TICO
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🚨 FREE PLAYER PROP (8-2 L10!!!) 1u - Derik Queen (NOP) OVER 14.5 Points (-110 @ MGM, -115 @ HR, -124 @ DK, -130 @ ESPN, -136 @ FD) ❤️ LOVE THIS LOOK. REPLY IF TAILING! Would you look at that! Another DQ prop! This time lets go the points. Borrego already told us the plan to close the season. The young guys are running these last two games and the vets are sitting. Last time Queen got 35 minutes without Zion and Murray he's gone over this number every single time. 6/6 26, 20, 21, 33, 17, 17. The floor is the line. My projection has him at 16.5 points in 35 minutes in this config with Murphy, Bey, Williamson, and Murray all off the floor. That's only his baseline, he's averaged 22.3 across the six games that match this filter. Boston's scary and why this is low, but what's their motivation levels right now? They're not game-planning for a rookie center in a 16-point blowout. Fears just dropped 40 and Poole had 34, that's where Boston's defensive attention goes. When the guards get walled off the points filter inside to Queen, and his touch in the non-restricted-area paint is where Boston is actually beatable. His shot chart shows 61% of looks at the rim but he's got real feel in the mid-paint floater zone where Boston ranks significantly worse. He doesn't need to dunk on Vucevic, just the floaters and face-ups that come with 35 minutes and 12 shots when nobody's scheming for you. #PlayerProps
🚨FREE PLAYER PROP!!! Lets go! 1u - Ben Saraf (BKN) OVER 15.5 Points (-103 @ BetOnline, -120 @ CZR, HR, -123 @ PIN, -124 @ DK) ❤️ LOVE THIS LOOK. REPLY IF TAILING! He's got the keys. The Nets are dressing nine players tonight. MPJ, Claxton, Clowney, Minott, Mann, Traore, Wolf, & Ziaire all out. When this happens, Saraf stops being a rookie waiting his turn and becomes THE guy who runs the entire offense. In the two games this skeleton crew has existed, he scored 22 against Sacramento and 19 against Milwaukee on Tuesday, leading the team in usage both nights, and posted games of 21 drives twice. Brooklyn drafted him 26th overall and has been shuttling him between the NBA and Long Island all season, waiting for the right moment to hand him the keys. These final games ARE that moment. Fernandez started him Tuesday, played him 35 minutes, and let him run every possession while veterans filled a finishing role around him. The G-League tape backs it up. He's been cooking in Long Island lately with games of 21, 40, 32, 21 points when playing 30+ minutes, averaging 19.5 on 54% over the L4 games. Books set this at 15.5 because they see a rookie averaging 6.6 on the season. That number includes 50 games where he was the sixth option at 10% usage while Wolf and Traore handled the ball. That version of Saraf doesn't exist tonight. Tonight's version is the kid Brooklyn is actively developing as their future point guard, attacking Indiana's 2nd-worst PnR ball handler defense and 3rd-worst restricted area defense with a 21-drive volume floor. The last time he saw the Pacers he dropped 12 in just 17 minutes as a reseve to Traroe (20 points). If you scale that to 32-35 minutes tonight and you're north of 20. Both teams are tanking, both teams are playing their kids, and Saraf is the best kid on the floor. #PlayerProps
GET THIS FREE PLAYER PROP IN!! 🔥 1u - Jared McCain (OKC) OVER 7.5 Points (-130 @ FD) ❤️ LIKE + REPLY IF TAILING!! ⤵️ Nice spot to buy back some McCain stock. With the Lakers ruling out their big-3 of Luka, LBJ, and Reaves + a 18.5 spread looming, this should quickly turn into a game that OKC likely cruises, and SGA rests the entire 4th quarter. Jalen Williams is OUT tonight, which opens up more primary scoring with the reserves next to Ajay Mitchell. According to CourtIQ, McCain averages 9.8 PTS Per-15 w/o SGA and J-Dub. #PlayerProps
📝🆓 MLB Play — 9-1 run🔥 👉 Nathan Eovaldi under 2.5 earned runs (Current price is -131 DK) Buying low on one of the more consistent pitchers in baseball. He has struggled to open up 2026, going 4.2IP (80 pitches) and 4IP (88 pitches) and allowing 5 and 6 earned runs, but his advanced stats look solid and he should see some substantial positive regression in the near future. Last year, he was under in 19/22 starts He’s facing the Mariners, who have REALLY struggled so far on offense. Their best hitters (Raleigh/JROD/Naylor) have been abysmal, and each of them are batting below .150. With the middle of the order ice cold, they haven’t gotten into any sort of rhythm. EO is also pitching at home in the most pitcher-friendly ballpark in baseball. Combine the ice cold offense with the perfect pitcher’s park, and it’ll be tough for Seattle to put up runs. It is far and away his best matchup so far We might see EO get pulled early as well. He has yet to complete 5 innings, and this Mariners lineup features 7 lefties. It’s certainly possible that the Rangers opt for a lefty/lefty matchup at some point during the 3rd time through the order. The bullpen isn’t in GREAT shape, but it’s not in bad shape either. They’ll probably be without Garcia and Beeks, but they still have 2 lefties available and 5-6 available arms. They have an off day on Thursday, so they can extend their guys a bit without too much concern. 2.5 earned run lines really shouldn’t exist for EO. If he pitches well tonight, we won’t see one for a WHILE. It’s time to grab the value now while it’s still here
No Siakam. No Nembhard. No Nesmith. And you’re telling me Obi Toppin isn’t getting this done? 20 minutes is all he needs.
