An interesting phenomenon where no individual can consistently beat a Wordle bot, but a randomly selected group beats it nearly every time...
I always wondered how Wordle strategy might change based on optimizing for speed vs. fewest guesses vs. probability of getting the word at all.
What's interesting is that the bot's second guess is often logically ruled out after its first guess, i.e. guessing the word 'anger' even though there's a confirmed 'L' in the word.
Individuals rarely do this, almost always guessing words that could theoretically be correct at every stage, which is sub-optimal in a vacuum but in aggregate ends up beating the bot's optimal strategy.
rajivsethi.substack.com/p/wordle-and-t…
@KSRonX@DrewFranklinKSR Fun nostalgic fact: Nike made t-shirts for the team immediately following the 54-point night to celebrate it, but Gillespie wouldn’t let the team wear a t-shirt that celebrated just one players performance
Week 4 notes:
5/17 teams have no injuries
Largest injury exposure:
17.6% James Conner
17.6% Aaron Jones
64.7% of teams have either Lamar Jackson or Jalen Hurts
52.9% of teams have Jonathan Taylor
@Underdog UD The Eliminator recap:
Season: 17/50 advance 34% (beating the 12.5% expected)
Week 3: 17/25 advance 68% (beating the 50% expected)
Worst advancing team: 96.82
Best eliminated team: 128.54
Luck factor: 0 (17 teams above median score of 114.17)
@AlanWare I had 42 teams advance.
43 of 50 teams with at least 1 of those QBs
37 of 43 with those QBs advanced (86%)
5 of 7 w/o them advanced (71%)
So it def helped but I thought that difference would be higher.
Luck plays a much bigger factor going forward, hope it falls in your favor!
@TheOnlyMrSmith It is interesting 33/50 teams had Allen, Lamar, Hurts, Daniels or Fields and I advanced 31 teams. Those probably aren’t all 31 teams but pretty close correlation.
Advanced 42/50 (84%) in The Eliminator on UnderDog UD. Was the one Best Ball contest format that seemed to have edge from the community not playing it correctly. Shout out to my only team that finished last, too many Dolphins
@AlanWare I also did 50. 82% of my teams having Hurts, Daniels, Lamar, or J Allen at QB boded well. The strategy was for the rushing floor but had good luck in week 1 with each of them. Having a higher number of 2 qb builds might bite me as the season goes on though.
@AlanWare I’m curious what your exposure was. I also emphasized running QBs due to their high floor week-to-week and they all hit in Week 1. And then my late round cheap WRs hit too in week 1, I went quantity over quality at WR
@AlanWare Over drafting rookies and suspended players
Not putting an emphasis on week 1 (which requires the least amount of luck)
Playing a zero rb build
Not doing unique builds to normal best ball formats, like 4 (good) rb’s
Not focusing on early season schedules
@AdamSchefter Surprised Vele not mentioned as starter. @AllbrightNFL what 3 WRs do you think begin the year and what 3 finish year as starters in 3 WR sets for Denver?
. @KySportsRadio explains UK’s decision to turn its athletic department into an LLC.
“Mitch Barnhart, Mark Pope, Mark Stoops. They are now employees of this LLC.”
📺: youtu.be/CX92flz-K5M?si…
@Alreed2095@AllbrightNFL Edward of England.
If he showed a pic of the pascal pyramid instead of triangle and didn’t talk on radio about not going WR this early I’d have bet it
@AllbrightNFL Could be overthinking. Jermaine Jackson pascal pyramid. Jimmy Johnson drove the 48. King Edward died place of plantacia. All alliteration. Most common alliteration in draft Emeka Egbuka. Hampton seems to easy with Charlotte pic.