The Small Pond

496 posts

The Small Pond

The Small Pond

@TheSmallPond_

Small and microcaps. No Buffet quotes. Only tweet when I have something to say. Not investment advice

Katılım Ocak 2024
168 Takip Edilen552 Takipçiler
The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
$WOLF ripping another +16% today on no news. Lots of ppl might disregard this stock as it just emerged from bankruptcy and has an EV past. But there’s been rumours TSMC could adopt 300mm SiC wafers for interposers, which WOLF has (SiC is a hard/complicated material so wafers were historically 200mm). -> 800V DCs incorporating more SiC content could be a 2nd catalyst. Highly speculative.
The Small Pond tweet media
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_

$WOLF +55% in 5 days. They announced the 300 mm SiC wafer 2 months ago but only now the market is starting to realise that this might be instrumental in $TSM transition to SiC interposers. There is more signs across the supply chain that suggest TSMC will eventually make this move. Not sure if $WOLF will ultimately become a supplier to TSMC, $COHR is also making progress in 300mm SiC, but $WOLF is the only stock with 100% SiC exposure. This a highly speculative bet as SiC interposers at commercial scale are still years away and $WOLF still has negative gross margins, but the news flow recently seems very positive and in this environment everything is ripping very early. They also refinanced a big chunk of expensive debt. Will the stock start climbing a wall of worry? We will see. Looks good for a small speculative position. @jukan05 has a nice post about SiC interposers in his old blog.

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Max longing $AMZN is starting to look more obvious to me. $MSFT has outperformed $AMZN for the last 5 years and the tables have turned in the last 6-months. Claude is eating OpenAI’s lunch and Amazon is going to be the greatest beneficiary. Aside from that they don’t have a software biz where AI is actually a headwind.
The Small Pond tweet mediaThe Small Pond tweet mediaThe Small Pond tweet media
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
It’s wild to me that no one ever mentions that $STM has a 300mm PIC100 line
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
$WOLF +55% in 5 days. They announced the 300 mm SiC wafer 2 months ago but only now the market is starting to realise that this might be instrumental in $TSM transition to SiC interposers. There is more signs across the supply chain that suggest TSMC will eventually make this move. Not sure if $WOLF will ultimately become a supplier to TSMC, $COHR is also making progress in 300mm SiC, but $WOLF is the only stock with 100% SiC exposure. This a highly speculative bet as SiC interposers at commercial scale are still years away and $WOLF still has negative gross margins, but the news flow recently seems very positive and in this environment everything is ripping very early. They also refinanced a big chunk of expensive debt. Will the stock start climbing a wall of worry? We will see. Looks good for a small speculative position. @jukan05 has a nice post about SiC interposers in his old blog.
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Adding more Zhen Ding after the news today $4958.tw digitimes.com/news/a20260408…
Zephyr@zephyr_z9

This is pretty big news, if true If 30% of Rubin Ultra transitions to CoWoP, then it explains why TSMC hasn't expanded CoWoS capacity too aggressively despite the demand. "CoWoP could enter trial production as early as the Rubin platform, while the market expects late-2027/2028. The architecture places an mSAP PCB on top of two independent 7-layer HDI boards (using M9Q glass-based CCL), with the three boards connected via copper paste lamination technology. We see Zhen Ding as one of the leaders in CoWoP; its CoWoP solution has already been sent to OSATs for chip-level testing. We estimate CoWoP costs ~US$600 per GPU versus ~US$200 for a GB200 compute tray."

