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MAP Aktif Adiperkasa (MAPA ij), an interesting retail story…
open.substack.com/pub/tigerthesi…
Indonesia
Tiger Thesis
131 posts
Tiger Thesis
@TigerThesis
I write about Asian equities…
Katılım Ocak 2024
115 Takip Edilen198 Takipçiler
@taobanker flat and hard markets trains us to think harder…
actually, you learn more during bad times, in bull runs, i dont really recall learning anything 🤣
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@ljp0101 @MikeFritzell Yeah, i agree, things are actually getting better, it takes time iguess
Its bad but its not pitch black, and its getting lighter
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@TigerThesis @MikeFritzell It's a governance feature that there's no way to follow the law and its shifting interpretations while getting anything done. Every situation is a double bind. It really has gotten better over time though and there's reason for optimism.
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Banana republic. Indonesia needs people like Nadiem Makarim.
@
Founder of Indonesia's Gojek faces 18 years for alleged Chromebook graft s.nikkei.com/3Rns4Rf
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@TigerThesis He probably uncovered some form of corruption
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@MikeFritzell Yeah, a lot of speculation going on, but the most common one is that he did some bureaucratically wrong things although his intent was not wrong or bad…
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@TigerThesis He must have ruffled some feathers? There's no way that the Chromebook accusations justify the arrest
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Tiger Thesis retweetledi
One of the coolest companies in Asia...
Min Choi@minchoi
Holy smokes... Unitree just made a production-ready manned mecha for $650,000. it transforms. and it’s technically a civilian vehicle. we are so back.
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i think Shift Up is interestinv because it exploited a gap that many Western AAA studios ignored: high-production anime-style games with strong gameplay, strong character appeal, and efficient monetization(this is important, their games are lean)
While legacy publishers got bloated with massive budgets and slow development cycles, Shift Up stayed lean, moved fast, and understood modern gamer psychology from its mobile roots.
Goddess of Victory: Nikke(Shift Up’s AAA game) proved they could monetize globally at scale
so basically,
GenZ gamers -> Get used to their style and system -> This increases the chance of an IP to below up
and this “GenZ gamers” are growing exponentially
and whats crazy is its already happening…
In Korea, Japan China u start to see Shift Ups game characters in :
foods
minimarts…
etc etc
and yeah the margins are crazy, since they sell just software basically…
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@TigerThesis Interesting - what's the story?
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This year, I've started covering Korean and Thai companies. That's not a coincidence... they're trading at super-low levels
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a lot of people don't realize this but elite malls is one of the most proven and moated business models at this point
there was a big scare about this in the 2010's due to Amazon but now smart investors recognize that a top tier asset is basically invincible
Tiger Thesis@TigerThesis
As a local, i would say that Pakuwon is really undervalued, their niche compared to other real estate companies in Indonesia is that they consistently made and owned profitable lively malls, usually near residential area, and its not your usuall mall, its hard to explain, but its somwhat designed to match the needs of the residents around it… when i was a kid, i used to live in Surabaya(Pakuwon’s main area) and i literally lived near its mall PTC, and the mall sort of grew up with me and my friends… with the auties in their food stalls, the grocery store, etc etc…. then i moved to Jakarta.. they also have a mall like that here the location is basically a moat i think
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As a local, i would say that Pakuwon is really undervalued, their niche compared to other real estate companies in Indonesia is that they consistently made and owned profitable lively malls, usually near residential area, and its not your usuall mall, its hard to explain, but its somwhat designed to match the needs of the residents around it…
when i was a kid, i used to live in Surabaya(Pakuwon’s main area) and i literally lived near its mall PTC, and the mall sort of grew up with me and my friends… with the auties in their food stalls, the grocery store, etc etc….
then i moved to Jakarta.. they also have a mall like that here
the location is basically a moat i think
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Pakuwon ...
possibly the cheapest real estate operator in the world...
I will likely buy some this week
taobanker@taobanker
My quant was messaging me about mall operator / real estate developer $PWON.JK and I'm thinking it might be necessary for me to get some exposure here. trading at like 4.5x ebitda with no debt and very successful track record of growing tangible book value. Might write this up.
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Munger has his checklists
Dalio has his principles
Fisher has his 15 points
Lynch has his 25 golden rules
Are yall not seeing this pattern 👀
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@jurnal_ekuitas Idk abt that, cant predict the future, im an Investor, not a wizard 🤣
I just position myself so that no matter what happens im fine ;)
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@TigerThesis Yes, BCA being the default banking option for most is the only saving grace. That can only hold for so long with a declining PPP and weaker economic activity that is highly correlated to the current administration's policies.
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Bank Central Asia (BBCA IJ)
Excessive Pessimism Amid a Perfect Storm…
open.substack.com/pub/tigerthesi…
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@MikeFritzell Actually, i think this is good news, i believe AI is mostly an amplifier of our own mind
Which is why real artists are way more superior in ai art then normal people are 🤣
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We're at the point of the cycle where pitches don't even say what the company is doing
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@jurnal_ekuitas I think there is still plenty of room for growth, even in Indonesia only.
as for margins, i think its still strong because of the CASA base BCA has
and also i would not say margins are “shrinking” materially 👀
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@TigerThesis Shrinking margins solely dependent on the Indonesian population with no international exposure (jago kandang) and currency depreciation pose significant risks to foreign investors.
Trading at 12.75x PER is a record historical low. But records are made to be broken.
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