The Early Shift

Murf Gray Breaks Camp in 2027 -- And Other Tales I’ve been a Murf Gray enthusiast for some time, covering him before the season as a part of the prospect series and then throughout his meteoric rise through the system. And as such, I know a thing or two about him. Like I know that his favorite player is Aaron Judge. And his favorite food is steak. And that he’d very much like to have a steak dinner with Aaron Judge. See, I told you I know a lot of stuff about him. I also know that yesterday, Gray hit his second home run in just four games since joining the Curve last week -- a grand slam. It was his 25th home run this season in 369 plate appearances across three levels. Along with 19 doubles, Gray has a .323/.405/.610 line that is pretty darn impressive. And he’s done it all with one glass eye, another little known fact about Gray that few… what’s that.,, ah, okay, it seems I might have some of these facts wrong. Except the steak part. He really does love steak. I mean, who doesn’t? A Man, a Plan, a Canal, Panama You ever get a special feeling seeing a prospect in the minor leagues up close? A feeling where you just know you’re watching a future major league starter? I felt it distinctly in 2009 watching Starling Marte in A+ play for the West Virginia Power, taking on the Greensboro Grasshoppers, who at the time were a Marlins’ affiliate. He had the physicality and bearing of a grown ass man playing with a bunch of children. I remember it super distinctly. Earlier this year I finally got a chance to see Murf Gray play for the ‘Hoppers, before he moved up, and he had that same look. And it isn’t just that he’s 22 year old, as there were plenty of his teammates the same age. The guy is built, and he has a bit of a pronounced leg kick that is like starting up a motorcycle. We Interrupt This Program For This Special Bulletin I know the CBA is throwing the start of next season into some question. It’s quite possible there is a lockout that either delays the start of the season or cancels it altogether. The collective bargaining agreement expires at midnight on December 1, so if it drags out, there either won’t be a spring training or it will be truncated. Signs are pointing to an impasse that will lead to a work stoppage. I didn’t think that was likely up to just a few weeks ago, but the train has left the station. All that said, who the hell knows what will happen. I am increasingly starting to prognosticate about moves that will be made to impact 2027, and that’s too difficult to do as a writer with so much up in the air. So sometimes, I’m just going to pretend like next year is just like any other year, mostly to make a point. And in this case, the point is that Gray is the shit and he deserves your respect. Meet the Third Baseman We’re Taking North Paul Skenes pitched in just 12 total games in the minors before debuting in 2024, less than a year after being drafted. More than just his #1 overall pedigree was his stuff and the way he shut down opposing offenses. Gray is like that offensively. He has manhandled (like a man) opposing pitchers, and has hit at every level. I was holding off on this column until he made his AA debut, but it’s clear he is undisturbed. In my fantasyland, where spring training happens as per usual, Gray is on the flight north with the rest of the team. Based on my recent math regarding funding availability for 2027, there won’t be much left to play with if the payroll remains in the $105M range. It won’t be enough to sign Brandon Lowe, not that we should. Gonzalez can slide back to his natural position of 2B and… who else can take 3B? If Murf Gray keeps hitting, taking him to Pittsburgh for opening day solves a 2026 season-long challenge at the hot corner. And just imagine a lineup with Gray joining a healthy Konnor Griffin, Esmerlyn Valdez, Spencer Horwitz, Ryan O’Hearn, Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz… I mean, yeah. His Defense Will Play, Dammit Of late on X there has been talk of his defense being poor, and compared to Pedro Alvarez, which is not true at all. While he is stocky and a bit slow footed, he has a strong arm and makes the routine plays. He has just 6 errors in over 500 innings at 3B, which works just fine. Third base is a bit of a wasteland as you look throughout baseball, with few bonafide stars giving both strong offense and defense. Against that backdrop, and playing next to Griffin, Gray needn’t be a gold glover to fill a desperate need. The Bottom Line 📌 The Pirates are in sole possession of the third wild card slot this morning (at least for the next 9 hours), which is yet another first this late in the season for many years. The Pirates can no longer afford to play it safe, messing around with service time manipulation when every single game matters. The minor league season in 2027 will not be affected no matter what is happening with the CBA. So worst case scenario, Gray will get his prerequisite 200+ plate appearances at AAA before moving up. He might even get a full season there if the lock out gets nasty. But if by some small miracle an agreement is reached before the start of spring training -- one that includes a cap and floor because that is worth a lockout to achieve -- I am predicting Gray is the opening day 3B. And when he hits a HR in his first game as a major leaguer, you can find him afterward celebrating with the cowboy cut, bone-in ribeye at Eddie Merlot’s. #letsgobucs

