taxpayers. In a public letter to Rand Paul after his first term in November of 2021, President Trump recognized that the net worth sweep was theft from the shareholders of Fannie and Freddie. He wrote: “Another Obama/Biden scam in legal trouble was when they allowed the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) to steal the retirement savings of hardworking Americans who had invested in Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac…The idea that the government can steal money from its citizens is socialism and is a travesty brought to you by the Obama/Biden administration. My Administration was denied the time it needed to fix this problem because of the unconstitutional restriction on firing Mel Watt. It has to come to an end and courts must protect our citizens.” I couldn’t have said it better than President Trump. Now that you have the time, Mr. President, let’s Stop the Steal!

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Dear Son.
Dear Son.@DearS_o_n·
Man to man: If you’re feeling lost, go back to what you loved as a kid. It usually leads you back to yourself.
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Goshawk Trades
Goshawk Trades@GoshawkTrades·
Jane Street's head of technology just explained the full spectrum of how fast their trading decisions are made. the fastest systems turn around a packet in under 100 nanoseconds. at that speed, if you attached an oscilloscope to the wire going in and the wire going out, you'd see the response start to leave before the incoming packet has finished arriving. at that speed, you can't use a CPU. you can't use any programming language. you're on an FPGA direct wired to the network. and the decisions you're making are incredibly simple. because you literally can't compute anything complex in that time. but here's the part most people miss: that's just one end of the spectrum. Jane Street runs an ensemble of systems operating at every timescale simultaneously. some decisions happen in nanoseconds. some in microseconds. some in milliseconds. some take hours or a full day. "the right way to build an optimal trading strategy is an ensemble approach. for some decisions you're making very simple decisions very quickly. for others, you're operating at the scale of microseconds, milliseconds. and in some cases, if you can get that decision turned around in an hour, that's totally fine." the faster you need to respond, the simpler the decision has to be. the slower you can afford to go, the smarter the model can be. this is why "Jane Street is just a speed game" is wrong. speed is one dimension. intelligence is the other.
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Kalshi
Kalshi@Kalshi·
JUST IN: Hedge funds increased short positions to "highest level" in 10 years
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Mario Nawfal
Mario Nawfal@MarioNawfal·
🚨 BREAKING: 🇺🇸 The House Energy and Commerce Committee just voted 48-1 to advance The Sunshine Protection Act, which would make Daylight Saving Time permanent. Key details: -Bill will be attached to the broader Highway Bill in the House -48-1 vote signals overwhelming bipartisan support Trump publicly thanked Chairman Brett Guthrie and Rep. Vern Buchanan -Trump says hundreds of millions of dollars are wasted annually on clock changes including tower clocks requiring heavy equipment -His framing: "Saving Daylight gives you a longer, brighter Day — And who can be against that" -Trump has called it "a very nice WIN for the Republican Party" Saying goodbye to the twice-yearly clock change has been a rare bipartisan dream for years. Florida Sen. Marco Rubio pushed the same bill through the Senate by unanimous consent in 2022 before it died in the House. The clock-change tradition dates back to WWI as a wartime energy-saving measure. America may finally be done with it.
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Sal the Agorist
Sal the Agorist@SallyMayweather·
If Russia spent $30M to unseat a congressman we’d never hear the end of it.
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Race
Race@multiplanet1·
Elon Musk's first wife once described what it's like to watch him fail. She said he doesn't react the way normal people react. When a rocket explodes, most people in the room go silent. Some cry. Some start calculating the financial damage. Musk pulls out his phone and starts making calls. Not emotional calls. Engineering calls. "What failed. When can we fix it. When's the next launch." His voice doesn't change. His face doesn't change. The rocket that just cost $60 million is already in the past. The next one is all that exists. She said it was the most unsettling thing she'd ever witnessed. Not because he was cold. Because he genuinely wasn't affected. The failure didn't register as failure. It registered as data. An experiment that produced results. Results that inform the next experiment. This is why he wins. Not because he doesn't fail. He fails more spectacularly than anyone in history. He wins because failure occupies zero psychological space. It enters as data and exits as action. Most people lose not because they fail but because they spend weeks processing the failure before acting again. Musk spends zero seconds. The gap between failure and next attempt is a phone call.
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Shay Boloor
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay·
Jeff Bezos said he doesn’t know if SpaceX is worth $1.75T or $2T but has no doubt space will become a “gigantic industry.” Entire businesses will be built on top of the backbone SpaceX is creating.
Shay Boloor@StockSavvyShay

