Thomas Tang

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Thomas Tang

Thomas Tang

@ThomasTangMI

26 years of investing privately, 13 years managing MediumInvest. Fundamental investing explained clearly. Mostly offline.

Denmark Katılım Kasım 2022
0 Takip Edilen63 Takipçiler
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Bob Mueller was one of the finest directors in the history of the FBI, transforming the bureau after 9/11 and saving countless lives. But it was his relentless commitment to the rule of law and his unwavering belief in our bedrock values that made him one of the most respected public servants of our time. Michelle and I send our condolences to Bob’s family, and everyone who knew and admired him.
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Thomas Tang
Thomas Tang@ThomasTangMI·
5 - Additionally, it looks like you are misinterpreting Shelly’s information on expected future payments, framing it as ageing receivables. The 3-6 months receivables are not aging, it is likely the youngest receivables, being recently invoice with a payment term of +90 days, consistent with a DSO of 129 days. I think these are honest mistakes and I suspect no ill intent. Q4 did contain some real negative information which should be weighed against all other relevant information about Shelly. MediumInvest own shares in Shelly.
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Thomas Tang
Thomas Tang@ThomasTangMI·
4- While I agree with @jptissot1 and @ricardog_77 on the direction of their interpretation of Shelly’s Q4, I find the DSO based on the last two quarters to much better reflect the underlying reality. Recalculating Ricardo’s and Jean’s DSO vs. what I find to be correct: Ricardo: Ricardo’s DSO of 163 days is consistent with using the real AR of 132,7 and four quarters of sales 292,9: 132,7/292,9*360=163 DSO. Jean: Jean does not explicitly state Shelly’s DSO, but he does state it is the double of Plejd’s and states Plejd’s at 95, implying a DSO of 190 days. The only way I can get to a number in that range, is if I use the high-level receivable numbers from the top of the Q4 report, including both the real AR of 132,7 and advances to suppliers of 21,1 divided by 12 months of sales. (132,7+21,1)/292,9*360=189 DSO. My take: 133 / (123+64)*182 = 129
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Thomas Tang
Thomas Tang@ThomasTangMI·
$SLYG 1 - The right way to calculate days of sales outstanding (DSO) is to compare accounts receivables (AR) with sales of the period that generated the AR. In a company with sales split relatively evenly between quarters, you can calculate DSO almost any way you like. For a company like Shelly that is growing rapidly with sales heavily concentrated in Q4, you must take care to match AR with the sales from the period that generated the AR. If you calculate DSO based on the last 4 quarters, you get a huge jump in Q4 2025 which is very alarming. If you take care to match the AR with the relevant sales period, DSO calculated on the last two quarters of sales increased much less dramatically by 13 days to 129 in Q4 and importantly did not follow the usual seasonality of decreasing DSO in Q4. This is a yellow flag.
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