Another Esmerlyn Valdez Column? You’re God Damn Right! What are we witnessing, people? In the third inning of last night’s depressing opening matchup with the Yankees in the Bronx, Esmerlyn Valdez cranked an opposite field home run that went 436 feet, deep into the seats in right field. It was Valdez’s 13th home run in 32 games, a span of just 121 plate appearances. It was his seventh HR in eight games, and extended his extra base hit streak the same number of games. On a team that has had its fair share of phenom performances over the last few years, Valdez’s romp through the league has been something else entirely. I’m frankly running out of superlatives to do justice to what he’s doing. Effortless, Tape Measure Power Beyond the statistical assessment which is so impressive and fun numbers to crunch, watching Valdez hit is part of what elicits such enthusiasm. This is a hitter who is constantly learning and growing at the plate. When he first came up in May, he was not as discerning. He struck out in 50% of his plate appearances and seemed a bit overmatched. I recall one three-pitch strike out where he swung badly through three straight pitches. The hitter we see now is different. He is still striking out a lot (more on that in a minute), but he’s also taking more pitches for balls. And taking pitches at which 95% of batters would be swinging. He is not offering on sinkers and fastballs low and out of the zone, for example. He walked twice in the game on Sunday and once more last night, giving him 13 BB in 121 PA, a 10.7% walk rate that will play just fine and I suspect will only improve over time. An Unsustainable K Rate? As fantastic as Valdez has been, he has just one glaring hole in his game -- a 38% strikeout rate. In fact, during this streak he’s struck out twice in each of the last six games, with 14 overall in his eight-game hitting streak. Thus far it’s been a footnote on a season that has seen him hit 13 HR, 7 doubles and a triple. Of his 33 hits, 22 have gone for extra bases. Which is just… unfathomable. A bunch of strikeouts would appear to be the price of such prodigious power, and who among us wouldn’t gladly take it as a tradeoff? Interestingly, I get a sense that Valdez himself is not content with it. The only time I ever see any real frustration from him is when he swings through a pitch he regrets offering at. As he becomes more discerning, he is forcing pitchers into the zone. While I don’t think he will ever be known for low strikeout totals, I do expect that rate to recede some over time. It slowed in June, even during his stretch of hitting a home run in four consecutive games. He only had 10 K in 32 June ABs, but now 27 K in 60 July ABs. I’d gladly take a 30% K rate in exchange for the sort of power he is giving us. Sign me up. Speaking of Signing, Can We Sign This Guy? The Pirates did a pretty huge thing earlier this year, inking Konnor Griffin to the largest contract in franchise history. At nine years, $140 million, KG will be a Bucco through the 2034 season. And my hope is that he is playing all those years with Valdez. Griffin was signed pretty much sight unseen. He hadn’t yet demonstrated an ability to hit major league pitching. In fact, he’d had a pretty underwhelming spring training at the plate that got him sent to AAA for five games to start the year (or so they say). Such was the confidence in his skills. So what does management think of Valdez’s performance? Is it not worthy of the same level of investment as a differentiated bat now being proven out in game after game? At what point does this go from a curiosity to a seismic debut of historic proportions? Does ownership have the sack to hand out two game-changing contracts in a 12-month timeframe? I get that Valdez doesn’t have Griffin’s infield defense or speed on the base paths. And there are some holes in his game still to iron out. But certainly the same could be said about KG, who was counted on to mature into the franchise player mold. Why not Valdez as well? The Bottom Line 📌 How much longer before this starts to become the talk of MLB? Valdez has lately drawn comparisons to Yordan Alvarez, and there is discussion of him as a late entrant in the Rookie of the Year race. But for as special as this recent run has been, I still don’t think much is known about him outside Pittsburgh. That will surely change if he keeps this up. I'm trying to coach myself not to be too let down when he stops hitting a HR every 9.3 plate appearances as he is doing now (seriously, that's his rate). He will hit a lull, I mean, right? That's a thing? It'll happen and he'll be striking out twice a game, and it will be easy to get sour. But not for this kid. His hard work and determination is evident. No lazy, listless play that makes you question his level of effort (ahem). He seems eager to absorb every experience as data and return better informed. The Magician has only begun to refine his stagecraft. I can’t wait to see what he has planned for the next act.

At the Century Mark, Pirates Enter Playoff Contention That certainly took long enough. At 100 games into the Pirates’ 2026 season, the team has officially entered wildcard contention. With yesterday’s win, the Pirates are now tied with the Marlins and Cardinals for the third wildcard spot. Yesterday’s win capped a run going 8-3 over the last 11 games, which included three first place teams. The Buccos are proving they could be dangerous in a short series with the bats and frontline starters to win games. With 62 games now still to go, the next two weeks will be defining as GM Ben Cherington works to acquire multiple bullpen arms to fortify the last three innings of each game. Another reliever meltdown in the second game of the double-header on Saturday proved that the troubles are still with us, marking the 18th blown save on the year. The Pirates cannot afford to stand pat this trade deadline. Not when it has such a playoff-caliber squad otherwise. But to get something done, Cherington will need to get creative. Capitation, Thy Name is Nutting According to a report from USA Today’s Bob Nightengale, the Pirates are looking to add to the bullpen without adding payroll. It was an off-handed comment in the "around the basepaths" section at the bottom of another article, and it quoted data that was a week old. Still, like day-old white bread at the koi pond, it’s gotten a bunch of traction as it was amplified online, but with no direct comment from Cherington himself. This could just be “the word around the clubs” from conversations Nightengale's had with other GMs. It certainly tracks as something that might be known and stated matter-of-factly as a footnote in an article on another subject entirely. Of course, Pirates Twitter is turning it into gospel fact and calling for Cherington’s ouster, as if having a cheap owner is somehow his fault. But that doesn’t stop the peanut gallery, even amidst a surge of success, from turning plums into prune juice. But I question whether this is even news. It feels more like an anecdote commenting on a traditionally cost-conscious franchise. There’s no blank check here? Got it. No one expected that there was. Cash Is King But let’s assume for a moment that this should be taken at face value: the Pirates can take on $0 in additional payroll. Can trades even be made if that is case? Sure they can, and that’s one of the ways the trade deadline differs from offseason trades. Whereas a prospect-for-cash exchange would be frowned upon and potentially investigated in December, selling off prospects is what trades in July are all about. Cherington can add volume or increase the quality of prospects involved to get the trade partner team to include cash in the deal for any reliever. The cash can be used to offset or even fully-fund that player’s remaining contract. So if a reliever has a contract for $9 million in 2026, the Pirates would be taking on roughly 1/3 of that salary for the remainder of the season. If the return is right, the trade partner could throw in most or all of that $3 million to get it done. But with so few teams selling at this deadline, the cost of these trades was already going to be high in prospect capital. Needing cash in the deal just makes it that much steeper. Shed Payroll The other way this could get done would be to unload contracts impinging on the 2026 payroll. Unfortunately, the largest contracts of players we'd want to see traded include Marcell Ozuna and Dennis Santana -- two players with questionable value. Can Ozuna be moved? In 36 games and across 147 PA since May 1, he’s put up a .736 OPS with 6 HR. It’s not great, but it’s not nothing either. For a team that still perceives itself as having a fighting chance, he could represent an upgrade to the bench. Ozuna is owed roughly $3.5 million on the rest of the 2026 season, and the Pirates can pay the $1.5 million buyout out of next year’s payroll. If they covered $1-$2 million, another team might just bite. Getting a few million dollars of budget relief might be all that is needed to make a difference, as insane as that sounds. The Bottom Line 📌 As is often the case, people are losing their collective shit online about an offhanded comment by a reporter who is often wrong. Some people need to get a grip. But at the same time, I mean, duh. Did anyone really think Cherington had unlimited funds? Instead, Cherington will need to be his usual creative self, something he’s proven very adept at doing. Trading our CBR-A draft pick to the White Sox for Jacob Gonzalez and Brandon Eisert may prove to be a stroke of genius, even saving them $2.6 million of slot money in the process. I suppose our GM will continue to be doubted until he brings Pittsburgh a championship. Adding to the bullpen now is the biggest way he can help make that happen. #letsgobucs

