Timo R. Stewart

Kirjauutisia! Syyskuussa ilmestyy teos, jossa yhdistyy lempiteemani eli vanhat kartat, historia, uskonto ja konflikti. Ennakkoon tilaamalla voi käyttää alennuskoodia. #tietokirja #HistoriaKarttoina @gummeruskirjat

China’s state media turned the US-Iran conflict into an AI generated cartoon and captured the gist of the conflict pretty perfectly! Cinematically really well done! A+ trolling! Thanks to @AngelicaOung for adding subtitles!

"The cost of replacing the first four days' worth of munitions would be $20bn-26bn. The problem, however, is more to do with scarcity than cost. America is thought to have used more than 300 Tomahawk cruise missiles in the opening days of the war, but the Pentagon had planned to buy just 57 new ones in the current fiscal year. There have been no deliveries of THAAD interceptors since 2023 and the Pentagon has not placed any new orders this year. A puny 39 interceptors are slated for delivery in 2027—six years after they were ordered." economist.com/briefing/2026/…

Day 1: it's going to take a couple of days Day 20: ok we need 200 billion dollars

Slovenian PM’s letter

“They say that Spain is alone. They said the same when we recognized the State of Palestine, and then others followed. We are not alone. We are the first. Those defending the indefensible will be the ones left alone.” (Sánchez, March 9)

biden total spend on ukraine: $180 billion the pentagon just asked for $200 billion for war in iran.

These headlines are a week apart.

WARNER: You omitted a paragraph about Midnight Hammer 'obliterating' Iran's nuclear capability that's in your written report from your oral opening GABBARD: I recognized the time was running long WARNER: So you chose to omit the parts that contradicts the president

WSJ: Arab governments were furious about Israel’s attack and the U.S. failure to head it off, officials said. They had aggressively lobbied the Trump administration to stop U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure and now feel a target has been put on their backs, they said… America’s Arab allies are now fuming that they don’t seem to have any influence with the Trump administration despite heavy investments of time and money.

@ryhanen_aila Sellaista päivää tuskin näemme.

@TimoStewart Olisi jännä kerrankin nähdä, että Trump ei syyttelisi muita, asia mikä tahansa..

Kun sota ei etene toivotulla tavalla, alkaa jossain vaiheessa syyttely.

A brief summary of last night’s events: A. Iran emerged with the upper hand. It demonstrated once again that it will not hesitate to raise the level of escalation to defend its strategic assets — without any retreat on the issue of the Strait of Hormuz. This was entirely predictable. B. Yet another indication that this war lacks a coherent, pre-planned strategy. Once the regime did not collapse early on, it is no longer clear what the overarching strategy actually is. C. Trump was aware of the strike, but chose to look the other way once tensions escalated. This reflects an ongoing gap between Washington which may still be interested in preserving a future-facing Iran and Israel, whose approach appears aimed at systematically degrading the country’s entire infrastructure. D. The strike itself seems to have been driven by frustration: Iran is not yielding, and there is a desire to force outcomes (such as opening the Strait of Hormuz) without committing ground forces — and before external pressure brings the campaign to a halt. E. The strategic failure so far leaves Trump facing a difficult choice: escalate dramatically, potentially including boots on the ground, or move to stop the campaign now. F. At this stage, the fundamental questions remain unanswered: What is the ultimate objective? What are the exit ramps? What does success even look like? G. Instead, the conflict is drifting into a war of attrition — with no clear signs of regime collapse in Iran. Meanwhile, the president, having committed to the idea that Iran has effectively capitulated, may find it difficult to disengage while facing a visible disadvantage in the maritime arena and no resolution to the nuclear issue. Bottom line, last night’s events underscored just how unstructured this campaign has become — lacking strategic clarity, long-term planning, and a defined end state. At the same time, they exposed growing gaps between Israel and the United States, gaps that may widen further if similar outcomes repeat. And as always..just because something is operationally feasible does not mean it is strategically wise. One more point that must be stated clearly — Iran is not close to capitulating. #IranWar‌

@simonlebong Niin vastasi. Oli totuus tästä hyökkäyksestä mikä hyvänsä, Trumpin kiusaus syyttää kaikesta Israelia tulee kasvamaan. Itse hän ei tule virheitään myöntämään. x.com/marcowenjones/…

@TimoStewart Ja israel vastasi heti että kyllä oli tiedossa, se tehtiin yhteistyönä.

