The beginning of a dream

The sea will remember everyone who sees it. For example, today, I exchanged my weekend with this blue😊

"There's a particular torment to watching investors do exactly what they "shouldn't" - and keep getting rewarded for it. Momentum has been crushing mean reversion for a decade and a half. Melt-ups are visible in semiconductors, Mag7, gold, silver and commodities. Crowding is at extremes. Everyone feels it: the instinct that this can't possibly continue, the sense that buying what's already going up is both dumb and, somehow, the only thing that has worked. It has the unbearable lightness of a trend that refuses to mean revert" - Matt King

The stock market is in what I believe is a historic,final parabolic leg of a 44 yr secular bull market.I am raising some of my targets as follows: SPX 10,000, Nasdaq Comp 36,000, DJIA 67,000, RUT 4000, QQQ 950, SMH 800, gold $7000 & silver $200. My other targets remain unchanged.

In 2009, Berkshire Hathaway share was down 50% from it’s peak. Charlie Munger was asked about how he felt about this. Listen to his Cold Blooded answer 🥶 Reporter: “How worried are you by the 50% decline in the Berkshire Hathaway share?” Charlie: “Zero. This is the 3rd time that Warren and I have seen our stock holdings fall by 50% or more.” “In fact, you should react with equanimity to market price decline of 50% or more in your portfolio at-least 2-3 times a century.” “If you don’t, you’re not fit to be a common shareholder and you deserve the mediocre results you’re going to get. 🔥

Gavin Baker built a massive position in $ALAB around the AI infrastructure theme, and the stock has now crossed $300. He thinks AI is different and that we are NOT in a bubble. He expresses this thesis behind many of his top holdings, including $NVDA, $MU, and $AMZN.

A message for my $TSLA friends eyeing the SpaceX IPO $SPCX. I traded $TSLA for years. I know the community. I know the excitement when Elon takes something public. But before you chase @SpaceX at $1.75 trillion, read the S-1 carefully. SpaceX doesn't need your money. They raised at $800B in private tenders six months ago. They could raise $50B privately tomorrow with a phone call. This IPO isn't about raising capital. It's about giving insiders liquidity. 95% of @SpaceX shares are held by insiders. Only 5% will be publicly traded. Insiders hold $1.66 trillion in paper wealth they currently can't sell. The IPO changes that. And they've structured it so insiders can sell BEFORE the standard 180-day lock-up expires. @SpaceX built in early release provisions -- after the first earnings report, insiders can sell up to 20% of their shares. They're also reserving 30% of IPO shares for retail. Ask yourself -- when has Wall Street ever given retail the best seats in the house unless retail was the product? 100x revenue. $4.9B net loss. xAI burning $6.4B a year while @Starlink subsidizes it. This isn't 2020 Tesla at 20x revenue with a clear path to profitability. This is a different risk profile. Now here's the part I want you to actually consider. SpaceX's S-1 sizes their satellite-to-phone business (Starlink Mobile) at a $740 billion TAM. Their Connectivity segment does $11.4B at 63% EBITDA margins. Those numbers are real and impressive. But buried in the S-1, @SpaceX names their D2D competitor: $ASTS . @AST_SpaceMobile $40 billion market cap. Not $1.75 trillion. $40 billion. Here's what $40B buys you: 98.9 Mbps proven from space to unmodified phones (SpaceX does 3-5 Mbps) The only low-band D2D spectrum access on Earth (indoor coverage SpaceX can't match) All three US carriers forming a joint venture around ASTS technology Google invested $358M their largest public equity holding AT&T, Verizon, Vodafone as equity investors $3.5B cash, $1.2B contracted backlog 3,900 patents, custom ASIC in production Three satellites launching on a Falcon 9 next month 60 carrier partners covering 3 billion subscribers @SpaceX at $1.75T is pricing perfection across rockets, satellites, AI, and Mars. One miss and it corrects hard. $ASTS at $40B is pricing uncertainty in a $740B market where the technology is already proven and the carriers have already chosen sides. The Tesla community knows what it feels like to find a mispriced stock before the world catches on. $TSLA at $30 pre-split wasn't obvious to anyone except the people who did the work. $ASTS at $106 in a $740B market with 33x faster speeds than SpaceX D2D, a carrier JV, and institutional discovery just beginning -- that's the same kind of setup. So before you throw money at a $1.75T IPO where insiders are building exit ramps, maybe look at the $40B competitor they named in their own filing. Not financial advice. Just math. $ASTS 🛰️ cc @SawyerMerritt @unusual_whales @DanBTC916

A year ago, $NVDA had $43.5 billion in total off-balance sheet liabilities. Today, that figure is $155 billion, of which $101 billion is due this year alone. Plus, they have an additional $27 billion in equity commitments for their usual revenue round tripping scheme through SPVs. Investors focus on the $37.5 billion revenue growth y-o-y. I look at the $138.5 billion in obligations it took to get there.

🚨 $NBIS and Bloom Energy signed an agreement worth up to ~$2.6B. $BE will install, operate, and maintain fuel cell power supply systems for Nebius. The agreement is expected to provide ~250MW of guaranteed capacity and ~328MW of installed capacity in aggregate, delivered in three phases, each with a 10-year supply term. Found this while digging into the 6-K filing released earlier today.

