PlanZero

🌾 A Ceasefire Won’t Feed You: The Strait of Hormuz Fertiliser Crisis • One third of all globally traded fertiliser transits the Strait of Hormuz, and just 21 tankers have made the crossing since 28 February: urea at the US Gulf hub has surged 35% to above $800 per ton in the weeks since the blockade, hitting farmers right as spring planting begins across the Northern Hemisphere. • Unlike oil, no G7 country holds a strategic fertiliser reserve, and QatarEnergy has halted urea production entirely after invoking force majeure: when this supply stops, there is no emergency stockpile to draw on, and ship captains brave enough to run the strait carry oil before fertiliser because it is worth more per ton. • Even if the strait reopens fully under this two-week ceasefire, over 1,000 vessels are backlogged, insurance premiums are up 300%, and restarting mothballed chemical plants takes weeks of recommissioning: the logistics crisis begins when the shooting stops. • The US faces a projected two-million-ton urea shortfall this spring, Australia’s stocks could run dry by mid-April, and Brazil cannot fill 30% of its phosphate needs: fertiliser decisions made in the next few weeks determine whether autumn harvests come in full or short. Related tickers: $CF — CF Industries (largest US nitrogen fertiliser producer) $NTR — Nutrien (world’s largest fertiliser company) $MOS — Mosaic Company (major phosphate and potash producer) $OCI — OCI Global (nitrogen producer, significant Middle East exposure) $IPL — Incitec Pivot (Australian fertiliser, direct Hormuz exposure) $IPI — Intrepid Potash (US potash producer) $UAN — CVR Partners (US nitrogen fertiliser) $YARA — Yara International (European nitrogen giant) $DBA — Invesco DB Agriculture Fund (broad agriculture ETF) $WEAT — Teucrium Wheat Fund (wheat price proxy) $CORN — Teucrium Corn Fund (corn price proxy) $MOO — VanEck Agribusiness ETF (agribusiness basket) $ADM — Archer-Daniels-Midland (grain trading, downstream impact) $BG — Bunge Global (grain trading, fertiliser distribution) $DE — Deere & Co (farm equipment, planting season bellwether) $ZIM — ZIM Integrated Shipping (container shipping, Gulf exposure) $HAFNI — Hafnia (product tanker, Gulf routes) $STNG — Scorpio Tankers (product tankers)

“Water, soil, and oxygen should not be infinitely accessible. They are assets that should be included in global economic balance sheets.” This is not satire. The World Economic Forum wants to monetise breathing.

Happy Good Friday and may God bless you all, my brother and sisters ✝️