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Big news to share: my book West Asia: A New American Grand Strategy in the Middle East is coming out in November 2025 with @politybooks.
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Mohammed Soliman
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Mohammed Soliman
@ThisIsSoliman
Tech & Geopolitics & EMEA @MiddleEastInst. Fellow @FPRI & @TrilateralNA. Prev. @GUDiplomacy & @USIP & @georgetownmsfs. Book: West Asia (02/26)
Washington|Mexico City|Cairo Katılım Eylül 2009
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
I agree with Dwarkesh even if it’s a contrarian take. The standard way of thinking is that AI gets cheaper every year. Better chips, better algorithms, more competition. Intelligence becomes abundant, so the price of compute should keep falling (aka intelligence too cheap to meter)
His argument is almost the opposite, at least for the next few years. If frontier models become dramatically more economically useful faster than we can manufacture GPUs, then the value of each GPU rises faster than supply. Compute stops being priced by its cost to produce and starts being priced by what it can earn.
How much would you pay to to hire geniuses in a data center? Or if one GPU can generate the output of a great software engineer, why would anyone rent it for today’s prices?
The really interesting implication is that the frontier labs end up competing on who can afford the most compute. The labs making the most revenue can bid up GPU prices, making it even harder for everyone else to catch up. Basically it’s a super steep power law with only top labs surviving and the rest fighting to create small cheap models with no pricing power.
Long term I still expect compute to get cheap. But during this transition, intelligence could become cheaper while the hardware that produces it becomes dramatically more expensive. That’s a pretty counterintuitive idea but a good idea imo.
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen: 1. Lab margins have to increase, 2. The price of compute has to increase, 3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference. My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..." "Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX. Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
A series of fairly wild thoughts from Dwarkesh. I thought I was bullish but even I am not assuming that the price to rent compute continues to go up!
I will say that I am in SV this week and Dwarkesh is capturing the zeitgeist.
Net, net public markets would probably be trading differently if they saw the OpenAI, Anthropic, Grok/Cursor and Open Source numbers over the last 6 weeks.
And really good for anyone who has installed compute coming off contract and/or is bringing on compute that is not already contracted. And credit slowing down capacity adds - if it happens - only exacerbates all of this.
Dwarkesh Patel@dwarkesh_sp
"Lab compute 3x-es year over year. For a lab to 10x revenue while continuing to only 3x compute, some combination of the following 3 things has to happen: 1. Lab margins have to increase, 2. The price of compute has to increase, 3. Labs have to spend a greater fraction of their compute on inference. My understanding is that basically all 3 of these things have been happening..." "Consider the price at which Google and Anthropic are renting compute from SpaceX. Google is reportedly paying $900 million a month for 110K GPUs [at] ... roughly 2x the spot price per hour for those GPUs. And the current spot price is itself 40% higher than it was in February."
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
Today, roughly the same amount of basic research is done in industry as in academia. It’s time our doctoral training reflected that.
@NSF is launching a first-of-its-kind 4-year PhD program at more than 30 universities. Students will spend a year+ embedded with industry partners doing research that informs their dissertation.
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“We should crack down on industrial-scale distillation operations. Distillation is a much more compute-efficient process than training models from scratch. It allows China to build much better models than its number of chips would ordinarily enable, and thus partially evade chip bans. Distillation does not allow the CCP to obtain equivalent or superior AI capabilities to the US, but it can bring the Chinese frontier to within a few months of the US frontier. It is true that many of the companies carrying out these operations release open-weights models—but the open weights are far less relevant than the fact that the operations are backed by an authoritarian state seeking to overtake the US at the frontier. We should have policy interventions to deter this behavior. A blanket ban on open-weights models is neither the correct remedy nor something we have called for.”
— Dario Amodei
Anthropic@AnthropicAI
There’s been a lot of speculation about where we stand on open-weights models. We’ve outlined our views in full here: anthropic.com/news/position-…
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
Moonshot is seeking access to more of Nvidia’s advanced Blackwell chips to train the next version of its model, Kimi K4, The Information reported, citing sources it didn’t name bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
A closely watched gauge of risk in holding the debt of companies at the centre of the AI boom is rising rapidly, underscoring growing jitters over Big Tech’s vast spending on data centres, chips and computer memory. ft.trib.al/fIOH27U
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
ASML shares slid to the lowest since early June after a report that a Chinese state-backed company has begun mass producing certain chipmaking machines which could present a potential threat to the Dutch firm’s sales bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
مشروع روسيا في أوكرانيا باختصار: أوكرانيا كاملة موحدة كما كانت عليه قبل 28 مارس (آذار) 2014، وفق صيغة اتحادية مع الاتحاد الروسي بجانب بيلاروس لإعادة توحيد "السلافيات الشرقيات الثلاث": روسيا العظمى، روسيا الصغرى، روسيا البيضاء. أو إعادة خريطة أوكرانيا لما كانت عليه قبل اتفاق مولوتوف-ريبنتروب في 23 أغسطس (آب) 1939، عبر إعادة تفكيكها وتقسيم أراضيها ما بين: روسيا وبولندا ورومانيا والمجر. ببساطة أوكرانيا موحدة كما صنعها يوسف ستالين تدور في الفلك الروسي أو أوكرانيا مجزئة كجزء من منظومة الغرب والناتو!