Jeff Bezos said the bottom half of Americans should pay zero federal income tax. He cited a nurse in Queens making ~$75K and paying ~$12K in taxes saying “we shouldn’t be asking this nurse in Queens to send money to Washington.”

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Financelot
Financelot@FinanceLancelot·
Rumor is the U.S. is about to make a move on Cuba after Elon Musk's SpaceX IPO on June 12th The USS Nimitz quickly en route to Cuba, joining the Iwo Jima. The USS Dwight D Eisenhower is also positioning itself off the coast of Florida. This makes sense from a technical perspective because the oil charts predicting a drop, while the stock market setup looks extremely similar to the volatility spike of July 2024.
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Marcus Fahey
Marcus Fahey@TheMarcusFahey·
Should’ve asked him about F2, James! @hardknocksedu
The School of Hard Knocks@hardknocksedu

The $11 BILLION MAN! He rejected me 3 months ago, but I finally interviewed @BillAckman, one of the greatest investors of all time. I interviewed him in Beverly Hills, and I asked him how he got RICH and his best investment advice for people in business. I also asked him the best industry people should be looking to get into in today’s world, and his number one networking tip for people starting out. Lastly, I asked him for the best advice he’d give the younger generation.

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Frankie Stockes
Frankie Stockes@realStockes·
Benjamin Netanyahu’s expected successor, Naftali Bennett, bragged to a jewish TV host that he was in New York City on 9/11 and it’ll happen again if the US doesn’t do Israel’s bidding in the Middle East. “We know what will happen. The twin towers. 9/11.”
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Marcus Fahey
Marcus Fahey@TheMarcusFahey·
@Snarkytrashpan2 This was considered so old, about 6 months ago. The time for rhetoric has been LONG over with.
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Snarkytrashpanda
Snarkytrashpanda@Snarkytrashpan2·
Ugh We've been hearing this whole will they won't they for the past year
Hand of God@TylerEHand

@cvpayne is going to visit Washington very soon and hopes to, "Break that Fannie Mae news together, wink, wink," with @pulte : $FNMA $FMCC strong.

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AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲
AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲@TeslaBoomerMama·
🚀 SpaceX - merger? Before analyzing the Prospectus, I start with the Certificate of Formation and the Bylaws of SpaceX. And here the first interesting tit-bit: Any merger, sale of the company, or “Combination Transaction” requires TWO separate votes: 1) The normal shareholder vote (Class B shares get 10 votes each) 2) A separate Class B-only vote This dual-vote requirement is not required by Texas law — SpaceX chose to put it in the Certificate of Formation. It is stronger protection than most dual-class companies have and protects against the risk that Elon could lose control of the company in a merger or sale, even though he owns the super-voting shares. Without the separate Class B vote, here is the theoretical risk: Over time, Class A shares (the ones sold to the public) become a bigger portion of the company. A group of large Class A shareholders (or a buyer) could team up and approve a merger that Elon opposes. That merger could dilute or eliminate Elon’s control, force the company to change direction, or hand the keys to someone else. The separate Class B vote kills that risk completely. It guarantees that no merger can happen unless Elon (or his permitted successors) explicitly says yes. This is exactly why founders like Elon put this kind of language in the documents — to keep long-term control no matter how many public shares are sold. They locked this is, and I am here for it. A founder of the caliber of Elon deserves protection in any possible way.🚀 SpaceX Certificate of Formation, Article VI, Section 5(d) sec.gov/Archives/edgar…
AleXandra Merz 🇺🇲 tweet media
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