Minor League Stand-Out Performances of the Past Month It’s been a minute since we looked at some of the players pushing their seasons into overdrive. Here are the Top-8 performances over the last 30 days across the four levels: A- Bradenton ▫️Reinold Navarro, RP (1.62 ERA, 16.2 IP, 6 H, 30 K, 10 BB) -- Yes, the walks are still a problem, but he has cut that rate almost in half while limiting hits and maintaining an incredible K-rate. I’m hopeful he eventually gets sent up to Greensboro… and that pitching coach Matt Ford go along to keep whispering the kid. ▫️Richard Ramirez, C (.329/.372/..658, 84 PA, 6 HR, 22 K) -- If you were thinking to yourself, “we need even more catching prospects,” you’re in luck. Ramirez, the Night Stalker, just turned 21 and has exploded of late offensively. Nowhere to go until something gets figured out in Greensboro with Axiel Plaz and Easton Carmichael. A+ Greensboro ▫️Sammy Stafura, SS (.377/.433/.883, 87 PA, 11 HR, 24 K) -- No bigger story in our system the last month than the emergence of Stafura. As if finding a team to take on Ke’Bryan Hayes’ contract wasn’t miraculous enough, Stafura is just 21 and appears to have figured something out. ▫️Brian Sanchez, LF (.344/.394/.719, 69 PA, 5 HR, 14 K) -- Acquired in the Bednar trade, Sanchez was having a quiet season before turning it on the last month. He just turned 22, so good for him to prove out and move up. AA Altoona ▫️Callan Moss, 1B (.325/.378/.446, 90 PA, 2 HR, 16 K) -- Not a lot to love about the AA affiliate right now outside of Murf Gray moving up. Moss has had a good month, though he seems to have traded tape measure HR for greater pitch selection. I expected more power from him this season. ▫️Jake Shirk, RP (0.96 ERA, 9.1 IP, 1.18 WHIP) -- I’m grasping at straws here, but Shirk was an 18th round draft pick in 2024 who has had a nice month in seven appearances. At 24 years old, this constitutes a stand-out performance in Altoona. AAA Indianapolis ▫️Jhostynxon Garcia, OF (.321/.426/.462, 90 PA, 2 HR, 17 K) -- People on X seem to have soured on the Password because he didn’t come up and instantly rake. But he is showing in AAA why he was targeted in the offseason. The outfield is crowded in Pittsburgh, but Garcia will be back when rosters expand. ▫️Jose Urquidy, SP (1.13 ERA, 24.0 IP, 14 H, 24 K, 7 BB) -- Hardly a prospect, but worth noting nonetheless that Urquidy is laying in wait. Could he possibly come up to replace Keller in the rotation, or take Mlodzinski’s bulk spot if Carmen moves back into the rotation? Seems likely. #letsgobucs

My view of the relief market as it currently stands for the Pirates:

