Kazambo

@his_eminence_j Excellent insights! Thank you.

If there’s one thing you can take from following my account this week, it is: please respect the lag effect. This war in Iran and the continued stranglehold on our oil isn’t affecting markets yet because we’re not seeing it reflected yet in corporate profits (transportation is starting to). In economies as large as ours, changes to input variables in the economy do not cause an impact right away. Typically, the rule in the United States is you will see the effects of variable changes like interest rates or elevated energy prices, or new tax laws, over a period of 9 to 12 months. This is why most of us started noticing an uptick a producer prices as early as January – they were nine months from the start of Trump’s tariffs. The President was very foolish, six weeks after imposing tariffs last year, when he bragged that tariffs did not raise prices. Of course they didn’t. The lag effect is longer than that. With a business degree from Wharton, he knew better. He knows what the lag effect is. He just assumed you wouldn’t. So we haven’t even seen the impact of this Iran conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in everyday prices yet. We’ll see that right around Election Day. This is another reason why the President’s actions, and his inability to prosecute the war to a conclusion quickly, will be his downfall. To use a timely analogy, he is throwing gasoline on a stagflationary fire. I say stagflation because the fourth quarter GDP, originally bragged at being around 4 1/2% (unrealistically high for an economy as big as ours) ended up 0.5% after revisions, and more than that was just a runaround of $100 billion of revenue between six AI companies. So we had negative GDP, realistically, in Q4. Q1 2026 is yet to be seen, but even if that number comes out good initially, you can certainly expect similar downward revisions. I believe we entered a recessionary cycle in December 2025. This was after pretty much a “rolling recession“ that started in 2022, in almost every sector except technology. So we have rapidly reducing economic output and jobs drying up, combined with an uptick in prices related to the lag effect from tariffs imposed last year, at exactly the same time that the President is taking new actions that will directly raise prices again on the American consumer. And it will coalesce at approximately election day. The markets will figure this out eventually, and then likely overcorrect to the downside by late summer. The correction, particularly in tech, is long overdue. We are already seeing many tech companies underperforming market expectations. Is it the companies’ fault? Partly, because they were hyping to get investors interested. But it’s the market that ran the indexes up to astronomically unjustifiable highs. That will now correct. It will because it has to, just like housing. Every bubble must break. Reversion to the mean is an axiom. I’m not selling a coaching service or a newsletter or even advertising my own firm with this account. I’m investing the time, anonymously, to provide 20+ years of market and economic insight. But I’m also studying this ecosphere and learning where the grift is, where the bullshit lies, and how to help you avoid it. You won’t agree with everything that I say, because often our vantage points are different. Certainly they are different from your average “Furu“ on here, earning money from your cognitive biases. I’m thinking and posting about months ahead of time usually. I’m not a day-trader on this account. I’m not trying to tell you how to make a buck today. I’m trying to tell you how to protect your wealth during large events over which none of us have any control. Bottom line: respect the lag. Never forget it working under the hood. Markets forget it, every day.

@NickTimiraos Good for Powell! This also means that Stephan-the-shill Miran's embarrassing tenure is over.

Powell's public comments last week suggest his decision to stay isn't just about tying off loose ends of the criminal investigation (IG report, litigation of the subpoena ruling.) It's contingent on the entire atmosphere of pressure on the Fed changing. That's a higher bar.

Calling people names doesn’t change the economic data. The Fed cut rates after inflation had fallen substantially from its peak, growth was slowing and labor markets were cooling. You can disagree with the decision, but pretending every move you dislike is election interference isn't a serious argument.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos You're anIDIOT. He wasn't "independent" when he lowered the rate under senile ole Joe Bribem before the election.

Why Jay Powell stayed wsj.com/economy/centra…

The Fed has a dual mandate, and it primarily evaluates inflation through PCE, not CPI. At the time of the last rate cuts (under Biden and Trump), inflation was cooling, hiring was slowing, unemployment was drifting higher, and recession risks were rising. It’s a data-dependent balancing act, not a political agenda.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos Why did the the “fed” cut rates multiple times at way higher core CPI?

Higher rates increase borrowing costs for businesses—that’s Econ 101. If you took Econ 201 you'd understand that the goal of rate hikes isn’t to make borrowing cheaper; it’s to slow demand, cool spending, and bring inflation down over time. That’s why the Fed raises rates during inflationary periods in the first place. You’re describing one side effect of tighter policy and treating it like the entire inflation equation... that's Fox economics.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos Bidens policies created it or contributed greatly to inflation that it was impossible for those reasons to fight inflation by the simple raising of rates. It contributed to inflation. Do you understand how small or large businesses operate? Loans at higher rates equal what???

