Tim Carmichael

14.3K posts

Tim Carmichael

Tim Carmichael

@TimCarmichael3

Living the dream. No free lunch on Wall Street.

Monmouth Beach, NJ/Jupiter,FL Katılım Ekim 2012
1.3K Takip Edilen1K Takipçiler
Tim Carmichael
Tim Carmichael@TimCarmichael3·
$TGTX double top breakout—let’s see it it holds and continues to the upside. The stock has been VERY QUIET for some time — could it be ready for a PRIME TIME MOVE??💥
M Tremblay@mtpennystocks

$TGTX

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Tim Carmichael
Tim Carmichael@TimCarmichael3·
$CTMX A FAT UNDERWRITING FEE THAT COVERS AN ANALYST SALARY CAN MAKE $JEFf more bullish for sure💥💥💥
quantumup@Quantumup1

Jefferies reiterated $CTMX Buy/$16, and said: We spoke w/ mgmt following recent Ph1a topline to clarify several outstanding questions. $PFE MRK RHHBY DSNKY $ABBV Jefferies added: Varseta-M (masked EpCAM/Topo1 ADC) showed impressive results in late-line mCRC, with active dose narrowed to 8.6/ 10 mg/kg and updated dual Gl prophylaxis in dose optimization to select pivotal dose, with full package update (pivotal dose/ plan with supporting data) by YE26. With recent financing, we see good entry point at current value and expect stock move up into YE... While we all love to see more data, we think Varseta-M has been meaningfully derisked in a few ways including the absence of EpCAM-class toxicities in an expanded ~80 patient dataset and durability holding in a difficult 4L+ mCRC population (Topline, Debates). Narrative has shifted from "do we have a drug?" to "how can we best take on Varesta-M across the continuum of mCRC plus into other solid tumors?" Mgmt was candid that work remains (diarrhea AE mitigation and dose fine-tuning as active workstreams), but emphasized they had converged on doses that work, had raised capital for further development, and were prioritizing execution from here. We also note mgmt's continued effort to remain transparent and engaged w/ investors, mgmt booked back to back lately, reporting ~60+ meetings since our recent catch-up last week following topline results. Stock drivers we see from here: (1) incremental efficacy/ durability updates at chosen go-fwd dose; (2) evidence that mandated dual prophylaxis improves tolerability/ deliverability w/o eroding exposure/activity; (3) clarity on Gl toxicity mechanism/ algorithms to support pivotal design; (4) timing and design of a pivotal path initiating likely 1H27.