📝🆓 Early MLB Play — 6-1 run🔥 👉 Jameson Taillon over 15.5 outs (Current price is -106 DK/FD) He’s up to 85 pitches, so he should see 90-95 here. If he can get through 5IP with 85 pitches or fewer (17 pitches per inning), he should come out for the 6th. In each of the last two seasons, he averaged 15 pitches per inning. He was over in 15/23 last year and 21/28 the year before. He has a strong matchup vs the Rays as well. They’re seeing the 5th fewest pitches per plate appearance with 3.81. If Taillon gets through 5IP with 85 pitches, he’d get to face 22-23 batters. Realistically, it should only take 20-21 batters (Taillon averages a hair over 1 runner allowed per inning). On paper, the Rays have performed well so far, but their numbers are inflated from their opening series vs the Cardinals, and regression is coming very, very soon. Outside of Yandy/Aranda/Caminero, they have a bottom-3 offense. Fortes and Fraley have been swinging it well, but that won’t last for much longer. I’ll gladly sell high on them here. The Cubs are also coming off a double header in which they used 6 relievers. They could use some length from Taillon here. News just came out that Matthew Boyd got placed on the IL as well, leaving the Cubs in a bad spot for tomorrow’s game. Overall, it’s a great spot and matchup for a 15.5 line
FREE PLAYER PROP!!! REPLY IF TAILING! 1u - Obi Toppin (IND) OVER 11.5 Points (-109 @ DK) Powered By @propsmadness Best available player active on the roster. No Siakam. Jarrace and Sheppard both got scratched. He should lead the team in usage rate when he's on the court. When owning a 25%+ usage rate and playing limited minutes (I'll project 16-20), he averages 12.7 PTS and clears this line in 7 of 9 games. Cavs are by no means a scary matchup. Both Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley are not playing. Thomas Bryant will be challenging him at the rim instead. #PlayerProps
📝🆓 For the MLB Sweep🧹🧹 Jesus Luzardo under 5.5 hits allowed (Current price is -115 HR) We cashed Nola over 17.5 outs and it’s time to fade the Rockies again. It really just comes down to him facing the worst team in baseball. He allows less than a hit per inning, so even with 6IP, he likely stays under this line — especially given the matchup Again (from the Nola write-up), he’s a high strikeout pitcher, which can elevate his pitch count and shorten his outing. When his control is off, he doesn’t usually give up hits… he gives up walks, which helps us. There’s a realistic chance he only goes 5IP if his control is off as well.
You make the call: should pitches that are 99.9%+ out of the zone like this be a strike?
I love today's slate! Give me 60+ L/RT/COMMENTS below this post, and I will drop the #2 and #3 PLAY from today's slate! 1u C.Flagg (Mavs) o23.5 [DraftKings] 1.91 Before I even begin writing any kind of analysis, it’s worth quoting Jason Kidd from a few days ago regarding Cooper Flagg: “Yeah, it’s a big priority. It’s a big award — you’re only a rookie once. Cooper has to do his part, and he is. He’s having a historic year. When you put his numbers up against past rookies who have won, it’s clear-cut — it’s not even close. Sometimes voting can be influenced differently — popularity, trends — but strictly based on numbers, Cooper is as good as anybody.” Honestly, the analysis could stop right there. With that kind of statement, I fully expect a NUCLEAR USG rate for Flagg down the stretch — we’re talking about near-solo performances where he’ll have absolutely no hesitation taking ~25 shots per game. Matchup-wise, it’s hard to find a better opponent for his scoring profile than the Orlando Magic. Orlando runs a heavy switch scheme, defending 1-on-1 on the perimeter while their bigs sit in a deep, deep drop, which consistently allows high-usage players to outperform their averages against them. From a statistical standpoint, Orlando allows: #10 most transition points, #7 most points to opposing PnR ball-handlers, and #6 most free throws across the season — and Flagg generates nearly 60% of his total scoring from these exact areas.His most dominant scoring zone comes from SMR (short mid-range), where Orlando allows the #5 most points in the league, and in pull-up situations, they allow the #2 most points league-wide. With Dallas still heavily depleted due to injuries, I’m expecting 20+ FGA from Flagg tonight. On top of that, Orlando has been one of the best defenses in the league against spot-up shooters for years, which further reinforces the idea that tonight’s usage will heavily revolve around Flagg and Marshall. Books have set Flagg’s FGA line at 18.5, but I personally project 20+ attempts — and with that level of volume, he’s cleared this line in 9 of his last 15 games.