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
$EOS.AX the visit of German Defense Minister Pistorius 🇩🇪 on March 27th has not been properly dissected because lots of info was only reported in German media. 1. (Taggesspiegel) EOS laser offer was for 10 Apollo 100kW systems = €380m / $444m / AUD 630m. I don’t believe this number has been reported anywhere else. This would 2x EOS current backlog. CEO Andreas Schwer also pitched Atlas (anti-satellite) and seems there were lots of informal discussions around space collaboration and capabilities between Germany and Australia. 2. Taggesspiegel also mentions Pistorious highlighted many times the importance of diversifying partners, supply chains and “not putting all our eggs in one basket”. 3. Below is a picture of Schwer with Pistorius with a R800 RWS (no-laser). R800 is EOS latest heavy-RWS just being introduced in 2026. I imagine there was a live demo. Reminder that EOS has partnerships with franco-german firm KNDS + Diehl. Two days before Pistorius visit to Canberra, the EU and Australia signed a Security and Defense Partnership 🇪🇺🇦🇺. This doesn’t look too big tbh, just a declaration of good intentions, but EU-Australia relationship is getting better which can only be good for business and cooperation. All this ofc excludes other large opportunities like the 3000 R150 RWS to Germany that could reach €1b 🇩🇪 or the R400 integration in the U.S Abrams tank that could be up to $3b over 15 years contract🇺🇸. This stock has many paths for value creation and the valuation is still reasonable. Not saying it will go right, but the r/r is clearly there. The Q4 25 call was also very bullish. Long.
The Small Pond tweet media
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
This is a good time to add back some tech/semi exposure. By the time absolute peace is confirmed s&p500 will be > 7,000. wsj.com/livecoverage/i…
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Logic I’m surprised you have not considered some defense exposure at this point, either US or Europe. Growth for many years to come, many high growth niches, detached from macro, no AI disruption risk. I think they benefit in both an escalation and de-escalation. The western world needs more weapons. I’m >60% in defense with 20% cash and portfolio is holding up well above S&P. Giving me enough YTD buffer to monitor and protect capital.
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Logical Thesis
Logical Thesis@LogicalThesis·
Another thing I noticed is Last year I was stressing, nonstop trading during Feb-Apr. For what? To outperform $SPY by 5-10%? I went on to finish the year +181% I'm gonna kill myself for 5-10%, when I can get much higher, easier gains after? Ya, opt out. Revisit. Ez decision.
Logical Thesis@LogicalThesis

I wish I quantified my stress levels a month ago vs today Diet and consistent exercise makes a huge impact. Less time stressing staring at screens. Overworking yourself for little results. I feel lighter. I just wish I stopped trading the chop sooner. Better late than never.

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
@ContrarianCurse >tell people to work more remotely, use less their car and invest more in renewables as the solution. Truly amazing
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SuspendedCap
SuspendedCap@ContrarianCurse·
>be Europe >politically cuck yourself until you are entirely dependent on other super powers >eliminate all energy self sufficiency over worthless climate targets that no one actually gives a fuck about >bureaucratic circle jerk, literally cannot move on anything of value Two choices >make a deal with China which will promptly hollow out the rest of industry that is left >make a deal with the US who protects you and you rely on for consumption butttttt blew up nordstream and now Hormuz and now you depend on to a degree never before seen Great job retards!
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Moody
Moody@MoodyWriter13·
$SNAP CEO Spiegel got engaged to supermodel Miranda Kerr in 2016 and married her in 2017, the same year Snap went public. Since the IPO, he’s sold ~$1B in stock and never bought a single share back. Not exactly great capital allocation…
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Not gonna defend the U.S current course of action, but he is right on this. EU declining to directly send troops or military equipment is one thing. Denying use of bases is something else, it's just indirect support. Europe better keep growing its defense industry. NATO is done.
Open Source Intel@Osint613

SECRETARY RUBIO: If NATO is just about us defending Europe if they’re attacked, but them denying us basing rights when we need them, then that’s not a very good arrangement. That’s a hard one to stay engaged in and say this is good for the United States.

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
This is the key issue. The company seems to operate on a fixed-price basis for all its contracts. They bake in some inflation expectations into the price, but this is based on assumptions. With the inflationary wave coming from Iran the A-10 issues could repeat again in other programs. The gross margin upside seems limited. It can work for a small % of the portfolio.
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fixit2024
fixit2024@81Ninjau·
@BlackScholesMan Hey Mike. I dig a bit further, it shows that a large portion of company’s contract is still fixed price? Am I wrong?
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Mike
Mike@BlackScholesMan·
$CVU - Too cheep to ignore. The stock was decimated because of cost overuns on the A-10 program. Now that both are going away we look ahead. They have 509M backlog vs a 51M MC - that is not a typo! They just recently got a large classified program win from $RTX. I suspect hypersonic missiles, but it could be anything. I expect a continued re-rate higher.
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rubicon59
rubicon59@rubicon59·
I asked, btw, because maybe stock beneficiaries.
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Seriously, what's the rationale for *not* owning a large defense exposure right now? $NXSN $LASR $EOS.AX $OSS $LPTH $FEIM $AVIO $FTG.TO - Growing under ANY scenario, also peace. - NATO budgets structurally moving higher + you can buy growing mixes within those expanding budgets: UAS, cUAS, USVs, DEWs/HELs, EW, space... the list is endless. - Detached from macro. - Massive re-stocking cycle of missiles, artillery, ammunition etc. even more so with the Iran war. - No AI disruption risk. If anything, a beneficiary. If conflict escalates -> backlogs go through the roof. If conflic de-escalates-> broader market recovers and defense stocks with it.
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_