Not Very Much Money to Address Bullpen in 2027 Another morning, another complete meltdown of the bullpen the night before. When I fell asleep, the Pirates were entering the 7th up 3-0. I should have known better than to expect a win. For the first 16 innings across the two games of yesterday’s double-header, the Pirates looked great. Strong pitching from Jared Jones, Carmen Mlodzinski and newcomer Khristian Curtis were high points of a mostly dominant day overall. But then came the 8th inning of the second game where recently-acquired lefty Brandon Eisert, Gregory Soto and Dennis Santana combined to remind us that this bullpen sucks. If there is a reason we don’t make the playoffs this year, it will surely by the bullpen. Never Ever Again In retrospect, the Pirates over-indexed this past offseason on offense. Coming off a season where they were dead last in so many offensive categories, I don’t blame GM Ben Cherington for making it such a priority. He couldn’t know what was to come. The Pirates went from worst to first in many offensive categories as a result of adding talent to the team, improvements by incumbents, and the ascension of system talent ready for their shot. What perhaps no one could have seen coming was the utter collapse of the bullpen, a true Achilles heel on this otherwise built-for-battle team. And it must never be allowed to happen again. The Road Ahead I don’t see the need to add a free agent or trade for any position players or starters this coming offseason. The additions of Konnor Griffin at SS and Esmerlyn Valdez in RF solve a lot for the team. They are set to be homegrown middle-order threats to combine with Bryan Reynolds, Spencer Horwitz and Oneil Cruz. Ryan O’Hearn will still be here in 2027, and those six will form the backbone. While there has been chatter online about retaining Brandon Lowe, the money that would be spent on him could be better allocated elsewhere. Nick Gonzales slides easily back across the diamond to 2B, and we look to the addition of Murf Gray at 3B sometime next year as another internal reinforcement. With the rotation largely set for 2027 with Paul Skenes, Braxton Ashcraft, Jared Jones and Bubba Chandler, there will also no doubt be internal options for that 5th spot. That leaves the rest of available payroll for our biggest need. Modest Available Cash So how much available payroll will there be? By my calculations, not much. GM Ben Cherington will need to get creative. ▫️The Pirates have prior 2027 commitments of $53.5M to Mitch Keller ($18.4M), Bryan Reynolds ($15.25M), Ryan O’Hearn ($15M), Konnor Griffin ($3.33M) and Marcell Ozuna’s buy-out ($1.5M). ▫️The first year of arbitration is hitting for a number of players, including Paul Skenes who is likely to make close to $10 million along with Nick Gonzalez, Jared Jones, Carmen Mlodzinski and Endy Rodriguez. We are also entering Oneil Cruz’s second year of arbitration (est. $5M). Total estimated impact here will be $25M or so. ▫️If you add up the rest of the active roster and 40-man obligations, you get another $15M in obligations. That totals $93.5M in expected 2027 payroll commitments. In 2026, Bob Nutting authorized $106.4M in payroll, so if nothing else changes, that leaves just shy of $13M for improvements. Unfortunately, that goes pretty quickly when trying to add to the bullpen. And re-signing Lowe? Not bloody likely. The Bottom Line 📌 If the CBA includes a cap-and-floor, the Pirates would have to spend much more to reach the floor ($50M or more). That is a huge variable. But as we project the future, I think it’s important to stay grounded in what is known. We operate within the current model until we know we aren’t anymore. No matter the future payroll level, paying Mitch Keller nearly $20M in each of the next two seasons to be among the worst starters in baseball seems now, in retrospect, a bad idea. Especially if we really do only have $13M to address the bullpen… yikes. #letsgobucs

Nick Gonzalez in his last 23 games: .361/.454/.530 (.984 OPS), 3 HR, 12.6% K rate This is the breakout season everyone was hoping would come. He’s a big part of this offense, and continues to be so clutch: ▫️.870 OPS in 105 PA with RISP ▫️.888 OPS in 183 PA with runners on ▫️.313 BA in high leverage situations (.791 OPS) He is the original Gonzo, the man, Nicky G.

If he just keeps hitting at Altoona as he was for Greensboro, he’ll move up the top-100 list. I bet he gets to the 40-50 range before we call him up.

Is Anyone Really Untouchable? We are now a little more than two weeks away from the trade deadline on Monday, August 3. While there have been a number of smaller moves made by teams in the month and change leading up to now, the crunch time has arrived. That includes the Pirates, who sent their 34th overall CB-A draft pick to the White Sox for infielder Jacob Gonzalez and left-handed pitcher Brandon Eisert. They also sent struggling AAA relief pitcher Jaden Woods in the deal. With a little bit of time to reflect on it, that was a pretty nifty trade. I’m excited to see if Gonzalez’s AAA breakout was the start of something. But as good as it may be, it must surely be the amuse-bouche on bigger moves still to come. Eisert is a fine replacement for Evan Sisk who is out injured, but the bullpen needs more help. Dennis Santana can’t be asked to throw a baseball again for the Pirates, and Isaac Mattson can be upgraded. We also need a starter, or else a replacement for Carmen Mlodzinski as he moves into the rotation (though I’d prefer an external starter). That’s a tall order at the trade deadline. Two relievers and a starter won’t come cheap. Which means GM Ben Cherington is trying to figure out the best way to procure help without selling the proverbial farm to make it happen. The High Cost of Talent This Trade Deadline Right now, only seven teams are officially out of the wildcard hunt: the Reds (7.0 back), Giants (9.5), Mets (11.0), Rockies (13.5 back) in the NL, and the A’s (7.5 back), Royals (10.0), and Angels (11.0) in the AL. The other 23 teams see themselves as still in it, to some degree. And short of an utter collapse in the next two weeks, many of these teams will be trying to add. If the math ain’t mathin’ for you, that’s because it isn’t. A 3:1 demand marketplace means that the cost of a high-quality reliever is going to be astronomical. Literally every team would like to reinforce their bullpen. It’s the most common need. Trading from the major league roster, as controversial as it may sound, is one way to minimize the loss of prospect talent -- cheap future labor, some of it potentially game-changing, still coming up through the minors. But it's not popular, as seen this past week as talks of flipping Oneil Cruz elicited vitriol. “The trade deadline is for flipping prospects” crowd is going to get a rude awakening when they see how expensive it is to acquire reinforcements. Get Your Damn Hands Off Seth Hernandez It’s been said repeatedly, and confirmed by Pirates Insider Jason Mackey, that the only untouchable prospect is Seth Hernandez. He also mentioned Esmerlyn Valdez alongside him, which is interesting since he’s already debuted and is no longer a true prospect. But it does mean everyone else is on the table. Just because a player isn’t off the table doesn’t mean the cost to move him isn’t extraordinarily high. Most players should be on the table in that an overpay would be considered. No one wants to part with Murf Gray, but even as over-the-moon as I am for his talent, he could be had for the right price. But that price would be plenty steep. Gray is one of a few players I would be really reluctant to move because I see them having a role to play with the Pirates in the next two years. That list includes Axiel Plaz, who has been at the top of my break-out prospect list all season, and Reinold Navarro, who has come a long way in a short time under the guidance of pitching coach Matt Ford. Greater Flexibility is Needed But beyond these handful of coveted prospects lies several I am more open to moving now despite their pedigree: ▫️Edward Florentino -- His initial struggles this season at A+ are super common for young prospects, and he’s overcome them. But it does illustrate that KG was an anomaly. I like Florentino very much, but I’d say goodbye for the right return. ▫️Omar Alfonzo/Easton Carmichael -- We have a lot of catching talent. I’m betting on Plaz as a future major league primary backstop, which means the other two catchers in that conversation above Single-A are available. Carmichael and Plaz is an either/or for some, but not me. ▫️Jhostynxon Garcia -- I really prize the Password, and could see him patrolling our outfield in Pittsburgh, but he is superfluous in the near-term. He seems ready given his last 200 PA in Indy, so I’d also endorse getting him to a good situation for his career. The Bottom Line 📌 I do have concerns that this trade deadline could be detrimental to future competitiveness. If last year the Pirates flipped Valdez in a deadline deal, few would have been up in arms. He was never untouchable, at least until now. I want to win in 2026 more than almost anything, with the caveat being not to the absolute exclusion of building something sustainable beyond it. And yet, status quo is entirely unacceptable. It’s quite a tough place to be in, which is why I don’t envy Cherington. But I do eagerly await any breaking news with a mix of dread and anticipation. Welcome to the 2026 trade deadline, Pirates fans.

