The Tesla Signal

Tesla reports Q2 earnings Wednesday. Day 20 of the v14 Lite wait. Still 1 tracked install. Here are the 5 HW3 questions Tesla should answer on that call: 1.Ashok said wider rollout “over the next few weeks” on June 29. We’re 20 days in. When is the wide release? A date, not a vibe. 2.The discounted trade in was announced April 22. That’s 88 days ago. What’s the number? 3.The retrofit, computer AND cameras, is reportedly mid 2027. Is there a spec, a price, a reservation process? Anything? 4.Robotaxi: will a retrofitted HW3 car EVER be eligible to earn in the fleet? Yes or no. 5.January 2025, Elon’s commitment: Tesla will “have to upgrade” HW3 computers for FSD buyers. Does that still stand as spoken? Bookmark this. Wednesday night we score which ones got answered. My prediction: one out of five, at best. What’s your sixth question?

This is the sentence HW3 owners wanted. Ashok says the version Zack reviewed is likely going wide. Zack identifies it as 2026.20.6.10 after 100 plus miles. Teslascope still shows one install. Not wide yet. But this may be the build. How soon does Tesla push it? I’m guessing before earnings call ? 🤔

Movement. 🚨 First v14 Lite activity in 21 days. A new build exists: 2026.20.6.10, and it carries FSD v14 Lite for HW3. First tracked install this morning at 7:17am. Who got it: the same single early access Model 3 that has carried this rollout alone since June 29. What changed: a new Brake Confirm option for engaging from Park, plus refined Arrival Options. Small, careful, validation driven changes. Read the sequence. A feedback build ships to the canary car 48 hours before Tesla takes earnings questions. Not a wide wave. Still 1 car. But the freeze just ended. Prediction: the wide wave ships on 20.6.10 or its successor within 10 days. Hold me to it.

48 hours until Tesla takes questions. Here's the paradox they'll need to explain: Their own v14 Lite build drove LA to San Diego with zero interventions. A 12.6.4 owner logged 3,000 miles with zero disengagements and still wants the upgrade. Every early access report is glowing. And the rollout: 1 tracked install. 0 pending. 22 days. Software this good, frozen this long, is not a technical story. It's a decision. Wednesday we find out whose. My 5 questions are pinned above. Prediction: they answer one. What's your theory for the freeze? Best one gets quoted in my earnings live thread.

@elonmusk Grok 4.5 holding three of the six slots in that workflow is the real signal. Research, daily coding, and tests are where most of the hours actually go.

Grok

@elonmusk The interesting part is it committed to a single answer instead of hedging. Most models would have given you five paragraphs of maybes.

Grok is good at predictions

@SpaceX Flight 13 already back on the calendar. The gap between attempts keeps shrinking with every flight, and that turnaround pace is what will eventually make Starship feel routine.

Now targeting to launch Starship’s thirteenth flight test as early as Thursday, July 23 → spacex.com/launches/stars…

@HorizonCap21 Yeah, Tesla actually has a strict no resale rule for the first year unless you get their permission in writing. If you try to flip it anyway, they can hit you with a $50,000 fine or take the full resale value ..whichever is more.

@TheTeslaSignal Wasn’t there a clause for these with a massive sellers fee to Tesla if it sold in a certain timeframe?

Tesla sold the Model S Plaid Signature Edition for $159,420. Invite only. 250 cars. The final Model S ever built. Three months later, one just hit the resale market: 50 miles on the odometer, asking $499,995. That’s a $340,000 markup for taking delivery. The detail everyone misses: these cars came with purchased FSD and lifetime Supercharging. Tesla stopped selling FSD outright in February. Lifetime Supercharging died years ago. This isn’t just a rare car flip. It’s someone pricing promises Tesla no longer sells. Would you pay half a million for the last Model S ever made? Or does this flip age terribly?