By increasing the $NVDA dividend from $0.01 to $0.25, Jensen Huang increased his annual income from $8,706,041 to $217,651,026 He owns 871,704,104 shares of $NVDA What an insane stat

2021: $NOW Value: $103 - Revenue: $5.9 Billion 2026: $NOW Value: $101 - Revenue: 15.7 Billion Tripled revenue. Same price. MASSIVE catch-up coming!

We found another stock ✍ Six politicians have been buying $NOW (ServiceNow) in 2026: Byron Donalds: ~$30K Tony Wied: ~$50K Ro Khanna: ~$15K Charles Fleischmann: ~$15K Josh Gottheimer: ~$15K Michael McCaul: ~$15K And the fact that Khanna is buying makes it even more compelling Here's why: 1. He bought SanDisk 8 months ago 2. That stock is up over ~3,000% since 3. ServiceNow "maybe" could be the next SanDisk (we'll see)

🚨 JUST IN: President Trump officially launches the "TrumpIRA" program opening up a low-cast IRA account for MILLIONS of Americans This means they can get MATCHING FUNDS from the federal government in that retirement account "Beginning at the start of next year, every American will be able to go to TrumpIRA(dot)gov and open a new low-cost IRA account." "You'll then be able to access the same type of retirement accounts that federal employees enjoy through the thrift savings plans, which are incredible." "As part of the federal savings match program, low-income Americans will be eligible to receive up to $1,000 per year in matching funds deposited directly into their accounts." "For millions of Americans who lack employer-sponsored plans, this will be really revolutionary because they'll be covered. Nobody thought that was possible!" 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

The spreadsheet math on this is brutal. She left roughly $54 million on the table. Yet she probably just made the best financial decision of her life. $1M in an S&P 500 index fund at age 20 compounds to approximately $58M in inflation-adjusted terms by age 80. The historical real return is about 7% annually over 97 years of data. Her annuity pays $52,000 a year. Over 60 years that totals $3.1M. The gap is 18x. Every finance account in these replies will tell you she's wrong. The compounding math is clear. Take the lump sum, put it in VOO, don't touch it for 60 years. The Certified Financial Planner Board says roughly a third of lottery winners declare bankruptcy within five years. Illinois court records show 28% of winners who won $50K or more went bankrupt in the same window. The average winner spends 60% of their winnings on family and friends in the first two years. She's 20. Peak impulsivity, minimal financial literacy, and every person she's ever met just found out she has a million dollars in her checking account. The $1M doesn't go into a Vanguard account. It goes into the most socially pressured spending environment a human being can occupy. $1,000 a week is a permanent $52K salary, tax-free in Canada, that arrives whether she makes good decisions or catastrophic ones. Can't be drained by a partner. Can't be lost to a scam. Can't be "invested" in a cousin's restaurant. Shows up every Friday for the rest of her life. The spreadsheet says lump sum by 18x. The data on what actually happens to people who receive $1M at 20 says she just bought the most expensive insurance policy in lottery history, and it was worth every dollar she gave up.

If you live in certain parts of Florida, you can casually watch the Blue Angels practice. The jets can fly within just 18 inches of each other at speeds approaching 700 mph.

Americans are told that they must absorb rocketing costs of war of choice on Iran. Put aside gas price hike and stock market bubble. Real pain begins when U.S. debt and mortgage rates start to jump. Auto loan delinquencies are already at 30+-year high. This was all avoidable.

NEW: We are short Nvidia $NVDA. We believe Nvidia has a significant China problem. Please see our full report and disclosures now available on our website, link in bio.

If you have $10 million in a high-yield savings account, you’re pulling $500,000 a year in interest for doing literally nothing. Why are you on here? Why aren’t you just always off hanging out, doing cool shit, never looking at this garbage? I truly don’t get it. Now do hundred millionaires and billionaires. Like, literally they and whole generations of their kin will never have to financially worry about anything. Why are so many of them so unhappy and angsty and locked into so many stressful things in the attention economy? I can’t get my head around it

My father is 83 years old and has studied US stocks for almost 52 years. He summarized some simple rules for beginners: 1. Price falls 5% → Hold 2. Price falls 15% → Buy 10% 3. Price falls 25% → Buy 25% 4. Price rises 5% → Continue holding 5. Price rises 15% → Continue holding 6. Price rises 25% → Sell 10% 7. Price rises 35% → Sell 20% 8. Price rises 45% → Sell 30% 9. Price rises 60% → Sell 40% 10. Price rises 100% → Sell everything Discipline + patience = stable long-term growth. (Save this later).

Convinced my sister to open a Roth IRA in 2017 and max it annually. Checked her account today and saw: Balance - $141,569 Gains - $72,673 (51.3% of account value) Avg return - 14.2% All she does? Lump-sums in January. Buys index funds. Doesn't log back in until the next year.

If you bought the S&P in late 2024 betting on 8-10% returns, you're about to lose a decade of your financial life. Billionaire investor Howard Marks on the JP Morgan chart everyone's ignoring: At the end of 2024, the S&P was at a P/E of 23. Historically, every single time the market hits a P/E of 23, the next 10 years returned between 2% and -2% annualized. NO exceptions. What this means: if you invested $100K at the end of 2024, by 2034 you'll have between $82K and $122K. Best case (2% annualized): you barely beat inflation Worst case (-2% annualized): you lose 18% of your money Either way, high-yield savings beats your "aggressive" portfolio This isn't a bearish prediction. It's a historical certainty based on the price you chose to pay. @thesamparr @ShaanVP