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Dustin
Dustin@r0ck3t23·
Jensen Huang just explained why China is winning the technology race in two sentences. Huang: “Our country’s leaders… they’re mostly lawyers. Most of their leaders are incredible engineers.” One country sends engineers to lead. The other sends lawyers. One builds. The other regulates what was already built. Huang: “They showed up at precisely the time when technology is going through that exponential.” China did not stumble into the AI era. They arrived engineered for it. The education system produces engineers at a scale the West refuses to match. The competition is not tough. It is Darwinian. The culture rewards builders. Not commentators. Not consultants. Builders. Then the accelerant. Open source. When your talent pool runs that deep and that hungry, you do not hoard breakthroughs. You release them. The community multiplies everything. What costs American companies a quarter, Chinese teams finish in weeks. Not because they are smarter. Because the entire system points one direction. Zero friction between idea and execution. No committee. No review board. No eighteen-month compliance process. Then Huang said the part that should terrify Washington. Huang: “Their country was built out of poverty.” Comfort makes nations careful. Poverty makes nations relentless. When you built everything from nothing, you do not slow down to protect it. You accelerate because you still taste what nothing felt like. America built its dominance with engineers. The highways. The moon landing. The semiconductor. The internet. Then it handed the keys to the lawyers. Compliance departments. Regulatory bodies. Oversight committees. Review processes for the review processes. Every layer of protection is a layer of friction. And friction is a luxury you cannot afford when your competitor rides an exponential curve. Fridman: “It’s a builder nation.” Huang: “Yeah, it’s a builder nation.” No pushback. No qualifier. The West is not being outspent. It is being out-structured. Engineers ask how do we build this faster. Lawyers ask how do we build this without getting sued. One of those questions wins the century. The other writes a detailed report about why it lost.
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George Noble
George Noble@gnoble79·
Private credit returns 11.5% on loans that yield 9.5%. Nobody asks how. I'll tell you how: Leverage. They take a portfolio of loans yielding 9.5%, lever it 2x, and the gross return doubles to 19%. Subtract financing costs and fees, hand the client 11.5%, and show them a chart with a line so smooth it would make Madoff jealous. That's the product Wall Street has been selling to pensions, endowments, insurance companies, and now your 401(k). They even gave it a nice name. "Private credit." There's a better name for it: volatility laundering. The returns aren't smooth because the risk is low. They're smooth because nobody is marking anything to market. The same people making the loans are the ones deciding what they're worth. When everything's going up, that's a feature. When it turns? It's a trapdoor. And we're watching the trapdoor open right now. Funds are gating redemptions across the industry. Loans are going from 100 cents on the dollar to zero in a single quarter. The biggest asset managers on earth are telling investors: "Sorry, you can't have your money back." And none of this should surprise anyone who's been paying attention. Every cycle produces the SAME SCHEME wearing a different outfit. Junk bonds in the 80s. Mortgage-backed securities in 2007. Both sold the identical promise - equity-like returns with bond-like stability. Both ended the same way. Private credit is the 2020s version. Bigger numbers. Fancier packaging. Same math. The leverage is the tell. Any time someone shows you returns that look too good for the underlying asset, there's leverage hiding somewhere in the structure. And leverage doesn't create returns... It amplifies outcomes - in both directions. What pisses me off is that the people running this know exactly what they're doing. The risk disclosures are 400 pages long. The gates are buried in footnotes. It's not technically illegal. But doing something because you can get away with it - not because it's right - is a special kind of rotten. After 2008, NOBODY went to jail. Banks paid fines that amounted to rounding errors on their balance sheets. The message was clear: heads you win, tails the taxpayer covers it. So of course they did it again. Why wouldn't they? And here's where the realist in me takes over from the idealist: They're not going to let this blow up cleanly. They NEVER do... The playbook is extend, pretend, and print. Special vehicles. Special accommodations. More liquidity injected into a system that's already drowning in it. Every time they paper over a crisis, they confirm the only trade that matters. Gold pulled back hard this week - from $5,000 to around $4,575. Every shakeout over the past two years has been a buying opportunity. The structural case (debasement, central bank accumulation, collapsing confidence in sovereign debt) hasn't weakened. It's accelerated. The worse private credit gets, the more they'll have to print. And the more they print, the HIGHER gold goes. It's not complicated. It's just math that most people don't want to accept.
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Peter Brandt
Peter Brandt@PeterLBrandt·
I've traded futures markets for five decades. There is ZERO doubt in my mind that Trump money was behind this buying. There is NOOOOO law that prevents the Trump machine from manipulating futures markets. Inside trading is legal Trump family fortune grew today. Trump is playing markets like a fiddle
Adam Cochran (adamscochran.eth)@adamscochran

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

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Republicans against Trump
Republicans against Trump@RpsAgainstTrump·
The corruption in the Trump administration is insane. If Congress were doing its job, they’d be all over this. But Mike Johnson has turned Congress into a rubber stamp for Trump.
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Brian Allen
Brian Allen@allenanalysis·
🚨 BREAKING: Republican Senator John Kennedy just blamed Trump for the shutdown. “The Democrats offered a deal… we said accept it… Trump said no.” That deal would have paid TSA this week. This isn’t partisan spin. This is coming from inside the party.
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Coinvo
Coinvo@Coinvo·
BREAKING: 🇺🇸 SEC Enforcement Director Margaret Ryan who resigned last week, reportedly fought with agency bosses after calling for investigation into Trump family's misconduct.
Coinvo tweet mediaCoinvo tweet media
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Tim Carmichael
Tim Carmichael@TimCarmichael3·
$VKTX stay tuned💥
Mufaso@Mufaso7

$VKTX - Only a week left in the quarter. We should see Viking announce the IND for their DACRA (amylin calcintonin) compound any day now. BL has teased that this compound could have better Weight Loss efficacy than VK2735 and that if ph 1 is successful, Viking will immediately start a combo study between #VK2735 and their DACRA which could set a new bar for all to shoot for in both Obesity AND T2D. BTW- We could also hear any day that the ph3 T2D study for the VK2735 subq has completed enrollment. 😀

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