The July 15 test came and went. Result: v14 Lite still shows 1 tracked install. Zero pending. Zero statements from Tesla. Day 19. “Will rollout to more customers over the next few weeks.” Ashok wrote that June 29. We are now in week 3 of “next few weeks.” Even Teslascope’s guidance said 1 to 3 weeks of quiet after a first push is normal. That grace period runs out this weekend. The next place Tesla can’t stay silent: Wednesday’s Q2 earnings call. If HW3 doesn’t come up on that call, the silence IS the answer. What would you ask them Wednesday?

Can’t wait to see this update . FSD remembering user preferences and drop off / parking locations

FSD 14.3.5 update Downloading. aside from the camera view, what else is different ?

@wholemars Still waiting

Tesla Self-Driving 14.3.5 now rolling out to more cars

@SawyerMerritt A rogue bouncy ball at 77 mph is the kind of edge case no simulator would ever dream up. The real world remains undefeated as a test suite. This is why I don't mind sending my data back to the Tesla servers

My Model Y absolutely launched this rogue bouncy ball on the highway today 😂

Tesla Dashcam might be the most underrated feature. FSD gets all the love, but the built in dashcam is a real deal. No need to pay an extra $99 per month. It is there all the time, watching everything, saving lives and a lot of headaches

@elonmusk @minchoi Training a 2T model that keeps 1.5T level speed and token efficiency is the hard part. If it really finishes initial training next week, the gap between major versions keeps shrinking every cycle. Grok is groking fast

@minchoi Our 2T model, which is better than our 1.5T in every way, will finish initial training next week. It might be able to exceed Kimi, but with speed and token efficiency close to our 1.5T (aka Grok 4.5).

Grok 4.5 is only 1.5T parameters. Kimi K3 is 2.8T... and costs 3× more per task. SpaceXAI cracked intelligence efficiency. Now imagine Grok at 3T.

@TeslaCharging Love seeing Tesla keep expanding Wall Connector for Business. 64 new sites in just two weeks is huge. That 61-connector spot in LA is basically a whole mini charging hub on its own.