the shit is hitting the fan. Trump blundered into what he thought would be a few day “excursion” as he calls it, maybe Venezuela 2.0. That is not what Israel had in mind, the military has hit all of its targets. He has no idea what he is doing, his intelligence and other aides were appointed not to tell him anything he does not want to hear; not a single one of them can explain what the goal is. Congressional Republicans have their heads deep in the sand, and now talk of $200 billion Pentagon supplemental and sending more potential ground troops

I hate to be the bearer of bad news but if infrastructure like this 👇 gets blown up, as of this moment it will take at least a decade to recover from this war - and the truth is that the world's energy picture is probably changed forever. This single facility 👇produced roughly 20% of global LNG supply (aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/18…) and, as of 2011, had taken $70 billion to build (energyintel.com/0000017b-a7be-…). What makes this even worse is that Iran's strike on this was retaliation after Israel attacked their South Pars gas field which draws from the same natural gas reservoir, which is the world's largest by far (9,700 km² - about the size of Qatar itself). Heck, on the list of the 25 largest natural gas fields (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n…) this single reservoir holds roughly 40% of their combined recoverable reserves - and is nearly 6 times bigger than the 2nd biggest field in the world. And, unlike many of the others on the list, it's only at 10% depletion (meaning 90% of the gas is still there). Which means that, probably for many years, a huge share of the gas from the world's largest reservoir simply won't be extractable, as infrastructure on both sides - Qatar's and Iran's - has now been blown up. From a global energy supply perspective, we're deep into worst-case scenario territory.

This is performative nonsense aimed at Western audiences. Those daily pogroms in the West Bank wouldn't happen without the support of the IDF

Trump is losing control of this war.

@arnivuo Siltä vähän näyttää.

@TimoStewart Kommenteista päätellen taisi kolahtaa.

Päteekö tämä kaikkiin hyökkäyssotaa käyviin maihin?

This is probably the most important article of the month: an op-ed by Oman's Foreign Minister, who mediated the talks between the U.S. and Iran, in which he writes that the U.S. "has lost control of its foreign policy" to Israel. He repeats that a deal was possible as an outcome of the talks (something confirmed by the UK's National Security Advisor, who also attended: x.com/i/status/20341…) and that the military strike by the U.S. and Israel was "a shock." Interestingly, given he is one of Iran's neighbors and given that Oman has been struck multiple times by Iran since the war began (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2026_Iran…), he writes that "Iran’s retaliation against what it claims are American targets on the territory of its neighbours was an inevitable result" of the U.S.-Israeli attack. He describes it as "probably the only rational option available to the Iranian leadership." He says the war "endangers" the region's entire "economic model in which global sport, tourism, aviation and technology were to play an important role." He adds that "if this had not been anticipated by the architects of this war, that was surely a grave miscalculation." But, he adds, the "greatest miscalculation" of all for the U.S. "was allowing itself to be drawn into this war in the first place." In his view this was the doing of "Israel’s leadership" who "persuaded America that Iran had been so weakened by sanctions, internal divisions and the American-Israeli bombings of its nuclear sites last June, that an unconditional surrender would swiftly follow the initial assault and the assassination of the supreme leader." Obviously, this proved completely wrong, and the U.S. is now in a quagmire. He says that, given this, "America’s friends have a responsibility to tell the truth," which is that "there are two parties to this war who have nothing to gain from it," namely "Iran and America." He says that all of the U.S. interests in the region (end to nuclear proliferation, secure energy supply chains, investment opportunities) are "best achieved with Iran at peace." As he writes, "this is an uncomfortable truth to tell, because it involves indicating the extent to which America has lost control of its own foreign policy. But it must be told." He then proposes a couple of paths to get back to the negotiating table, although he recognizes how difficult it would be for Iran "to return to dialogue with an administration that twice switched abruptly from talks to bombing and assassination." That's perhaps the most profound damage Trump did during this entire episode: the complete discrediting of diplomacy. If Iran was taught anything, it is: don't negotiate with the U.S., it's a trap that will literally kill you. The great irony of the man who sold himself as a dealmaker is that he taught the world one thing: don't make deals with my country. Link to the article: economist.com/by-invitation/…

@mtvaisanen Onnittelut. Kukaan ei ole vielä saanut palaveeraamista kuulostamaan yhtä tarpeelliselta.

@TimoStewart Tarkoitus pyhittää keinot. Usa ja Israel tekee palveluksen koko sivistyneelle lännelle ja Iranin kansalle. Nämä 2 maata ei palaveeraa vaan toimii tarvittaessa.