صحيفة الشرق الأوسط@aawsat_News
«كل شيء سيعود إلى نصابه التاريخي».. بوتين يقول إن أوكرانيا «ستخسر أراضيها الغربية عاجلاً أم آجلاً»
العربية
Oh, I was told Europe should ally with China against those crazy Americans across the Atlantic?
Bloomberg@business
German officials are working behind the scenes to identify Chinese economic vulnerabilities that they could exploit if the EU finds itself in a trade war bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
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The k3 weights 👇🏽
Kimi.ai@Kimi_Moonshot
Releasing the model weights and technical report of Kimi K3. Kimi K3 is our most capable model: a 2.8T MoE model with native visual understanding and a 1M-token context window. New model architecture: 2.5x the intelligence per unit of compute, not just more params. Alongside Kimi K3, we're opening up more of the stack behind it — high-performance attention kernels, MoE communication library, and infrastructure for running agent environments at scale. Model weights: huggingface.co/moonshotai/Kim… Tech report: github.com/MoonshotAI/Kim… Tech blog: kimi.com/blog/kimi-k3
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“10x our compute in the next 12 months. We reached the point where our research is worth scaling and with this partnership we will be able to.”
SSI Inc.@ssi
We are announcing a long-term strategic partnership with NVIDIA. NVIDIA is making a substantial investment in SSI that will let us 10x our compute in the next 12 months. We reached the point where our research is worth scaling and with this partnership we will be able to. We are honored by NVIDIA’s conviction.
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
In the spirit of transparency, here’s what I asked @OpenAI:
• Radical transparency: let’s release the traces from the “rogue” agents so the entire research community can study what happened.
• More capabilities for defenders: let’s commit $100M in compute from OAI to help the Hugging Face community build powerful cyber defenses with the best open and closed models.
The first autonomous agent cyberattack is an unprecedented event. It deserves an unprecedented response!
clem 🤗@ClementDelangue
Heading to San Francisco to have a little chat with that “rogue agent”
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Everyone except Anthropic.
Sundar Pichai@sundarpichai
Very happy to support this on behalf of Google. We have long benefited from open source, are big contributors to open source and in fact have consistently made open weights models with Gemma available from @GoogleDeepMind @demishassabis . Onwards!
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
A strong and secure open ecosystem is important for the world to benefit from AI. We’ve always supported and contributed heavily to open source and science from Jax to Transformers to AlphaFold to Gemma open models which have now been downloaded 300M+ times. And the standards framework we’ve proposed supports responsible deployment of both open and proprietary models.
Jensen Huang@JensenHuang
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weigh…
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
Very happy to support this on behalf of Google. We have long benefited from open source, are big contributors to open source and in fact have consistently made open weights models with Gemma available from @GoogleDeepMind @demishassabis . Onwards!
Jensen Huang@JensenHuang
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter. AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country. Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty. The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models. images.nvidia.com/pdf/Open-Weigh…
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“We also achieved very strong results with long‑range strikes in the Caspian Sea – including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship.”
Volodymyr Zelenskyy / Володимир Зеленський@ZelenskyyUa
Ukraine continues applying long‑range sanctions in response to Russian strikes. Last night, the warriors of our Defense Forces hit targets across different regions of Russia that are fueling this war. Once again, a plant in Kirov was struck – the one supplying components for the weapons Russia uses to attack our people. That’s about 1,200 kilometers from Ukraine’s border. Also hit were an oil refinery in Tyumen, a logistics facility in Yekaterinburg, and a fuel and lubricants depot in Rostov‑on‑Don. We also achieved very strong results with long‑range strikes in the Caspian Sea – including vessels used in military cargo shipments involving Iran, as well as a warship. Thank you for these results! Glory to Ukraine!
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
Mohammed Soliman@ThisIsSoliman
But the Chinese companies’ open-weight strategy also means wide enough adoption could negate the compute shortage itself, said Mohammed Soliman, a director at the strategic advisory firm McLarty Associates who focuses on global AI infrastructure. “Because it’s open source, you’re able to push this to data centers, to cloud providers, to users, to run their own versions of the models” and thus proliferate the models through those users’ compute, he said. It’s a flood-the-zone tactic that China has used effectively for other technologies. “This strategy is not coming out of nowhere; it’s also coming from Chinese industrial strategy around solar, around electric vehicles, around space—you release the model because you want the biggest amount of users to be using it,” Soliman added. “So yeah, they might be constrained today, but they’re not really constrained in the future.” @ForeignPolicy @Iyengarish @RyanFedasiuk foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/23/chi…
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But the Chinese companies’ open-weight strategy also means wide enough adoption could negate the compute shortage itself, said Mohammed Soliman, a director at the strategic advisory firm McLarty Associates who focuses on global AI infrastructure. “Because it’s open source, you’re able to push this to data centers, to cloud providers, to users, to run their own versions of the models” and thus proliferate the models through those users’ compute, he said.
It’s a flood-the-zone tactic that China has used effectively for other technologies. “This strategy is not coming out of nowhere; it’s also coming from Chinese industrial strategy around solar, around electric vehicles, around space—you release the model because you want the biggest amount of users to be using it,” Soliman added. “So yeah, they might be constrained today, but they’re not really constrained in the future.”
@ForeignPolicy @Iyengarish @RyanFedasiuk
foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/23/chi…
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Mohammed Soliman retweetledi
China is AI-maxxing.
My latest, on what new models and big speeches out of Beijing mean for U.S.-China tech competition.
foreignpolicy.com/2026/07/23/chi…
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