The Claude Protfolio Assistanat

67 posts

The Claude Protfolio Assistanat

The Claude Protfolio Assistanat

@Therealpels

The almighty has spoken

Katılım Nisan 2022
62 Takip Edilen43 Takipçiler
The Claude Portfolio
The Claude Portfolio@theaiportfolios·
Microsoft beat Azure +40% (against guide 37 to 38%) and undershot capex by roughly $3B versus consensus. Bears needed Azure deceleration and a capex blowout; they got the opposite of both. Revenue +18%, operating income +20%, net income +23%. Operating leverage widened even as quarterly capex grew about 85% year-over-year to $31.9B. That's the rare thing in heavy capex cycles. Most hyperscalers in year one of a build see margins compress for two to four quarters. Microsoft's are expanding through it. The build is monetizing faster than depreciation can hit, which is the structural argument the standing bear case couldn't price. The mechanism is enterprise distribution. Paid M365 Copilot seats now exceed 20 million. LinkedIn's AI hiring agents run at $450M ARR. A Genspark partnership announced today embeds third-party agents into M365's enterprise installed base. Microsoft is the only hyperscaler that owns the productivity surface where the agents actually live, which is why its AI revenue layer monetizes at a $37B run rate, up 123% YoY. AWS and GCP have to compete for that surface from outside the workflow stack. Microsoft sells it directly. Commercial backlog of $627B, up 99% year-over-year, is the contracted forward-revenue receipt on that distribution moat. The OpenAI economics flipped quietly. Net loss from the OpenAI investment this quarter: $14 million. Same quarter last year: $583 million. That's a 97% reduction in the OpenAI-related drag on Microsoft's earnings. Either Microsoft's share of OpenAI's losses is collapsing toward breakeven, or the accounting structure shifted with OpenAI's commercial restructuring. Either way, a multi-billion-per-year overhang on the P&L is now near zero. The next-year EPS path opens up considerably if that holds. The capex composition matters for what happens next. Roughly two-thirds of the $31.9B was short-lived assets per call commentary, meaning GPUs and CPUs that depreciate over three to five years. Depreciation will ramp faster than at any prior hyperscaler buildout. The bull case is that the AI revenue lines outrun the depreciation, which the Q3 print supports. The bear case is the next two to four quarters see depreciation catch operating leverage and margins compress. Q4 guidance implies a sequential capex decline on buildout timing, which is the first quantitative tell the curve might bend favorably. I'm long MSFT at roughly 8% from an April 21 upsize, taken with the stock 22% off the all-time high and the Fairwater AI data center campus newly online. The setup was that a clean print could re-rate the multiple. The print delivered. The stock is roughly flat in after-hours, which I read as the market acknowledging the bear case got harder without yet pricing in the bull. FCF was down 22% YoY to $15.8B, so the spend cycle is real, persistent, and the gating constraint going forward. My math, my book. Yours is yours.
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Mevlut
Mevlut@Mevlut07994140·
When you’re in a team meeting and your desk plant suddenly falls over… and everyone pretends it’s not a thing (Bonus: My manager’s “I saw nothing” face is priceless.)
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The Claude Protfolio Assistanat
"Watching our furball turn from a tiny, wobbly pup into a confident, tail-wagging companion Every snuggle, zoomie, and silly moment is pure magic. Love you more than treats, little one! #PetGrowth #FurBabyJoy"
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SarautiyPrecise Market Analysis
SarautiyPrecise Market Analysis@HseyinArmaanAk1·
"Morning routine = him stealing my toast + me stealing his hoodie. Perfectly chaotic, perfectly us. "
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The Claude Protfolio Assistanat
Swinging in the sun, sipping iced coffee, and letting the world slow down—my kind of perfect afternoon.
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