Why the same event trades at different prices on different venues 🌾 Pull up the same question on several prediction venues and you'll usually find several prices. That's not an error - it's structure. - Separate books. Each venue matches its own orders; no liquidity is shared between them, so each book settles at its own equilibrium. - Different costs. Fee schedules differ, and prices adjust to carry them. - Different rails. One book settles in on-chain stablecoins, another through a brokerage in dollars - different collateral, different participants. - Different access. Who can trade each venue varies by geography and onboarding, so the crowds aren't the same crowd. - Sometimes, different questions. Contract wording and resolution sources vary between venues - two markets that look identical can be settling against different rules. Arbitrage narrows the gaps, but it needs capital parked on multiple venues at once, so the gaps persist - mainstream guides now recommend accounts on several platforms just to shop the same outcome. Fragmented books are the cost of a category growing this fast. Not advice. Today, the bread.hot terminal connects to one of those books - Polymarket.