@TrumpDailyPosts And the war is costing Americans $1.2-1.5 billion per day in increased gas prices alone! You created this mess... you need to get us out NOW!

Iran is losing over $500 million a day in lost oil revenue

The Fed (not Powell alone) raised rates because inflation was already running hot, they didn't create it. Higher rates can slow growth, but they are not the cause of inflation. If anything, the Fed was criticized for waiting too long to tighten in the first place. It's the Fed - and not Powell or Warsh - who make rate decisions. The Fed is not raising rates, but giving a heads-up of direction if the war and inflation continue.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos Powell followed along like bidens puppy dog making excuses for bidens inflationary policies. Raising interest rates in today's complex economy actually can and did contribute to inflation as higher borrowing costs hurt businesses and consumers.

@miklo1927 @NickTimiraos Rates weren't cut at 6% inflation, and relying on 'woke' as a catch-all for policies you don't like isn't analysis. The Fed (not Powell alone) manages inflation and financial stability... not Trump's - or any president's - agenda.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos He lowered rates during an election year while inflation sat around 6%, but he won’t do it at 3% under Trump. He another woke lunatic trying to derail the Trump economy.

@retirenow59 @NickTimiraos Actually, looking at the data, Powell’s policy decisions align with inflation cooling and the economy slowing, rather than election timing. Blaming the Fed for energy or supply chain shocks or fiscal policy is just ignoring how the economy actually works.

@The_Kazambo @NickTimiraos Opposite dummy He chased bidens inflationary policies for 4 years then lowered rates in the election year. He made excuses for bidens backward policies. Where did 2 billion go under Powell? Raising and lowering rates is the Fed's independence? Dummies

@WhiteHouse They keep calling your bluff. At some point you need an actual Plan B.

"I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years..." - President Donald J. Trump

@RapidResponse47 Most of this is AI-related, but thanks to Trump's efforts, we’ll need financing plans to buy sneakers and T-shirts made in the U.S.

American manufacturing is BACK under President Trump — with brand new data showing the manufacturing sector expanding for the fourth straight month.

@ThePatriotOasis He needs to take a lot of timed off to give the country a chance to recover..

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump arrives at yet ANOTHER event in Florida President Trump does not take a day off, he’s consistently working!

@RapidResponse47 @POTUS Good thing you "obliterated" Iran's capability to make a nuclear bomb during Operation Midnight Hammer, right?.... Right?!

.@POTUS: "You cannot give Iran a nuclear weapon — because they would use it on a place called Israel very quickly, and they would use it in the Middle East, and they would use it in Europe, and we'd be next. And it's NOT going to happen."

@ThePatriotOasis Your "GOLDEN AGE" feels more like a golden shower on America. Stop the gaslighting and start paying attention to what everybody is saying.

🔥🚨 PRESIDENT TRUMP: "Our country is hot again. We have a great country again, we're respected as a country again!" "This is the GOLDEN AGE of America!" 🇺🇸

@MikeNellis The stock market is at an all time high... That's what really matters to people, right?

Obviously, people are angry with Trump over high prices, but every time he lies about how well the economy is doing, his numbers dip even more. Even just acknowledging how hard it is to get by right now would earn him *some* goodwill, but he can’t even do that.

@ThePatriotOasis Either the boys have a stake in Spirit or he's spent too much time with Mamdani.

🚨 BREAKING: Presdient Trump reveals that his administration has given Spirit Airlines its FINAL PROPOSAL to bail out the Airline. "We are looking at it—we will do it if it's a GOOD DEAL!" "I'd like to save the JOBS! We will have an announcement later today. We gave them our FINAL PROPOSAL!"

@YourAnonNews The U.S. will be lucky # 7.

How many bankruptcies does he have under his belt now?

@WhiteHouse Can't you sit on your hands for one day without starting a war or changing the rules again?

"I will be increasing Tariffs charged to the European Union for Cars and Trucks coming into the United States. The Tariff will be increased to 25%. It is fully understood and agreed that, if they produce Cars and Trucks in U.S.A. Plants, there will be NO TARIFF." - President Donald J. Trump 🇺🇸

@RpsAgainstTrump Hopefully this unqualified clown leaves enough budget for his one-way trip to The Hague.

The real cost of the Iran war is closer to $50 billion, U.S. officials told CBS News, about double the $25 billion the Pentagon cited to Congress this week