Mr. Z

JUST IN - President Trump just issued a statement: "WORLD'S MOST POWERFUL RESET!!!"

BREAKING: The U.S. Senate has confirmed an April markup for the CLARITY Act. Senate markup is confirmed for the second half of April. Final passage is targeted for May and Senator Moreno has warned that if the bill does not pass by then, digital asset legislation will not receive serious consideration again before 2027. The entire fight comes down to stablecoin yield. The current draft bans passive yield, users cannot earn by simply holding stablecoins. Activity based rewards for payments and transfers are still allowed. That distinction puts $1.35 billion of Coinbase's annual revenue directly at risk, nearly one fifth of everything the company earns. Coinbase has rejected the bill twice and is now coordinating a formal counterproposal with multiple major crypto firms to get the language changed before the draft hardens. Banks are pushing in the opposite direction. Jamie Dimon and Brian Armstrong have reportedly clashed directly over stablecoin economics. April is the window. Everything gets decided in the next four weeks.

GOLD $20,000 CALLS SURGE DESPITE RECORD SELLOFF Deep out-of-the-money bullish bets on gold are building even after a historic correction. After COMEX gold futures briefly topped $5,600 an ounce in late January before suffering their largest one-day drop in decades, traders began accumulating December $15,000/$20,000 call spreads. The position has since grown to roughly 11,000 contracts, even with prices consolidating near $5,000. Aakash Doshi of State Street Investment Management said the size of the trade is striking given its distance from current prices, likening it to a “cheap lottery ticket.” Gold has doubled since early 2024, fueled by speculative flows, geopolitical tensions, concerns about the Federal Reserve’s independence, and diversification away from currencies and sovereign bonds. For the spread to expire in the money, prices would need to nearly triple by December. The structure limits upside but reduces upfront cost, allowing traders to exit on a sharp rally or hold to expiry if gold surpasses $15,000. While spot prices remain far below those levels, the trades have lifted implied volatility for far-upside calls. Despite a recent easing in call skew, realized volatility remains elevated, leaving room for large price swings after January’s 11% plunge and October’s sharp correction to $4,000.