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Pirates 2nd Half: Hunting a Wild Card Who is ready for some baseball? This All-Star Break has felt like it's been stretching on for weeks. Such is my addiction to Pirates baseball, and there is no cure. Only getting my fix can quell this aching heart. So, where did we leave off? Ah, that’s right, in the season 3/5ths cliff hanger, the surging Pirates ran the scary gauntlet of high-performing teams and won 7 out of their last 10. They entered the break the hottest team in the National League. The Pirates are just two games off the wild card, with the Cardinals at one game back between them and the Marlins, who are the bottom rung of the wild card ladder. Then it’s the Phillies and Cubs above them. These are not scary teams to me: ▫️The Cardinals have just a +6 run differential and we’ve scored 87 more runs than them on the season. We won’t be playing them head-to-head until last August, but they were 10-13 heading into the break. They do have a fairly soft schedule, so I’m counting on the curse of the Home Run Derby to render Jordan Walker a non-threat. In truth, I know these turds will linger like the diarrhea virus. I really hate the Crads. ▫️The Marlins are probably the most challenging of the teams in front of us. They have an excellent rotation headed by Max Meyer and Sandy Alcantara, and I feel haunted by our series loss to them earlier this season. They are also a team of platoons with a tougher schedule through mid-August. I look forward to taking them on again Aug. 11-13 and crushing their dreams. ▫️The Phillies are such an anomaly. To be ten games over .500 at 54-44 but with a -13 run differential is some sort of sorcery. They just lost Brad Keller and have profound lineup needs. Their system is generally regarded as bottom tier, so unless they look to move top prospects RHP Gage Wood and SS Aidan Miller, which would be pretty stupid, I don’t see them retooling easily. They are setup for a huge collapse. Pass the dip. ▫️Finally, we have the Cubs who have been sitting at the top of the wild card standings pretty much all season. The Cubs got off to a fast start and have been coasting all season. Since May 1, they are 34-30, just one game ahead of the Pirates’ 33-31 pace over the same timeframe. They have the third-hardest strength of schedule in the second half, but I expect more .500 ball from them. The Pirates showed who they were going 14-10 since June 15 punctuated by the three-game sweep of the first place Brewers before the break. But at the same time, the team has yet to go on any sort of extended winning streak. That can change as they start the second half on the road against the Guardians and Yankees. Four narratives I’m tracking at the start of the second half: -- The emergence of Esmerlyn Valdez was the highlight of the last month. Following the break, I’d like to see him pick up where he left off with a home run (or three) in the Guardians series just to allay any concerns. There has been a lot of "but what if..." amongst fans about his potential cooling off. Not going to happen. -- A significant trade to bring in a closer, a starter, or both before the end of the Guardians series would be a welcomed relief. Entering the Yankees series with Bubba Chandler and Mitch Keller set to go is not how I hope we enter the Big Apple. And what role will Carmen Mlodzinski have, or is he trade fodder as we've predicted in this column? The next two weeks, man! 🔥 -- In 13 appearances since the beginning of June, Gregory Soto has an 8.76 ERA. Can we trust handing him the ball in the second half? He was nails through the end of May. It would be great to get him back as a reliable weapon. I'm hopeful his break was a good one, full of positive mental health and frozen vegetables. -- What impact will Spencer Horwitz and Endy Rodriguez have returning to the lineup? Horwitz has been the second best hitter this season while Endy rejoins a true platoon with a surging Henry Davis. This already Herculean lineup has real reinforcements on the way. The Bottom Line 📌 I mean, come on people. If you can't get excited about the Pirates in the second half, I don't know what to tell you. We are typically looking to the NFL schedule around this time, and instead every Pirates game is a must-see attraction. I've already gone on record saying we will make the playoffs as a wild card team. Getting (most) everybody back healthy (pouring one out for KG) will be such a jolt. And if Ben Cherington makes a splashy trade for bullpen relief or a starter (or both). I mean, Gawd DAMN! There's been a lot of restlessness across the fanbase this week. It's time to set that all aside and pour positive energy into willing this team to a fast second-half start. A sweep of the Indi-, errr, Guardians, would be a great way to kick things off. I'm in an all-day retreat today, so I'm going to miss the build up. But I look forward to seeing you all tonight. #letsgobucs #wildcardbuccos

Oneil Cruz should not be off the table in trade discussions. The Pirates have become the best offense in the sport since Cruz got injured last month, and Jake Mangum has out-performed him in center field. I wouldn't actively look to move him, but would for the perfect return.