Wall Connector for Business sites that opened in the last 2 weeks (64 sites, 381 total Wall Connectors across public and private properties). Learn more about Wall Connector for Business: tesla.com/commercial-wal… - 930 West 8th Place - Los Angeles, CA (61 Wall Connectors) - Modera Saint Paul - Dallas, TX (48 Wall Connectors) - CPV 12035 Waterfront - Los Angeles, CA (20 Wall Connectors) - CPV 12025 Waterfront - Los Angeles, CA (20 Wall Connectors) - CPV 12045 Waterfront - Los Angeles, CA (20 Wall Connectors) - The Sylvan - Englewood Cliffs, NJ (20 Wall Connectors) - Casa Iglesia - Santa Barbara, CA (8 Wall Connectors) - Home2 Suites - Henderson, NV (8 Wall Connectors) - Lakeview at The Gates of Prosper West - Prosper, TX (6 Wall Connectors) - Magnum Plaza - Chamblee, GA (6 Wall Connectors) - Phoenix Central - Phoenix, AZ (6 Wall Connectors) - HIEX - Kennesaw, GA (6 Wall Connectors) - The Enclave at Canopy Park - Orlando, FL (6 Wall Connectors) - Hampton Inn - Belgrade, MT (6 Wall Connectors) - Fairfield Inn & Suites - Grand Rapids, MI (6 Wall Connectors) - PickleRage - Plainfield, NJ (6 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy 35th Avenue - Phoenix, AZ (4 Wall Connectors) - 2659 Townsgate Road - Westlake Village, CA (4 Wall Connectors) - Tru by Hilton - Wake Forest, NC (4 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy GCU North 27th Avenue - Phoenix, AZ (4 Wall Connectors) - Sanibel Straits - Fort Myers, FL (4 Wall Connectors) - 1000 Town Center Drive - Oxnard, CA (4 Wall Connectors) - The Center at Cherry Hill 1810 - Cherry Hill Township, NJ (4 Wall Connectors) - The Center at Cherry Hill 1800 - Cherry Hill Township, NJ (4 Wall Connectors) - Vernon Township Trustee's Office & VTFD HQ - Fortville, IN (4 Wall Connectors) - Best Kirkwood - St. Louis, MO (4 Wall Connectors) - Glen Helen Cascades Lot - Yellow Springs, OH (4 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy GCU 29th Avenue - Phoenix, AZ (4 Wall Connectors) - 7919 Tuckerman Lane - Potomac, MD (4 Wall Connectors) - Sonesta Simply Suites - Renton, WA (4 Wall Connectors) - Vista at Brighton - Brighton, MI (4 Wall Connectors) - 6025 Royal Lane - Dallas, TX (4 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy GCU 29th & Missouri - Phoenix, AZ (4 Wall Connectors) - Park Place 2 Condominiums Association - Washington, DC (3 Wall Connectors) - Mountain Mike's Pizza - Carmichael, CA (3 Wall Connectors) - Pickle Pit Stop - Austin, TX (3 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy GCU Colter Street - Phoenix, AZ (2 Wall Connectors) - Hampton Inn & Suites - Tyler, TX (2 Wall Connectors) - Horizons Summers Corner Club - Summerville, SC (2 Wall Connectors) - Galleria Oaks - Austin, TX (2 Wall Connectors) - Holiday Inn Express Brisbane Central - Spring Hill, QLD (2 Wall Connectors) - CG Infinity Inc. - Plano, TX (2 Wall Connectors) - Winchester Frederick County Visitor Center - Winchester, VA (2 Wall Connectors) - Gunflint Lodge & Outfitters - Grand Marais, MN (2 Wall Connectors) - Westminster Theological Seminary - Glenside, PA (2 Wall Connectors) - Aliphia Energy GCU North 35th Avenue - Phoenix, AZ (2 Wall Connectors) - The Lexington Dilworth - Charlotte, NC (2 Wall Connectors) - Wild West EV The Trails End - Dubois, WY (2 Wall Connectors) - Wild West EV Stagecoach Inn & Suites - Dubois, WY (2 Wall Connectors) - The Hotel Earl - Charlevoix, MI (2 Wall Connectors) - 1221 Brickell Avenue - Miami, FL (2 Wall Connectors) - Lancaster Apartments - Tampa, FL (2 Wall Connectors) - 7505 North MacArthur - Irving, TX (2 Wall Connectors) - Hyatt Studios - Texarkana, TX (2 Wall Connectors) - The Winn at Golden Valley - Golden Valley, MN (2 Wall Connectors) - Turtle Rock Cafe - Napa, CA (2 Wall Connectors) - Byrider - Lafayette, IN (2 Wall Connectors) - Comfort Inn & Suites - Pacific, WA (2 Wall Connectors) - IZ Buffalo - Las Vegas, NV (2 Wall Connectors) - The Herrington Inn & Spa - Geneva, IL (1 Wall Connector) - City of Fort Wayne Traffic Operations - Fort Wayne, IN (1 Wall Connector) - Clocktower on 45th - Murray, UT (1 Wall Connector) - Synergy Office - Rigby, ID (1 Wall Connector) - Getchius Enterprises AirBnb - Redgranite, WI (1 Wall Connector)

@wholemars Imagine if Anthropic releases Mythos to the public ? Game over

wow

@Tesla A real FSD ride wins people over faster than any online argument. Once the car handles normal traffic for a few minutes, you stop thinking about the tech and start wondering why every car can’t do it.

Experiencing FSD Supervised firsthand wins people over

@SERobinsonJr The fact that material is already moving to Giga Texas is the real milestone here. Tesla didn’t build this just for a ribbon cutting, it’s already feeding 4680 production.

Yesterday I attended the Tesla Lithium Day 2026 event at the Robstown, Texas, Lithium Refinery. The facility is now complete and fully rammped! Materials are being shipped to Giga Texas for 4680 production.