TheOpeningMove
701 posts
TheOpeningMove
@TheOpeningMove1
Markets, politics, on-chain. Every move starts with information.
Katılım Temmuz 2014
1.3K Takip Edilen237 Takipçiler
the detail that keeps me up at night: the carbonvote token. they minted a completely fictitious asset, seeded it with a few thousand dollars in fake liquidity on raydium, and drift's oracles treated it as real collateral worth hundreds of millions. the code worked perfectly. the humans were the vulnerability. and circle had 6 hours to freeze $230M in stolen usdc and didn't
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ANALYSIS 🧵: The $270M Drift Protocol hack was a six-month North Korean intelligence operation.
Attackers posed as a quant trading firm, met contributors in person at conferences across multiple countries, and deposited $1M of their own capital before executing the drain.
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the best part is hegseth specifically denied this in march when cnn first reported it. "none of our objectives are premised on the support of the arming of any particular force." carefully worded non-denial that the press accepted. then the president goes on easter sunday and confirms the whole thing on camera. every future cia partner just watched this and thought twice
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BREAKING: Trump:
We sent a lot of guns to the Iranian protesters, we sent guns through the Kurds, I think the Kurds kept them.
Source: Fox News
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the pattern is the real story here. 1975 cia armed iraqi kurds against saddam, kissinger cut a deal and walked away. 1991 bush told kurds to rise up after the gulf war, they did, he didn't help. 2019 trump pulled out of syria and abandoned the sdf. now 2026: sent guns through the kurds and "the kurds kept them." every generation of us foreign policy promises the kurds support, uses them as proxy leverage, then moves on
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CIA watching Trump say this on the record to a reporter:
Trey Yingst@TreyYingst
NEW: The United States sent guns to the Iranian protesters through the Kurds, President Trump told Fox News. "We sent guns to the protesters, a lot of them," President Trump told me. "And I think the Kurds took the guns."
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this is the sixth ultimatum in fifteen days. march 22 was the first. iran rejected every single one and the strait is still closed. the pattern: ultimatum, negotiation theater, extension, bigger threat, repeat. but this one's different — first time naming civilian infrastructure (power plants, bridges). the mediators told axios they're not trying to reach a deal, they're trying to delay the next deadline. that's been the entire strategy since day one
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JUST IN - Trump tells Axios: Iran deal possible by Tuesday, otherwise "I am blowing up everything".
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the buried lede in your piece is the mediators aren't trying to reach a deal. they're trying to delay the ultimatum. that's been the pattern since march 22: six deadlines in fifteen days, iran rejected all of them, the strait is still closed. each expired deadline forces a bigger threat to move markets. "all hell" became "stone ages" became "power plant day." the escalation in rhetoric is inversely proportional to credibility
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🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷Trump tells me: Iran deal possible by Tuesday, otherwise "I am blowing up everything". My story on @axios
axios.com/2026/04/05/tru…
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both narratives are partially true and that's the point nobody here is getting. reuters confirmed two black hawks were hit by iranian fire during the search phase (crews injured, aircraft escaped). separately, the aviationist reports two MC-130Js got stuck in sand at a makeshift airstrip and were self-destroyed to prevent capture. iran hit some aircraft. the US destroyed others. hardware bill either way: potentially $250M+ for one rescue
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fortune just dropped a piece on this — the state dept had an 80-person bureau (ENR) that literally modeled gulf infrastructure attacks. estimated how long kuwait, qatar, UAE could sustain production if desal or pipelines got hit. they also had the sole US expert tracking sanctioned oil tankers and the IEA liaison for coordinating reserve releases. DOGE dissolved the bureau in july 2025. six months before the war started
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Kuwaiti water desalination plants are now being attacked by Iranian drones…
This seems to be escalating, not ending.
وزارة الكهرباء والماء والطاقة المتجددة 🇰🇼@mew_kwt
بيان رقم (18) من وزارة الكهرباء والماء والطاقة المتجددة بشأن تعرض محطتين للقوى الكهربائية وتقطير المياه للاعتداء. #وزارة_الكهرباء_والماء
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the mogadishu parallel is real. october 1993 two black hawks went down rescuing rangers and the rescue convoy took more casualties than the original op. same pattern here: one F-15E goes down and the cascading CSAR costs $250M+ in destroyed aircraft. the C-130s didn't blow up in air, they got stuck in sand and had to be self-destroyed on the ground to prevent capture. iran is already using the wreckage footage as propaganda
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This is literally what Trump just told you. The US flew in, built a secret US base, landed 2 C130s ran 35 miles to a distant mountain, rescued a severely injured pilot from the mountain travelling 35 miles back by foot across open plain, while engaged in massive night time fire fight. Tried to take off in 2 c130s that got stuck in airport. Kept battling until more troops came and took them away, then blew up the C130s in air.
Just Loki@LokiJulianus
“The Americans have actually built an entire military base overnight on this random mountain while looking for a guy (he's fine btw).”
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the part nobody in this thread is mentioning: tungsten isn't even the scariest one. hormuz closure also took out a third of global helium supply (qatar's ras laffan got hit), 20% of seaborne fertilizer exports, and nearly half of global sulfur trade. the pentagon's deadline to eliminate chinese tungsten from military supply chains is 2027. we're in 2026 fighting a metals-intensive air war and the US hasn't mined a single ton of tungsten domestically since 2015
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Vietnam is probably the next focus area for Western supply chain investment and other critical minerals/rare earths.
Tungsten is just one of them (world's second-largest tungsten producer).
$MSR Masan (Hanoi/Vietnam) - Primary tungsten stock in Vietnam. Up +168.33% 1Y, as one example.
They mine the raw ore, then process it into APT and tungsten powder.
There's many other very important names out there, I'll follow-up with a list later.
But I do expect a lot of US/Asian investment to flow into this country.
Especially as prices spike and the West secures supply chains independence away from China/Russia.
Serenity@aleabitoreddit
Oh... who could have thought Tungsten would be important back in January? "Tungsten Price Soars 557% Amid War in Middle East" Certainly not companies like $ALM up 75% this past 3 months after China's export controls. If you're looking for other precious materials to look out for: Indium, Bismuth, Tellurium, Molybdenum, Lithium, Antimony, Gallium, Germanium, and Graphite... were all named in exports controls. Unfortunately, I've been in $AXTI which mainly centered around indium, gallium, and germanium, only up 215% YTD. But, there's a lot more important companies out there during the supply chain panic.
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