Stocker-Man

I am continuing to accumulate $ASTS and $CRWV with their recent pullback. I want to begin with $CRWV. The more I study $CRWV, the more I think the entire investment case comes down to one thing and that is execution. Demand isn’t the problem. $CRWV now has roughly $99B in remaining performance obligations (backlog), giving it one of the largest contracted AI infrastructure revenue pipelines in the industry. Revenue is expected to grow from roughly $2B in 2025 to well over $10B annually within the next few years if management executes on existing customer demand. But here’s why the stock remains controversial. The balance sheet is aggressive. Tens of billions of dollars in debt and financing obligations. Billions more in planned AI infrastructure CapEx. Significant interest expense while the company is still scaling. The market isn’t questioning whether AI demand exists. It’s questioning whether $CRWV can build enough GPU capacity, deliver projects on time, and convert that $99B backlog into recognized revenue while improving profitability. These are the numbers I’ll be watching next earnings: - Backlog growth and how much converts into revenue. - Quarterly CapEx and whether spending is becoming more efficient. - Operating cash flow and free cash flow trends. - Gross margin and EBITDA margin progression as utilization increases. - Debt levels, interest expense, and any refinancing updates. Available liquidity and cash on the balance sheet. If utilization continues improving, each new data center should generate significantly more cash flow over time while fixed costs are spread across a larger revenue base. That’s why I’m less focused on today’s balance sheet and more focused on whether management is executing against the numbers. If they are, today’s leverage could look far less intimidating.

People are going to hate me for this: But now is not the time to buy $NBIS. I do think it's worth selling here. Let me explain why: 1) $NBIS operates in the AI data center / GPU cloud hosting layer ofc. Basically, selling compute capacity. This segment is becoming increasingly crowded and competitive: - Hyperscalers ($GOOGL, $AMZN, $MSFT, $META, etc.) are aggressively building their own internal capacity at massive scale. - Multiple specialized neoclouds and traditional providers are chasing the same constrained resources (power, land, GPUs, and interconnection). - As capacity comes online across the industry, utilization rates and pricing power can compress for pure hosting plays. 2) $NBIS has outlined multi-GW data center buildout plans. This creates elevated binary risks: - Power procurement and grid interconnection delays (a major industry bottleneck). - Construction and permitting timelines. - Actual customer utilization ramp after facilities come online. - High ongoing capex intensity to stay competitive. 3) $NBIS has geopolitical risk (origin overhang): - As a carve out from Yandex, $NBIS carries residual geopolitical perception risk (Russian origins, sanctions history), which can affect trust and long-term contracts with Western hyperscalers: Even as it focuses on US/Europe assets. 4) $NBIS valuation seems pretty high here: - In Q1 2026 earnings were decent. Revenue $399M (strong beat, massive YoY growth) and narrower EPS loss than expected. But it's still unprofitable. - They have crazy 2026 guidance ($3B–$3.4B+ revenue/ARR range discussed) which seems pretty aggressive and requires close to flawless execution on new capacity imo. - Insane Trailing Multiples: TTM P/S: 80x, EV/Revenue (TTM): 77x, Trailing P/E: 102–108x (on $2.60–2.92 EPS). Even high-growth AI names rarely sustain 50x+ trailing sales for long without massive profitability or clear path to it. - Still Losing Money on a Normalized/Operating Basis: Operating income TTM: –$619M (op margin deeply negative), EBITDA TTM: –$38.6M, normalized net income is negative; the big positive GAAP net income ($817M TTM / $621M in Q1) is also heavily boosted by unusual/one-time items (likely spin-off gains, investments, or fair value adjustments from the Yandex restructuring). - Forward P/S on Guided Revenue Is Still Premium (22x). At $71B mkt cap and $3.2B midpoint FY2026 guidance -> 22x forward sales. This is pretty crazy. 5) $NBIS technical analysis wise looks massively overbought): - We seem to be hitting the top of the 5 wave (out of the 1-2-3-4-5) on the HTF. On the LTF, we also seem to be hitting the wave 5, adding confluence to this resistance area. - We ran through the 1.618 level and 2.618 level showing a high sign of aggressive buying. Now we're at the 3.618 level, which means very aggressive buying has just occured. This is why, overall, I'm bearish $NBIS. "What are some other names worth buying then, and what should be my game plan?" I gotchu. $OPTX, $ASYS, and $SHMD are 3 great stocks. It's worth buying these right now imo. It's just not worth the risk holding $NBIS here, compared to them. Now, I don't fully dislike $NBIS (for a couple reasons), so here's how I'm going to play this out though: I'm going to sell my shares here (that I bought at 90). If $NBIS goes to 310, then uses the 3.618 level as support, then I will look to get in again, because that means we're going fully parabolic. It would mean losing a 5% move to the upside, on the potential of a large 20% move downward. That's why I'm doing this. Hope this makes sense on what I'm doing, and why. Of course, there are counter takes to these arguments (I'm not denying that). But, it's all about if those counterarguments make more sense. Right now, it seems we are very overbought, with a very high valuation. If we continue to run, and this "bubble" continues to grow, I'd happily join that (after losing out on a 5% run lol). If you enjoyed, pls lmk your guys' thoughts. And if you have any other sort of reasoning you guys want to come to me with, feel free to comment it below (I try to read everyone's comments, and respond ofc). Just my 2c and what I'm doing here.

A lot of AI stocks are down today. But not all of them are good buying opportunities. So here's my top 5 large AI stocks to buy, and the best prices to buy them at: 1) $MU - I think we get a dip to $820, and once it gets there, that's going to be a great buying opportunity. 2) $SNDK - $1290 seems like a great buying opportunity, we got that as the end of the last wave, and 3) $SIVE - $34 would be an amazing opportunity to get a bid in. This one I think is the closest to bottoming out. The accumulation seems like it's starting earliest (as it has gone down the most). 4) $AAOI - I'd love to get in at $83 dollars... but I don't know if it's the most realistic. So, I'm DCAing in here at $108, and will load up heavy if we get there. 5) $QCOM - $166 seems like the perfect bottom for this one. I love this company, and believe it'll be one of the best investments in the future (along with $INTC). Like I said, some stocks will go lower than others. And some are better buys here than others. But these 5, in general, will be a great buying opportunity over the long term. All you have to do it hold.

$NFLX The business is still incredibly strong. The problem isn’t the fundamentals, It’s the valuation. With softer guidance, I don’t think the market is willing to keep paying the same premium multiple it was before. This feels a lot like $DUOL. Great business but softer outlook. let due multiple compression. The challenge now isn’t figuring out whether $NFLX is a good company. It’s figuring out where the market finally decides the valuation is attractive again. I was fortunate enough to catch $DUOL around $100 after its valuation reset. Now I’m asking myself the same question with $NFLX. Where’s the bottom?

$NBIS - support didn't hold It will very likely reach the $170 target. But even there, I wouldn't buy based on price alone; instead, I would wait for a bottom to form and watch for corresponding buy signals. If the bottom fails to form there and the downward trend continues at this pace, then the final target would be around $130. At that level, I firmly expect a successful bottom to form.