The Statcast Battle: Jake Mangum vs. Oneil Cruz It’s been fun, and maybe a little weird, watching advanced metrics be embraced by the armchair crowd. Gone are the days when a position player would be judged on batting average or RBIs alone, or a pitcher on wins and losses. Now we have people who can barely form cogent written sentences comparing the wRC+ and WAR of two players to make their point. It’s certainly an evolution of online discourse. We can thank the ubiquity of platforms like Baseball Savant and Fangraphs for making it so easy to slice and dice metrics for evaluation. We’ve never had so much free access to analytics to fuel our fandom. Want to know how Bryan Reynolds performed in June against off-speed offerings? There’s a tool for that. Interested in comparing Paul Skenes’ velocity from game-to-game, or even pitch-to-pitch? It’s as effortless as ordering a pizza. And we owe much of it to MLB itself, which made a significant investment (estimated in the tens of millions of dollars) to not just install the equipment needed to measure it all, but also to make all that data available to schmoes like you and me. The Statcast Revolution Statcast was such a gift to the baseball fan and expert alike when it premiered in 2015. The system combines high-definition cameras with Doppler radar embedded at major league ballparks to track the precise location of the ball and every player on the field. Over time, its capabilities have expanded to capture advanced measurements such as bat speed, sprint speed and three-dimensional movement. The Automated Ball-Strike (ABS) Challenge System is powered by the same Hawk-Eye camera technology that drives Statcast. This leveling-up of output and outcome data means virtually everything about the sport can be quantified, analyzed and cross-tabbed. But unfortunately, these advanced metrics can be easily misinterpreted. I’ve flirted in the past with a series on how to use these tools because I think the data is often misunderstood or simply dumbed down by people unfamiliar with what the data means. Statcast: More Than Just Shapes and Colors Case in point, Jake Mangum and Oneil Cruz’s Statcast profiles -- specifically their percentile rankings charts -- have become a fun comparison for those who aim to make a point about how great they perceive Cruz to be. Cruz has long had the sort of Statcast profile to dream on. His incredible bat speed, exit velocity, hard-hit %, arm strength and sprint speed create red all over the percentile rankings chart. But these specific data points are not the outcome data that matter most; they describe the quality of baseball actions, but don’t tell you whether it results in a hit, run or out. The data in the percentile rankings chart that outline metrics that show up in a box score are xwOBA, xBA, xSLG, Chase%, Whiff%, and K%. This is outcome data from the player’s swings at the plate. All the rest describes the quality of those interactions. So while Cruz has long had strongly red, high-percentile rankings across much of his Statcast profile since he debuted, he has historically underperformed in the categories that really matter. That is, until this year, buoyed by a blazing hot start in his first 16 games of the season. The Slap Hitter Explained By comparison, Jake Mangum is a throw-back to a kind of hitter that has largely disappeared from baseball. The “slap hitter” is defined as a position player who combines speed and strong contact to produce a high batting average, typically at the top of the lineup. This profile also often includes strong defense. The very best version of this profile over the last 20 years was Ichiro Suzuki, a Hall of Fame outfielder who exemplifies this combination of slap hitting, speed and defense. Statcast wasn’t around when Ichiro was at his height, but I suspect his profile would have looked a lot like Mangum’s. It was characterized by modest average exit velocity, low barrel rate and hard-hit rate, but always with some of the strongest chase %, whiff % and K % in the sport. And, of course, a high xBA. These types of hitters make strong contact and rarely strike-out. Another good example from the Statcast era is Dee Strange-Gordon, whose 2015 season is worth a look: baseballsavant.mlb.com/savant-player/… That was the year he had 205 hits, batted .333 and had 58 stolen bases. And his percentile rankings chart looks a lot like Mangum’s. Fangraphs had a great article in early 2025, calling Mangum a "grinder" and "freakishly talented contact hitter who hits the ball on the ground and to all fields." My favorite line: "He’s like a time traveler from 1941." It's definitely worth a read: blogs.fangraphs.com/jake-mangum-is… I personally feel every lineup benefits from a hitter like this. Nick Gonzalez has a lot of this profile himself (go check out his Statcast percentile rankings), and I could see a recipe for success having Gonzalez and Mangum, one each in the top and bottom of the lineup, surrounded by other run producers. The Bottom Line 📌 The other day I noted Jake Mangum was out-performing Cruz since he went out on June 10, and it elicited some strongly negative feedback. Mangum since June 10 (29 games): 117 PA, .343/.393/.454. (.847 OPS), 15% K rate Cruz from April 14-June 7 (48 games): 213 PA, .234/.324/.415 (.739 OPS), 36% K rate Note that Mangum is actually out-slugging Cruz pretty substantially, this despite not having a HR profile. In reality, Cruz had an amazing first 16 games of the season, and then reverted to his career norms for two months before going out: Cruz Career 2021-2026 (443 games) 1836 PA, .237/.315/.432 (.747 OPS), 32% K rate I personally feel that this is who he is, and it isn't a strong enough offensive profile to overcome his abysmal showing in the field. I've been on the bandwagon that expected him to breakout at some point, but I don't think he is or will. Others disagree, and are will to wait for the blessed day when it all comes together. Still others think that has already happened, and that this is a profile worth championing. "Why ignore the first 16 games," they say, as they themselves use segmented analysis of recent data to point to trends they like to see. Many of these Cruz fans are a rowdy bunch, shouting down those who disagree with them and calling this analysis trash. They tend to worship the longball and have reverted back to using RBIs as a performance metric. They are not nor have ever been the readership for The Early Shift. Thank God. They kind of suck as a group. Still, this is my final comment on the Cruz-Mangum debate. I've said my piece, and am happy to move on to other topics. Let the kids keep playing in the Statcast sandbox, arranging the shapes and colors until they tell the story they want to hear.