The current AI fears are not too different from the Deepseek FUD, but we are not having the V shaped recovery that many people got used to during Deepseek & the April tariffs. AI is making software development faster and cheaper & that is ultimately good for tech stocks. It will accelerate product cycles and reduce costs for companies that can properly integrate AI. In the short-term, yes, there will be jobs cuts as it takes time to adapt to this new reality. Once firms have internalized the changes, job functions will evolve and the economy will adapt like it always does. Markets will not price in absolute improvements immediately. Indices are still filled with old software firms that will struggle to adapt. It will take time before these firms are replaced in the indices by the newcomers that will eat their lunch. Just be mindful of the sectors you invest in. Playing AI through hardware/energy/industrials seems safer than software. I’m still big on defense, which is isolated from all this and even a beneficiary of AI implementation at the edge. In the meantime macro looks good. Job numbers are holding up well (despite AI productivity), inflation is holding up well (and AI is deflationary), and rates still have room for cuts. The market needs to breathe after a crazy 2025 and this is healthy. It might breathe even more. But as long as macro data remains strong I don’t see a big reason to be bearish.

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OptimusDelta
OptimusDelta@OptimusDelta·
$EOS.AX & Germany - joining the dots 🧵 A bit of information, and highly speculative, but it's the weekend, so strap in 🫦
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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Turkey could follow soon: x.com/Osinttechnical… "And we most recently we also signed a strategic partnership agreement with the Turkish company, ROKETSAN. ROKETSAN is also very strong, very large company active in the missile domain today, which has decided to enter into the high energy laser weapon domain. And with ROKETSAN, we are in a very comfortable position and very optimistic to conquer also the Turkish and associated export market with high energy laser weapons."
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical

Reports of an Iranian ballistic missile attack targeting Incirlik, Turkey, tonight, as Iran continues to attempt to strike the sprawling airbase in the NATO member state.

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
Nice. But not as nice as the 450 billion cubic meters the Netherlands still has but refuses to extract to save the climate 🙂. Enough to supply Spain for 15 years or Germany for 5. In the meantime they prefer to import. Apparently imported gas does not contaminate.
Verso Europa 🇪🇺@VersoEuropa

Romania is set to become one of the European Union’s most important gas producers. The Neptun Deep field in the Black Sea contains an estimated 100 billion cubic meters of natural gas, with production expected to start around 2027.

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The Small Pond
The Small Pond@TheSmallPond_·
At this point $EOS.AX needs more *laser* contracts to solidify the thesis beyond NL and a doubtful SK contract. They need to prove that countries want their lasers vs defense national champions that are behind in technology but ensure sovereignty. Otherwise the stock is just pure beta and it won't be able to sustain a long-term rally. $EOS.AX is ITAR free yes. It is the laser play for EU + RoW yes. It can benefit from EU wanting to reduce dependence on US yes. But the advantage $LASR offers at this point is they are already integrated into the largest military budget in the world with no additional sales efforts ($1-1.5tn). To access a similar budget $EOS.AX needs to work through 27 EU countries, one by one, with different agendas, interests and technologies. These countries also compete among them to a certain extent. It could be that once 1-2 EU countries place orders the rest rush. That would be the ideal scenario. Possible candidates for more laser orders: NL, Germany (reevaluating prior allocations), maybe Poland through SK. Ex-EU UAE looks a strong candidate too: they are at the epicenter of the action right now and EOS CEO mentioned they are advanced in working towards a JV. The good thing is that an order of "just" 5-10 laser units can easily 2x EOS from here. But the risk is significantly higher than for $LASR until those orders arrive. Holding both.
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Keşfet

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