MLB Trade Deadline Misconceptions: A Treatise Sometimes it’s good to rock the boat a bit to see what unexplored beliefs exist just below the surface of the fan-iverse. Just when you think everyone largely thinks the same things, a presented concept can serve as a dividing line -- a real us-vs-them moment. I certainly got more than I bargained for on Sunday with the suggestion that the Pirates trade Oneil Cruz, in my estimation a very incomplete player who could solve a lot of our current deltas through a swap. The vitriol that suggestion created surprised even me. Many of the casuals who write their names in crayon called me ugly words and pledged their allegiance to Cruz. But also, surprisingly, a number of people whose baseball views I respect took umbrage with the concept as well. It was glorious. Mixing it up and getting people declaring their views, defending their suppositions… that’s what gets me excited. No one grows from saying ditto on everything. I think it’s sad that some people decided to unfollow me as a result of voicing a baseball opinion. But then, if that was their reaction, it probably isn’t much of a loss. #weaksauce The Unwritten Rules of the Trade Deadline One of the stranger things people said was that “the trade deadline is only for prospect deals.” The premise of my post was the opportunity to trade with a team that may not see themselves as traditionally “selling,” swapping an MLB player we might have a surplus of for another team’s MLB player that fills our needs, and vice versa. These people seem convinced that a trade like this simply shouldn’t, or even can’t, be considered at the trade deadline. “That sort of trade is only for the offseason.” Not arguing that trades like this are less likely, or less common as a result of the traditional dynamics -- instead, they actually believe it’s verboten. And that got me wondering why someone would think that way. The Traditional Approach I get that it is less common. Teams that are classically “selling” most often have a losing record, are moving on from a player on a expiring contract, and accept prospects in return because that team has no immediate need for major league talent. I understand that this is the dominant structure. But does that mean every trade must represent that dynamic? What about in a season like 2026, when there are only 7 teams officially functioning as sellers, with 23 other teams all trying to improve. The competitive nature of this season is becoming more common as three wild cards in each league means there are 12 playoff slots for 30 teams. If you are within 4-5 games at the trade deadline, you may be unlikely to sell. That creates a sellers market, which jacks up the cost of what might be substandard talent. Think about it: if you’re relegated to targeting players from losing clubs, it stands to reason that their talent may not be the best available. And yet, 22 other teams are all competing with you for the same warmed-over leftovers, like closing time at the proverbial pub. An Alternative Approach By offering MLB talent, a team like the Pirates can open up a different set of trading partners that either might still be competing for the playoffs, or see themselves as close to competing and wanting tested talent for next year. Not only isn’t this crazy, but it happens fairly regularly. I’ll get to that below, but first, I’ll attempt to understand why some might think this is an unlikely route: 1. The Surplus Conundrum - It requires two teams to acknowledge having a surplus of something. That may seem less common. A playoff-bound team probably has one starting catcher, or one quality center fielder or closer. But with injuries creating opportunities for bench players, it isn’t that uncommon to have depth that might be worth more to another team than sitting on their own bench. Or, that bench talent can replace regular talent, making it expendable. 2. The Opportunity Cost - The real difficult thing for some, it requires parting with a player who is producing whilst in the midst of a playoff run. No one wants a dud like Marcell Ozuna. A team has to be willing to take on the risk of parting with a producer. For #2, it appears that some believe that kind of risk is only for the offseason, before you know whether your team is going to be winning or not. It seems a weird psychological thing for some, that as soon as you’re succeeding, you have to hoard all the talent you have “because you just never know.” But it’s all just measured risk, no matter what time of year it happens. That’s just a scarcity mindset talking. Examples of Deadline Trades Like This Trades of MLB talent on both sides happen during the trade deadline with regularity. Typically 1-2 each season. Below are three recent examples akin to an Oneil Cruz-for-Mason Miller swap: Padres acquire Josh Hader from Brewers for Taylor Rogers (2022) The Padres acquired All-Star closer Josh Hader for closer Taylor Rogers, major-league pitcher Dinelson Lamet and two prospects. The Brewers were leading the NL Central and sought to replace Hader with Rogers, who had 28 saves at the time, while also converting Hader’s remaining control into longer-term assets. Cubs acquire Isaac Paredes from Rays for Christopher Morel (2024) The Cubs, who were in last place, got All-Star 3B Isaac Paredes for struggling major-league slugger Christopher Morel and pitchers Hunter Bigge and Ty Johnson. The Cubs desired an everyday third baseman, while Tampa Bay viewed Morel as a younger, higher-upside power hitter. The Rays, who were in the hunt for the wild card, took a gamble with the goal to ‘win now’ while also retooling. Cardinals get Jordan Montgomery from Yankees for Harrison Bader (2022) This one is a clear 1:1 example: the Cardinals acquired SP Jordan Montgomery in exchange for Gold Glove CF Harrison Bader. The Cardinals needed rotation help, the Yankees wanted a premium defensive center fielder. Both teams were the eventual winners of their respective divisions. This one is about as clear cut of an example of what Oneil Cruz for Mason Miller would look like. These are just some strong, recent examples. There are many others. The Bottom Line 📌 There were plenty of people who also just really prize Cruz, a miserable outfielder without a natural defensive position who strikes out 37% of the time. These folks love them some tape measure home runs, and dream on his incredible Statcast profile, and that’s totally fine. Disagreeing about the value of a player is what X exists to facilitate. I don’t like him, but you like him, fantastic. We can state our cases, get a little heated, and call it a day. Tomorrow we’ll cheer for Esmerlyn together. But this unfounded opinion that some trades simply can’t or shouldn’t happen because it’s the wrong time of year? Yeah, that’s not at all supported by anything but errant “conventional wisdom.” And that’s what The Early Shift is about -- exploring the unexamined fallacies. Go read the values statements in the FAQ. It’s about the courage to say the unpopular thing, even when it means conventional thinkers take their ball and go home as a result. #letsgobucs

Second-Half Improvements the Pirates Need to Make If the Pirates are to make this season mean something, the team will need to make the playoffs. Lost in all the talk of the incredible offensive output this season that has them topping many statistical categories is how they are performing in other aspects of the game. And given their 50-47 record, you can guess that they have some room for improvement. As important as offense is, it isn’t the only ingredient to create a successful baseball team. In the second half, the Pirates have some work to do to elevate their game and notch more victories in the win column. A More Reliable Bullpen It’s been the albatross around the team’s neck, with 16 blown saves and a bottom-third showing in xERA (22nd), BB/9 (26th), and LOB% (29th), with the team in the bottom-half in every other relevant statistic. Beyond what the data tells us, it’s the existential dread fans have when a reliever comes into a close game. There is not a single reliever around whom there is much confidence with the exception of Carmen Mlodzinski, who comes into every fourth game whether he is needed or not. In the second half, the bullpen needs to substantially improve. Some of that is through turnover, with additional arms secured through trades (plural). That means adding at least two quality leverage arms to the bullpen. The rest of the improvement is a function of the tightening up of guys we know will still be there -- Gregory Soto, Mason Montgomery, and Yohan Ramirez -- they will need to be more dependable moving forward. Better Defense Not surprisingly, most of the teams leading their respective divisions have some of the best defense in baseball. By Team DRS: Dodgers (54-2nd), Rays (52-3rd), Atlanta (40-5th), Milwaukee (26-8th). The Pirates are 22nd in baseball with a -2 DRS headlined by Oneil Cruz (-10), Nick Gonzalez (-9), Ryan O’Hearn (-5), Endy Rodriguez (-5), and Spencer Horwitz (-4). On the plus side are some surprising names: Brandon Lowe (+7), Bryan Reynolds (+4) and, of course, Henry Davis (+4). The best way to improve the defense would be to minimize the negative impacts of Cruz in CF somehow. Some advocate for Cruz as DH, but then that makes it difficult to get both O’Hearn and Horwitz into the lineup. The same goes for Gonzales at 3B, which is more difficult to solve. Some amount of drop-off in defense in exchange for offense can be defended, but some (not all) of the reversion of the Pirates pitching overall is attributed to poor defense at key positions. Even just average defense in CF and 3B would catapult the Pirates into a top-ten defense. Starting Pitching That Goes Deeper Into Games For all the focus on individual performances, as a whole, Pirates starters are performing well. They are top ten in xERA (3.92-7th), K/9 (9.02-7th), and WAR (9.8-5th). These are marks not far off last year, and in some cases, exceeding the 2025 squad. Where the team stands to improve, and offer a reprieve for the reliance on the bullpen, is in innings per start. The 2026 rotation has pitched 497 innings in 97 starts, good for a little over 5 innings per start. That’s good for 13th in baseball. This is where the negative impact of new pitching philosophies are most being felt, as more foul balls lead to more pitches per inning and shorter exits. We need to see more 6+ inning performances in the second half, which might be difficult as exhaustion will start to be more of a challenge. The Bottom Line 📌 I am a huge fan of this offense and what it unlocks for the Pirates both now and in the future. Double-digit runs scored, which we’ve done 12 times already this year, cover up for a lot of mistakes elsewhere. But if we want to be a team that not only makes the playoffs but goes deep into them, we need to improve in the other facets of the game. Few teams win it all with the sort of bullpen and fielding challenges we have. If they tighten it all up in the second half, we have a real shot at this. #letsgobucs

@Jason_Shetler Since June 10, the day Oneil Cruz went on the IL, the Pirates have scored 180 runs in 30 games. It is exactly 6.0 runs per game.

Oneil Cruz is a Horrible Centerfielder and Should Be Traded Here’s some data: ▫️ From April 14th, the 17th game of the season, through June 10 when Cruz went out, he put up a .739 OPS in 48 games: .234 AVG, .324 OBP, and .415 SLG. He also struck out 78 times in 213 PA, a rate of 36.6%. He did hit 9 home runs. ▫️The worst centerfielder in baseball by a country mile is Oneil Cruz. He has a -10 DRS in just over 500 innings this season, which is good for 29th out of 30 CF with at least 300 innings there. The Marlins’ Jakob Marsee is 30th with a -11 DRS, but he’s done that in 770 innings, 270 more than Cruz. Oneil Cruz had a helluva first couple weeks of the season, and then fell off and went out injured. In the interim, from June 10 through yesterday, Jake Mangum had an OPS of .847 and has a +2 DRS in the outfield this season in the same number of innings (roughly 500). Perhaps not surprisingly given the data above, the Pirates have actually been scoring more runs per game with Cruz out. In fact, a full run more. I would argue that is actually because Cruz is not in the lineup. He was replaced by a better player in Mangum, who plays better defense in centerfield and is more consistent. Unlike Sir Whiffs-a-lot, Mangum has a 16.6% K rate, more than half of Cruz. By just about every measure, Jake Mangum has outperformed Oneil Cruz in 2026. Except for the first 16 games of the season. I think Ben Cherington could easily trade Cruz and the team would be improved going forward.